Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - October 9, 2023

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |October 09, 2023

Bulls defend key supports; but still not out of the woods

Sensex (65996) / Nifty (19653)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future Outlook

The October month commenced on a roller-coaster note, wherein the initial two days of the truncated week had a rough move for

the benchmark and even sneaked below the pivotal zone of 19500. During the second half, it made a smart rebound from the lows

and settled the week on a subdued note, procuring 0.08 percent to reclaim 19650 levels.

Technically, the truncated yet eventful week kept the participants on their toes with its whipsaw moves, but as we quote, ‘All’s well

that ends well.’ The improved global sentiments led to a strong rebound during the mid-week, which certainly can be seen with the

formation of an island bar on the daily time frame. However, the follow up move is still not convincing and hence, we would rather

wait for further developments to form a clear view. Also, the anticipated ‘status quo’ from the RBI MPC neither surprised nor

shocked the market. Though the recent developments have been captivating as Nifty formed a ‘Dragonfly Doji’ on the weekly charts,

one should not become complacent as we are not entirely out of the woods. From a technical point of view, the 19720-19750 zone

withholds the sturdy resistance, followed by the next cluster around 19800-19850 for the upcoming week. While on the lower end,

19580-19500 are to be seen as immediate supports. It would be important to defend the make or break level of 19300 in order to

avoid any kind of escalation in the coming week.

Meanwhile, it is advisable to keep a close tab on the developments in the BFSI space, as without their involvement, sustained moves

are unlikely. One needs to avoid aggressive bets for a while and should remain watchful on global developments.

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |October 09, 2023

Sho

Form

ion

PCR-OI normalizes above 1

Nifty spot closed at 19653.50 this week, against a close of 19638.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.03 to 1.12 on

a weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is at 2.32%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 14.80%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 25.00 against a premium of 70.70 points to its spot in the previous week.

Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 138.65 points.

The Indian equity market witnessed a volatile week. We witnessed decent profit booking the initial two days to sneak towards the

19350 odd zone. However, smart recovery latter days led to a weekly closing tad above the 19650 mark. We observed the addition

of mixed bets in the key indices during the week. On the options front, meaningful build-up was seen in 19600 put strikes.

Meanwhile, scattered piling of OI is seen from 19700-19800 CE, indicating tentativeness among call writers. Stronger hands

continued selling equities but covered a few short in the latter half of the week. However, Long Short Ratio witnessed a marginal fall

to 27% from 28% on a weekly basis. For now, traders should avoid being complacency and should stay abreast with global

developments till the trend gets clarity.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

DALBHARAT 1838500 37.92 2232.80 (7.62)

MARICO 13382400 31.15 539.85 (4.40)

SIEMENS 2352075 28.21 3550.65 (3.87)

AXISBANK 51959375 19.52 1006.00 (3.47)

SHRIRAMFIN 8652000 19.51 1855.45 (3.91)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

MGL 2666400 44.29 1119.40 8.36

COROMANDEL 1454600 21.03 1176.80 2.23

TCS 10631250 14.90 3630.30 2.91

TITAN 6127125 13.50 3323.35 4.88

BAJAJFINSV 11381000 12.77 1638.35 5.65

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |October 09, 2023

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

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For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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Technical and Derivatives Review |October 09, 2023

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