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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 12, 2022

Global uncertainty subsides, Nifty reclaims 16600

Sensex (55550) / Nifty (16630)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future outlook

Markets had a terrible start to the week gone by as tensions escalated between Russia and Ukraine over the previous weekend. This

resulted in a massive gap down on Monday. Fortunately, the damage was not much thereafter as we witnessed Nifty making

attempts of stabilizing around 15700. Post this, the global uncertainty subsided a bit which resulted into a complete V-shaped

recovery in the following two sessions. Since the market was deeply oversold, the speed at which it made a comeback, was really

remarkable. Eventually, with some range bound movement on Friday, Nifty ended the week with decent gains over couple of a

percent.

It was certainly an action packed week for our markets and although, the beginning was a bit unpleasant, we must cherish the

spectacular recovery we had in the latter half of the week. Until last week, we were a bit convinced of having one more round of

selling to enter sub-16000 terrain. Market did have a short lived appearance below this; but fortunately, all’s well that ends well.

Now the way market has rebounded sharply, it has all the ingredients needed for confirming a bottom. But since the current

situation is connected to war kind of scenario, we are waiting for further confirmation beyond certain levels but practically, we have

already changed our stance in last couple of sessions. As far as levels are concerned, 16750 – 16800 remains to be a key hurdle and

any sustainable move above this would confirm Tuesday’s low as a bottom. On the flipside, 16450 followed by 16200 are to be seen

as immediate supports.

Going ahead, we expect some consolidation in key indices and lot of adjustment would continue to happen in individual stocks. For

the coming week, in case of index consolidation, one should focus on stock specific moves, which are likely to continue and can

provide excellent trading opportunities.

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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 12, 2022

PCR-OI finally normalises above 1

Nifty spot closed at 16630.45 this week, against a close of 16245.35 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.85 to 1.03.

The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 1.90%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 6.69%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 17.30 points against a premium of 13.60 points to its spot. Next month future

is trading at a premium of 64.40 points.

We began the week with a downside gap and then went to touch 15700; but luckily no further damage was observed in fact index

rebounded with a force after to reclaim 16750 on the weekly expiry session. On Friday, the Nifty entered the consolidation mood

and hence we ended the week tad above 16600. As far as F&O activities are concerned, we saw blend of long formation and short

covering in Nifty and BankNifty. In Nifty options, the buildup remained scattered in call as well as put options; however, 16500 put

and 17000 call strikes are attracting traders’ attention. Stronger hands remained net sellers in equity and added mixed bets in index

futures segment with majority on the short side. Form the coming week, 16400-16500 should we the support zone; whereas

resistance is placed around 16700-16800 zone. Traders are advocated trading with a positive bias and should continue focusing

individual space.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

COFORGE

1764800 248.64 4312.85 (6.74)

JKCEMENT 496825 76.12 2306.35 (12.02)

GSPL 2138600 69.54 268.35 (4.40)

WHIRLPOOL 647500 47.16 1579.85 (3.22)

MOTHERSUMI 35346500 44.73 131.85 (3.62)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

ONGC

46107600 64.78 175.20 7.85

CHAMBLFERT 2472000 38.14 425.00 9.61

GNFC 3646500 32.88 708.85 18.13

ATUL 116550 29.72 9555.15 11.89

BALRAMCHIN 9198400 28.38 489.70 16.19

Short Format

ion

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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 12, 2022

Sameet Chavan

Chief Analyst

–

Technical & Derivatives

sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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