Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - April 13, 2023

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 13, 2023

Winning streak continues for the third consecutive week; Nifty reclaims 17800

Sensex (60431) / Nifty (17828)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future outlook

After an extended weekend, our markets started with a small upside gap on Monday; however, post the opening there was no major

traction within the key indices. As the week progressed, the optimism was back, as Nifty continued with its northward journey

where the bulls capitalized on every Intra-week dip. The winning streak continued for the third consecutive week as Nifty reclaimed

17800 on a weekly basis.

Despite being a truncated week, the bulls added another 1.30% to their kitty on a week-on-week basis. With this, prices have

comfortably closed above the March swing high of 17800. This is a very positive development because prices have broken above a

major swing high for the first time in this calendar year. From a technical perspective, there is a ‘Rounding Bottom’ formation visible

on the daily time frame chart, which augurs well for the bulls. In addition, if we observe the weekly chart, we can see a fresh buy

signal in the RSI smoothened with its signal line. This indicates a continuation of up move in the near term. Having said that, one

should avoid being complacent as this recent up-move has been very steep without any breather and hence, some in-between

pause or mild profit booking cannot be ruled out. Hence, traders should prefer to take some money off the table at higher levels,

whereas, in case of any dips, one should use it as an opportunity to add bullish bets. With the continuous nine days winning streak,

the support level continues to shift higher as we now see immediate support in the zone of 17700 - 17600; whereas 200-SMA

around 17500 is likely to act as a sacrosanct level. On the flip side, the next set of resistance is seen at the psychological level of

18000 followed by the next swing high of 18137.

The major action during the week was seen outside the index as many front-line and mid-cap counters gave mesmerizing moves.

Traders should continue to focus on such potential movers; however, one needs to be very selective as the low-hanging fruit is

already gone.

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 13, 2023

Sho

rt Form

ion

Encouraging F&O data; Long Short Ratio soared to 39%

Nifty spot closed at 17828.00 this week, against a close of 17599.15 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.20 to 1.19 on

Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 7.55%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 6.59%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 51.65 against a premium of 45.05 points to its spot in the previous week.

Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 106.10 points.

The Indian equity markets had a splendid move for the third consecutive week, wherein Nifty had a winning streak for nine

consecutive sessions and settled above 17800, procuring 1.30 percent in the week. On the derivatives front, we noticed a

meaningful short covering of positions in both key indices as the week went by. The stronger hands continued to curtail their shorts

in the system, leading advancement in the ‘Long Short Ratio’ to 39% from 18% on a weekly basis. On the options front, fresh writing

was seen in the 17800 put strike, followed by considerable piling in 17700-17500 PE, indicating an upward shift in the support base.

On the flip side, the highest OI concentration is seen at the 18000-call strike, which is likely to be seen as the major hurdle for the

time being. Considering the above data point, we remain upbeat and expect any intra-week blip to be utilized to add fresh longs in

the system.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

INFY 38411600 15.55 1390.05 (2.52)

PETRONET 14841000 15.34 228.50 (3.34)

LICHSGFIN 16554000 15.33 328.60 (2.64)

INDUSTOWER 33202400 12.05 136.65 (3.50)

LTIM 1662000 10.78 4649.50 (2.97)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

BAJAJ-AUTO 2746250 41.87 4269.45 6.07

AUBANK 16710000 36.25 673.60 19.37

ONGC 54720050 26.45 159.45 5.35

TVSMOTOR 6684300 18.99 1161.80 5.74

GODREJPROP 5323975 16.49 1284.85 13.62

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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 13, 2023

Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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