For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review |November 13, 2023
A week of consolidation ends on a positive note, Nifty reclaims 19400
Sensex (64905) / Nifty (19425)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future Outlook
The Nifty benchmark index experienced a subdued week that initially started with robust gap-up opening. However, as the week
progressed, there was lack of sustained trading momentum, resulting in choppy price movements within a 150-point range
throughout the week. Eventually, the week concluded with gains of around a percent, reclaiming the 19400 level on a weekly basis.
In the last two weeks of November, the bulls staged a notable comeback, leading to consistent gains in the benchmark. However,
prices now seem to be losing steam as prices have approached a crucial resistance zone, and the same is evident in the formation of
small-bodied candles on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, despite the recovery in the past two weeks, prices still remain within
the trading range of big bearish candle from the last week of October. The current price level has reached a key resistance zone
between 19460 and 19500, marked by the 61.8% retracement level, which holds technical significance. This zone previously acted as
a formidable hurdle during the last bounce-back. Consequently, the prices have reached a pivotal juncture, and the next directional
move hinges on how they respond to this zone. A sustained breakout above this level could propel prices toward the descending
trend line resistance around 19600 and then towards the previous swing high of 19850. Conversely, a failure to breach this hurdle
might trigger a sell-off, causing prices to first retest the bullish gap created this week around the 19300 - 19270 zone and then
further lower.
Given the festive and truncated trading week , consolidation is likely to continue, and traders are advised to closely monitor the
aforementioned levels for informed trading decisions. Despite the overall choppiness in key indices, individual counters displayed
more stable movements. Toward the end of the week, activity within this space dwindled, prompting traders focused on stock-
specific trades to adopt a highly selective approach.
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Technical and Derivatives Review |November 13, 2023
Short Formation
LSR remains unchanged at 18% amidst muted action
Nifty spot closed at 19425.35 this week, against a close of 19230.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased to 1.04 from 0.96 on
a weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is at 4.89%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 0.45%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 57.30 against a premium of 73 points to its spot in the previous week. Next
month’s future is trading at a premium of 156.70 points.
The Indian Equity market witnessed a lackluster week of trade, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50 managed to surge
consecutively for the second week to reclaim 19400 (spot levels). On the derivatives front, there has been no significant change in
Nifty, while long addition was seen in Bank Nifty on a weekly basis. On the options front, decent piling is seen at 19400-19300 put
strikes, indicating an upshift in support. On the higher end, the highest OI concentration is seen at 19500 call strike, indicating a stiff
hurdle for the upcoming week. FIIs remained net sellers in equities on a net basis, while a mixed bag of trades was seen in index
futures segments throughout the week resulting in no alterations in the Long Short Ratio at 18% WoW. Considering the recent data,
our market seems slightly tentative as it reached pivotal resistance, hence, one needs to maintain caution and follow a stock-centric
approach until sustainable strength returns to the market.
*Report as per Friday, 10
November 2023 closing.
Chg (%)
BANKBARODA 147057300 23.87 195.15 (4.46)
MUTHOOTFIN 6625300 23.13 1254.55 (5.56)
ZEEL 107883000 14.72 250.15 (9.48)
PEL 10485750 10.32 948.15 (4.31)
NATIONALUM 70042500 10.04 90.75 (3.04)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Chg (%)
ONGC 41676250 31.26 194.85 2.77
JKCEMENT 826750 23.58 3468.65 9.87
TRENT 3817200 14.99 2496.70 13.35
AUROPHARMA 18603200 14.91 979.80 14.54
GRANULES 10286000 13.56 368.40 4.08
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Technical and Derivatives Review |November 13, 2023
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
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