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Technical and Derivatives Review |February 10, 2023
Market awaits solid trigger to end the slumber phase
Sensex (60683) / Nifty (17856)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
After couple of weeks of dramatic moves with respect to ADANI saga, things seemed to have come to an equilibrium towards the fag
end of previous week. We started the proceedings on Monday on a soft note and remained sluggish for the first couple of sessions.
This was followed by some promising action on the subsequent sessions. Nifty approached the higher end of recent trading range;
but once again with lack of conviction, our markets looked a bit tentative on Friday to conclude the session almost at previous
week’s close.
We have certainly weathered the storm and market has digested most of the pain from recent fiasco. Now since we are trading
around the crucial juncture, market is awaiting some solid trigger to come of the recent slumber phase. The breakout could happen
either side but if we have to predict one, we would certainly like to stay positive. Hopefully, the contraction of range breaks out
higher and the trend deciding level to watch out for would be 18000. This will confirm the completion of long corrective phase. We
can then see some exuberant moves in market as the sentiments are likely to improve drastically post the breakout. On the flipside,
the support range is visible around 17800 - 17700.
We reiterate that if benchmark has to surpass the 18000 mark, the heavyweight banking space needs to participate heavily. This
week, banking stocks kept on sulking and hence, we failed to make a move beyond these hurdles. Hopefully it finds its mojo soon
and propels market higher. Apart from this, the broader market did well towards the latter half of the week. The way NIFTY
MIDCAP50 index is shaped up, we remain hopeful to see some encouraging moves in the coming week.
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Technical and Derivatives Review |February 10, 2023
rt Form
Market remains indecisive, amidst mixed F&O data
Nifty spot closed at 17856.50 this week, against a close of 17854.05 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.17 to 1.05 on
Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.24%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 5%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 20.60 against a premium of 48.10 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 121.05 points.
The Indian equity market has witnessed a lackluster week of trade, wherein the key indices remained in a slender range with no
clarity in the trend. In the F&O segment, we saw a mixed bag move throughout the week, and the stronger hands covered some of
their shorts in the system. On the options front, maximum OI concentration is seen at 17800 put strike, indicating nearby support for
Nifty. On the flip side, the 18000-call strike has the highest OI concentration, indicating stiff resistance in a comparable period. The
‘Long Short ratio’ has marginally declined to 18% from 19% on a weekly basis. The positioning looks a bit oversold, and any short
covering should be an encouraging sign for our markets. We need to keep a close tab on the mentioned levels, as any breakthrough
could dictate the near-term trend in the market.
Chg (%)
UBL 1760800 42.41 1472.90 (6.69)
INDIGO 3365100 42.33 2036.05 (3.50)
TATASTEEL 202070000 29.00 109.20 (9.34)
LICHSGFIN 11668000 19.72 379.30 (5.29)
PAGEIND 130500 19.42 38769.25 (3.03)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Chg (%)
ALKEM 828800 224.00 3268.25 7.60
CUMMINSIND 2539800 87.38 1594.10 10.28
ABB 1953250 36.47 3176.10 12.82
NAUKRI 1871125 29.92 3830.25 4.26
DELTACORP 18180400 16.09 205.05 7.58
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Technical and Derivatives Review |February 10, 2023
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
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