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Technical and Derivatives Review | September 09, 2021
Thinnest weekly range at record highs
Sensex (58305) / Nifty (17369)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Markets had a positive start on Monday and without wasting much of a time, Nifty continued with its streak of achieving new
milestones. During the first couple of sessions, Nifty clocked back to back fresh highs beyond 17400; but failed to close beyond it on
both the occasions. In the latter half, we saw some hint of profit booking but mighty bulls came back strongly not only to defend key
supports but also to lift the benchmark index beyond 17350 comfortably to mark highest ever weekly close.
The price action in key indices this week was extremely dull as we witnessed one of the thinnest weekly trading ranges for a long
time now. Although Nifty looked a bit uncomfortable around 17400 throughout this week, we did not see any major weakness
overall. The moment it falls by nearly a percent, the buying tends to happen immediately. As of now, clearly bulls are having a firm
grip on the market but as we have been mentioning since a week or so, they would find a bit difficult now going ahead. We reiterate
our observations for becoming slightly cautious at current levels. They are, 1) we can see Nifty reaching the 200% ‘Fibonacci
Retracement’ of the last year’s massive decline from Jan’20 high to March’20 low, 2) Time-wise, Nifty has entered 7th zone as per
‘Fibonacci Time Series’ on the monthly time frame chart.
It may look a bit contradictory to adopt a cautious stance when market is making new highs almost every day. But these mentioned
evidences have proved their efficacy in the past and hence cannot be overlooked. So let’s see how things shape up going ahead. As
far as levels are concerned, 17450 – 17500 would now be seen as sturdy wall; whereas on the flipside, the first sign of weakness
would come only after confirming a single day close below the support zone of 17300 – 17250. We advise traders to continue with a
stock centric approach by following strict stop losses and booking timely profit is also highly recommended
.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | September 09, 2021
No meaningful change in data, be stock specific
Nifty spot closed at 17369.25 this week, against a close of 17323.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.35 to 1.27.
The annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 0.50%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 0.58%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 1.75 points against a premium of 5.75 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 27.75 points.
Nifty started the week on a positive note and registered new records above 17400. However, we then saw a consolidation
throughout the week wherein the benchmark resisted in the range of 17400-17450 while buying interest was seen on dips at 17300-
17250. The index ended the week on a strong foot around 17370 but no major change in open interest was seen in indices. FII’s
unwound some of their longs in the index futures and their ‘Long Short Ratio’ is above 63 percent. There was no fresh build up in
indices this week but we believe the previous longs in Nifty are still intact. In the nearby strikes, 17400 call and 17300 put has
highest open interest outstanding. The near term trading range for index is seen at 17200-17500 and hence, traders should prefer
trading with a stock specific approach.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Chg(%)
SBILIFE
10861500
58.45
(5.79)
GUJGASLTD
3856250
33.20
(2.72)
BAJAJ-AUTO
3113500
20.62
(1.54)
APOLLOHOSP
2584000
19.77
(5.86)
NAVINFLUOR
493650
15.05
(3.34)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Chg(%)
CANFINHOME
3828825
123.00
6.56
INDIAMART
277800
81.12
9.27
IDEA
830900000
42.53
15.75
POLYCAB
572700
39.04
7.18
IEX
8885000
30.06
10.94
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Technical and Derivatives Review | September 09, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivativ[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com