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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review | October 01, 2021
Nifty finally snaps its winning streak
Sensex (58766) / Nifty (17532)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Monday’s session started on a positive note owing to favourable global cues. Nifty was about to clock fresh high but a modest profit
booking at higher levels pulled it lower from the kissing distance of the previous high. On the subsequent day, we witnessed some
nervousness in the global markets which had a rub off effect on our markets as well. Nifty came off sharply to test sub-17600 levels
but also saw a sharp recovery towards the fag end as well to reclaim the 17700 mark at the close. This was followed by some
consolidation and again some weakness on the last day of the week to conclude tad below 17500.
With this week’s price action, Nifty has finally snapped its recent winning streak as it ended with nearly couple of percent cut.
Although, this week so far, Nifty came off a bit from its all-time highs, the September month panned out extremely well for the bulls
as they added nearly 3% (month on month) to their kitty. Honestly for the second half of the September month, we maintained a
cautious stance on the market and it moved much more than we had expected. In such kind of strong Bull Run, it may not be a wise
ploy to stay sceptical; but the kind of time-projections and negative divergence in momentum oscillators we are observing, we
would continue with the same. The over stretched market can surprise us any time and hence we reiterate staying light in the
market. We have already witnessed a glimpse of this possibility this week, but structurally nothing has been dented yet.
As far as levels are concerned, the upside in the coming week seems capped and we do not expect the Nifty to go beyond the sturdy
wall of 17800 17950. On the flip side, 17450 17300 are to be seen as key supports. First sign of weakness would be visible only
after breaking this lower range. In addition, the fear index INDIA VIX also spiked up a bit in the first of the week. Hence, we expect
the volatility to remain on the higher side in the coming week as well. We advise traders to stay light and follow strict stop losses for
existing positions. Also, we are observing good stock specific action in the market. One can continue following it but try to book
timely profits as well.
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review | October 01, 2021
FIIs ‘Long Short Ratio’ tanked to 57%
Nifty spot closed at 17532.05this week, against a close of 17853.20 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.27 to 0.98.
The annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 0.14%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 17.31%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a discount of 1.85 points against a premium of 26 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 33.30 points.
After strong recovery seen in the week gone by, we began Monday’s session on a strong note almost towards 17950 mark but in
absence of follow-up buying interest we saw decent selling pressure to drag index below the recent support zone of 17800. This was
just a beginning as the selling got aggravated on Tuesday to push index below 17600 first after some attempt of recovery on
Wednesday we once again saw another round of selling to almost touch 17450 on Friday. Eventually, we concluded the week with a
cut of 1.80%. Being an expiry week, we saw decent open interest reduction. Nifty and BankNifty rollovers stood at 74.98% and
83.49% respectively. Stronger hands preferred lightening up their longs and carrying bearish bets in October series, this certainly
doesn’t bode well for Bulls. Now as a result, their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ plunged from 65% to 57%. The development seen
in derivatives segment hints limited upside going forward and hence we would advocate traders exiting longs and continue with
stock specific trades for a time being.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
HDFCAMC 3264600 117.38 2942.25 (8.18)
TECHM 13359000 24.85 1373.40 (9.29)
METROPOLIS 502000 21.61 2741.10 (9.84)
MPHASIS 2211300 20.19 3042.65 (9.21)
OFSS 722750 18.92 4524.90 (3.81)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
IPCALAB 514125 45.17 2422.55 1.00
CANFINHOME 4788225 35.29 674.85 2.67
SUNPHARMA 33479600 8.39 827.75 7.40
COALINDIA 64180200 7.45 189.65 14.25
MUTHOOTFIN 3827250 7.09 1537.25 2.20
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review | October 01, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelone.in