1
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Technical and Derivative
s
Review
|September 16, 2022
We finally succumbed to the global weakness
Sensex (58841) / Nifty (17531)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
We had a pleasant start on Monday taking US market’s previous Friday’s rally into consideration. We challenged 18000 but failed to
sustain on the same day itself. But since it was merely a formality, the index opened beyond this psychological level on the following
day. In this process, the Nifty registered a highest close in last eight months. Everything looked hunky dory as we were poised to
make a move towards previous highs. Suddenly, the US markets tumbled on Tuesday on the back of rising inflation data. This
resulted in a massive gap down but surprisingly, our markets managed to weather the storm. We defended key levels and traded
with a positive bias for couple of trading sessions. However, the Friday’s session turned out to be a nightmare as we witnessed a
sustained selling throughout the session to conclude the week with 1.70% cut, marginally above 17500.
Generally, we say ‘All’s well that ends well’ but this time it’s the exact opposite. We had a perfect start of the week, but the end was
certainly not everyone would have wished for. The broader structure remains bullish but with Nifty closing convincingly below 17600
has dented the intermediate structure for sure. Pricewise, it resembles a ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern on daily time frame chart,
which does not augur well for the bulls. If this pattern proves its significance, we may see further correction towards 17200 – 17000
in the coming week. But as of now, we do not want to fall into this camp. We would rather reassess the situation in the first half of
the coming week. As far as support is concerned, 17400 we are seeing as a key support. The moment we see Nifty sliding below it,
we may see correction getting extended in the market. On the flipside, if Nifty has to find its mojo back, it needs to go beyond
Friday’s high of 17820 on a closing basis. So meanwhile, any minor bounce back towards 17650 – 17750 should ideally be used to
exit longs.
After Friday’s close, we would like to adopt a wait and watch approach and let’s see how global market performs over the weekend.
Traders are advised not to get intimidated by Friday’s correction, rather keep a close tab on above mentioned scenarios. Also, one
should avoid trading aggressively till the time market stabilizes from this turbulence. Sectorally, the recent leader, BANKNIFTY is
placed at an interesting juncture. Hopefully, it manages to lift the overall sentiments in the coming week.
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Review
|September 16, 2022
Tentativeness at higher grounds, PCR plunged to 0.76
Nifty spot closed at 17530.85 this week, against a close of 17833.35 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.10 to 0.76
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.65%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 4.43%
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 35.30 against a premium of 33.10 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 92.45 points.
The Indian equity market has seen a roller coaster week, wherein the pleasant start pared down in the latter half. Eventually, the
selloff aggravated in the last trading session, and the benchmark index slipped into red to settle near the 17500 zone. There have
been mixed positions in the F&O space throughout the week, as we witnessed strong long formation followed by unwinding by the
weekend. On the options front, piling up of positions is visible in the 17500-17400 put strikes, indicating nearby support formation,
while any further breach could disrupt the sentiments. While on the higher end, 17800 call strike have seen piling up of positions,
followed by maximum OI concentration at 18000 call strike. Meanwhile, the stronger hands have curtailed from adding longs in cash
and future segments in the latter period. Simultaneously, they expanded their ‘Long Short Ratio’, which surged to 28% from 22%
WoW. Going ahead, it is advisable to keep a close tab on the mentioned levels as any breakthrough from the range could dictate the
near-term trend in the index and stay abreast with global developments.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
PVR 4901501 33.16 1762.15 (2.63)
INFY 47084700 30.46 1381.00 (8.90)
HONAUT 14865 26.73 40590.55 (2.98)
ABBOTINDIA 63000 22.66 17595.95 (4.30)
BALKRISIND 3411000 20.56 1913.35 (4.33)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
INDIACEM 19676500 37.79 266.00 13.72
APOLLOTYRE 14766500 23.65 284.20 3.53
ACC 4706000 21.64 2620.95 10.22
MFSL 2074800 17.22 823.75 3.18
GRANULES 11112000 12.70 317.35 2.16
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For Private Circulation Only
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Review
|September 16, 2022
Sameet Chavan
C
hief Analyst
–
Technical
& Derivatives
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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