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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review | September 03, 2021
RIL propels Nifty beyond 17300, avoid being complacent
Sensex (58130) / Nifty (17324)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
We had a bumper opening on Monday at new record highs citing to cheerful mood across the globe. This head start certainly set up
the tone for the entire week as markets didn’t look back from thereon. Everyday our benchmark index was making new high and in
the process even reached the millstone of 17000. In fact it didn’t stop there as we witnessed a continuation of the upward trajectory
in last couple of sessions; courtesy to stellar comeback from heavyweight RELIANCE who single-handedly propelled Nifty beyond
17300. Eventually, it happened to be yet another spectacular week for our markets as the bulls added another 3.70% to their kitty.
Nifty has been enjoying a strong Bull Run since last 16 17 months and in last few weeks also, it gave some mesmerizing moves.
Although the recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, we can see some extreme levels in benchmark index now. If we take
a broader view, we can see Nifty reaching the 200% ‘Fibonacci Retracement’ of the last year’s massive decline from Jan’20 high to
March’20 low. Also time-wise, Nifty has entered 7th zone as per ‘Fibonacci Time Series’ on the monthly time frame chart. We do not
want to sound pessimistic but since couple of important key ratios are coinciding at current juncture; it will be unfair to overlook
them. To be on the safer side, we advise traders to keep booking profits in the rally and avoid taking aggressive longs for a while. Yes,
momentum traders can still continue with their stock specific trades; but needs to follow strict stop losses and booking timely profit
is advocated.
As far as levels are concerned, 17400 17500 are to be considered immediate hurdles; where we would certainly avoid being
complacent. On the flipside, 17200 17050 are to be seen as key supports for the forthcoming week. The first sign of weakness
would start below 17000 after which the crucial make or break support zone of 16700 16600 would be tested.
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review | September 03, 2021
F&O data looks strong, stay long
Nifty spot closed at 17323.60 this week, against a close of 16705.20 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.40 to 1.35.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.45%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 13.07%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 5.75 points against a discount of 9.10 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 30.20 points.
We began the first week of September series with an upside gap tad above 16750 and as we progressed fresh buying interest was
seen to push the benchmark index towards 16950. This wouldn’t have been possible without the specular move in the banking index
which finally managed to surpass the sturdy wall of 36200-36300 on a closing basis on Monday. Going ahead, the buying got
extended during next four trading sessions to rally beyond 17300. On Friday, the Nifty clocked fresh record highs of 17340.10 and
concluded the week with the handsome gains of 3.70%. Now let’s take a quick glance at the F&O activity. On the net basis, majority
of the positions formed in both the indices during the week were on long side. Stronger hands too participated by adding longs in
equities and stock futures; however, their positions in index futures remained mixed
. On Friday, fresh writing was seen in 17300
put and highest open interest in calls shifted higher to 17500; which is a good indication. Considering the above development,
we expect continuation of ongoing move in the coming week and hence traders are advised using declines to add longs.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Chg(%)
M&M
13694100
20.92
(2.98)
TORNTPOWER
3594000
18.15
(0.42)
ESCORTS
6942650
17.77
(2.23)
INFY
31413000
10.28
(0.79)
TECHM
10173000
8.68
(0.37)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Chg(%)
IDEA
582960000
69.89
19.67
EXIDEIND
34117200
35.12
20.07
NATIONALUM
106624000
29.61
9.07
HDFCAMC
1192000
25.45
4.48
ONGC
58188900
24.93
5.68
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review | September 03, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivativ[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com