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Nifty surrenders 16000, recent lows in jeopardy
Sensex (52794) / Nifty (15782)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Monday’s session started on a nervous note as global sentiments remained nervous over the weekend. The index remained in a
range throughout the first half of the week and despite some challenges, Nifty managed to hold 16000 on a closing basis. However,
on Thursday, the banking finally succumbed to the sell off, leading Nifty below the psychological point to mark lowest close in last
ten months. On Friday, we started off significantly higher on the back of global relief; but once again our market failed to sustain at
higher levels and eventually erased all gains in the latter half. With this, Nifty once again lost nearly 4% on a weekly basis.
The global macro factors have weighed down heavily on financial markets across the globe and we are certainly not spared with it.
The oversold market is in a denial mode to give small recovery, in fact, Friday’s rebound got completely sold into towards the fag
end. This certainly does not augur well for the bulls. The recent low of 15671 is not far from current levels now and the moment we
slide below it, it will create a panic kind of situation in the market. Below this, 15350 - 15200 are the next levels to watch out for. On
the flipside, 16000 - 16200 has now become a stiff hurdle. First sign of relief is possible only above these levels. Till this time, one
should avoid trading aggressively in the market.
If we take glance at the weekly time frame chart, we can see sheet anchor in the form of ’89-EMA’ placed around 15600. Historically,
this moving average has proved it’s mettle and has provided cushion to severe falls. It would be very interesting to see how market
behaves around it. Hence, although the trend is strongly bearish at this moment, we advise investors with a slightly broader time
frame, should start nibbling in quality propositions in a staggered manner. Also, since the global factors are driving the markets
completely, traders should keep a close tab on all these developments.
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FIIs halts their selling in index futures
Nifty spot closed at 15782.15 this week, against a close of 16419.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.74 to 0.73.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.78%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 4.53%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 4.45 points against a premium of 8.15 points to its spot. Next month’s future
is trading at a premium of 3.85 points.
It was the second consecutive week of selling pressure in our Indian equity market, the benchmark index remained in the tight grip
of bears and any pullback move were being sold into to settle the week tad below 15800 with a cut of almost four percent.
Surprising, despite decent sell-off we could hardly see fresh shorts in Nifty, the correction was mainly due to long unwinding.
However, we observed few shorts in banking index, but the quantum wasnt significant considering the price. Stronger hand
continued to curb liquidity from equity market but preferred covering their shorts in index futures segment on Friday. On options
front, hardly any build-up was seen in both call and put option; however, some unwinding was seen in 15900 strike. At this point in
time, market has an immediate support 15600; whereas, sustainable pullback move beyond the resistance of 16100-16200 shall be a
positive development. Traders are advised staying light as volatility is likely to stay on the higher side.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
GNFC 5913700 60.91 617.95 (23.07)
HONAUT 10260 52.34 34019.85 (14.51)
INDUSTOWER 17460800 37.63 183.05 (8.34)
SRF 4084875 27.79 2232.80 (3.06)
LTI 2253600 26.06 4116.00 (10.69)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
NAVINFLUOR 400275 33.16 3921.65 5.60
BAJAJ-AUTO 3227750 21.14 3631.40 3.87
COLPAL 3011400 13.36 1597.35 1.01
PVR 2606428 9.88 1747.80 2.72
MRF 124500 9.71 71572.70 4.56
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Sameet Chavan
Technical & Derivatives
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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