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Finally, some respite globally, 17000 – 16800 proved its mettle
Sensex (57920) / Nifty (17186)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Last week, over the weekend, once again global sentiments dampened which resulted in a massive gap down opening on Monday.
But fortunately, our markets managed to give V-shaped recovery to reclaim the 17200 mark at the close. On the subsequent session,
the benchmark index Nifty failed to sustain at higher levels and due to immense selling in some of the heavyweight pockets, we
finally surrendered 17000 on a closing basis. For the next couple of sessions, we did see some range bound action with key levels
being held on either side. However, On Friday, our markets stated the session with a huge bump up, courtesy to spectacular
overnight rally in US bourses. Once again at higher levels, tentative traders chose to take some money off the table. This resulted in
trimming some gains but despite this, Nifty managed to conclude the week tad below 17200 by restricting the weekly losses to
merely seven tenths of a percent.
It was a bit challenging week as markets remained clueless for the most part of the week. In fact, on Friday when things started to
look a bit rosy, the last hour profit booking reduced the excitement level among the market participants. Nevertheless, Nifty
defending key support zone (cluster of 89-day EMA and 200-day SMA) amid an uncertainty, bodes well for the bulls. Going ahead,
we will not be surprised to see global relief extending a bit, which will provide the much-needed impetus to stronger markets like us.
As far as supports are concerned, 17000 – 16800 has proved its mettle and it continues to be a sacrosanct zone for the coming week
as well. On the flipside, if we find tiny support also from the global peers, the Nifty is good to go beyond the study wall of 17400.
This will help us find our mojo back and, in this case, we would certainly gear up for a pre-Diwali rally in our market. Hopefully, our
anticipation becomes the reality in the coming week as this will bring back the wider smile back in traders’ fraternity. It’s advisable
to continue with an optimistic approach and ideally one should keep focusing on thematic movers which are likely to provide better
trading opportunities.
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Short Formation
FIIs ‘Long Short Ratio’ improved to 23%
Nifty spot closed at 17185.70 this week, against a close of 17314.65 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.97 to 0.91
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 1.60%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 7.13%
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 9.80 against a premium of 14.20 points to its spot in the previous week. Next
month’s future is trading at a premium of 49.15 points.
It was a week of consolidation, as after a weak start our markets defended key support levels and backed by improved global cues
bounced back on Friday. There was tentativeness at higher levels as Nifty eventually ended the week with a cut of 0.74% against the
previous week close. In F&O space, fresh short formations are seen in Nifty whereas in Bank Nifty short covering was seen. Stronger
hands continued with their selling streak in the cash segment but covered some of their shorts in the Index futures. Hence the FIIs
‘Long Short Ratio’ has slightly improved from 20% to 23%. As per the option chain analysis, the highest build-up on the CALL side is
seen at 18000 strike before that decent positions are also visible at 17500 strike. On the PUT side, we are not witnessing any major
formation but 17000 remains a key support zone to watch. Considering no major significant change in data, we sense, the Index may
continue to consolidate in a range and traders are advised to use dips to create long positions.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
MFSL 2421900 62.49 714.55 (7.48)
CROMPTON 6180000 30.75 381.65 (3.72)
TATAMOTORS 83701650 26.81 395.85 (3.97)
INDIAMART 283050 26.39 4291.25 (3.14)
WIPRO 49339000 25.60 377.20 (7.79)
Weekly change in OI
Long Fo
rmation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
COFORGE 947850 40.48 3602.15 0.68
LTI 1432200 16.78 4687.30 1.29
HCLTECH 18768400 16.30 993.90 4.56
HDFCBANK 64342850 13.87 1444.10 0.48
FEDERALBNK 105080000 13.37 130.55 6.14
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Sameet Chavan
C
hief Analyst
–
Technical
& Derivati
ves
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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