October
3
1
, 2023
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)
In contrast to the benchmark index, the banking index opened the
week with a modestly negative stance. Fresh selling pressure was
evident right from the beginning, testing 42400 in the initial thirty
minutes of trade. Nevertheless, the index quickly stabilized,
demonstrating a robust recovery that not only fully recouped the
initial losses but also surpassed the psychological threshold of
43000. With a final surge towards the end of the trading session, the
banking index settled the second consecutive session in positive
territory, achieving gains of six-tenth of a percent to Friday’s close.
The initial selling observed was indeed alarming as the index even
tested Friday's low of 42482.75. Fortunately, the Bulls made a strong
comeback and capitalized on these intraday dips. However, it is vital
to keep a close tab on a follow-up move beyond the hurdles at 43100
and 43400 in the upcoming trading sessions. It's worth noting that only
a sustainable move beyond 44000 would confirm the completion of
the corrective phase.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 42500 Resistance 1 – 43100
Support 2 – 42300 Resistance 2 – 43400
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
4113
) / Nifty (
1
9
141
)
In the morning, the Asian bourses and Gift Nifty experienced a shaky
beginning, but despite these signs of weakness, the benchmark index
had a stable start. However, as the day progressed, there was a
significant drop in prices during the initial hour. Later in the day, there
was a strong recovery, and Nifty maintained a positive trend for the
most part of the session, closing at 19141 with half-percent gain.
Following the turmoil seen during the fag end of October contract, the
November series has started on a strong note, witnessing decent price
increases over the last two sessions. Nevertheless, caution is advised as
we believe that uncertainties persist. It's important not to become too
complacent with long positions, as strong overhead resistance is seen
at higher levels at regular intervals. Last week, prices experienced a
significant breakdown, falling below the crucial 19200 level, which
triggered a substantial sell-off. Now, prices are nearing the same key
area, ranging from 19200 to 19250, which has transitioned into a
formidable resistance zone. The current rebound is attributed to
oversold conditions, and the extent to which prices may rise remains
uncertain. Traders are advised to adopt a cautious, step-by-step
approach and closely monitor how prices react to this resistance in the
upcoming sessions. Furthermore, the 89EMA coinciding with
50% retracement level of the recent fall around 19350 is also a key
resistance level to watch. On the downside, there was buying during
intraday dip, and a higher bottom formation on the hourly chart around
18940 now acts as immediate support, before which 19000 is also a
significant support level.
Going ahead, we sense, the market may consolidate within a range
in the near term, and traders should keep a close eye on these levels
when planning their trades. We witnessed trading opportunities in
individual stocks on both sides of the trend, traders should focus on
same, but caution is advised, and aggressive overnight positions
should be avoided due to global uncertainties looming in the
background.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19000 Resistance 1 – 19250
Support 2 – 18950 Resistance 2 – 19350
Until such confirmation is achieved, we recommend avoiding
aggressive bets in the index and adhering to a one step at a time
approach. As for support levels, consider 42500 to 42300 as
immediate support zones.
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View
The Indian Equity started the Nov month series on a
positive note amidst global stability. The benchmark
index Nifty50 surged nearly 0.50 percent at the start
of the week and settled near 19150.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1762 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 298 cr in Index futures with an increase in
open interest, indicating short addition.
On the derivatives front, net longs were seen in the
key indices at the start of the week. On the options
front, a decent piling of OI is seen at 19100-19000
put strikes, suggesting primary support for Nifty.
While on the higher end, some unwinding was seen
in 19200 CE, indicating call writers shifting positions.
However, FIIs remained net sellers in equities and
the index futures segments; Long Short Ratio
remains unchanged at 12%. Considering the recent
data, our market seems to consolidate in the near
period; hence, it is advisable to stay very selective
among stock preferences and avoid aggressive bets
on either side for the time being.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.17%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
6.14% as the market closed at 19140.90.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
80 points against a premium of 84.10 points in the last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 185.15 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 10.91 to 11.49. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 0.96
to 1.10.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are PETRONET, M&MFIN, SBICARD,
INDIAMART and COROMANDEL.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IGL 38.31
MGL 37.27
HAVELLS 30.22
ITC 23.52
MPHASIS 37.47
Nifty Vs OI
18200
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
10-12 10-16 10-18 10-23 10-26 10-28
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SBICARD 11277600 32.24 750.35 -6.52
PETRONET 29157000 32.11 201.70 -8.56
COROMANDEL 1500100 32.04 1040.80 -4.02
AUBANK 14176000 22.43 665.95 -4.39
M&MFIN 40118000 20.60 245.50 -11.98
INDIAMART 737400 14.81 2634.35 -6.42
UPL 35176700 12.05 538.65 -3.67
DLF 35253900 10.56 554.45 3.64
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
DIXON 17600 -12.00 5104.10 -5.15
MGL 2498400 -9.29 1017.15 3.11
CIPLA 9793550 -8.44 1193.45 1.39
INDHOTEL 24580000 -6.03 382.10 1.95
TATACOMM 7008000 -4.49 1647.70 2.09
SRF 3749625 -4.31 2181.45 0.20
PAGEIND 146820 -4.11 37555.80 0.08
ZYDUSLIFE 6731100 -3.53 580.25 0.91
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.10 0.88
BANKNIFTY 1.18 0.78
RELIANCE 0.77 0.42
ICICIBANK 0.70 0.49
INFY 0.57 0.40
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
140
.
90
FII Statistics for
October
30
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3525.68 3823.49 (297.81) 209752 17066.25 3.51
INDEX
OPTIONS
1285606.07 1316229.32 (30623.25) 4395740 357165.29 19.06
STOCK
FUTURES
13599.33 15257.38 (1658.05) 2504368 170636.60 0.34
STOCK
OPTIONS
16270.23 16065.46 204.77
120421 8320.49 22.66
Total
1319001.31
1351375.65
(32374.34) 7230281
553188.63
11.43
Turnover on
October
30
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
338993 26080.71
21.95
Index Options
377466766
58371.16
37.27
Stock Futures
910907 62226.70
-0.89
Stock Options
3498924 4126.12 -8.83
Total
34,98,924 4126.12 14.92
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19100
309.15 60.30
39.70
19160.30
Sell
19200
248.85
Buy
19100 309.15 113.10
86.90
19213.10
Sell
19300 196.05
Buy
19200
248.85 52.80 47.20 19252.80
Sell
19300 196.05
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19300 268.65
42.20
57.80
19257.80
Sell 19200 226.45
Buy 19300 268.65
82.45
117.55
19217.55
Sell
19100 186.20
Buy
19200 226.45
40.25 59.75 19159.75
Sell 19100 186.20
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,230 2,264 2,285 2,319 2,340
ADANIPORTS 772 778 786 793 801
APOLLOHOSP 4,746 4,794 4,831 4,879 4,916
ASIANPAINT 2,913 2,940 2,966 2,993 3,019
AXISBANK 967 978 990 1,002 1,014
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,204 5,257 5,327 5,379 5,450
BAJFINANCE 7,286 7,395 7,461 7,569 7,635
BAJAJFINSV 1,510 1,536 1,553 1,579 1,597
BPCL 333 340 344 352 356
BHARTIARTL 901 914 923 935 944
BRITANNIA 4,403 4,432 4,470 4,500 4,538
CIPLA 1,160 1,177 1,194 1,211 1,229
COALINDIA 310 312 314 316 318
DIVISLAB 3,349 3,376 3,412 3,439 3,474
DRREDDY 5,127 5,236 5,315 5,424 5,503
EICHERMOT 3,283 3,321 3,373 3,410 3,463
GRASIM 1,809 1,844 1,863 1,898 1,917
HCLTECH 1,246 1,256 1,265 1,274 1,284
HDFCBANK 1,451 1,468 1,479 1,496 1,507
HDFCLIFE 592 600 609 617 626
HEROMOTOCO 3,024 3,067 3,098 3,141 3,172
HINDALCO 450 453 457 461 465
HINDUNILVR 2,448 2,464 2,478 2,493 2,507
ICICIBANK 902 913 920 931 938
INDUSINDBK 1,415 1,435 1,448 1,468 1,481
INFY 1,356 1,367 1,374 1,384 1,391
ITC 423 427 432 436 441
JSW STEEL 722 728 732 739 743
KOTAKBANK 1,676 1,697 1,709 1,729 1,741
LT 2,829 2,878 2,905 2,954 2,981
LTIMINDTREE 5,042 5,096 5,137 5,190 5,231
M&M 1,440 1,469 1,492 1,521 1,544
MARUTI 9,993 10,195 10,448 10,650 10,903
NESTLEIND 23,711 23,941 24,096 24,326 24,481
NTPC 227 231 235 238 242
ONGC 183 186 188 190 192
POWERGRID 196 198 200 203 205
RELIANCE 2,247 2,280 2,302 2,335 2,358
SBILIFE 1,295 1,311 1,321 1,336 1,346
SBIN 553 559 563 569 573
SUNPHARMA 1,097 1,106 1,113 1,122 1,129
TCS 3,316 3,347 3,365 3,396 3,414
TATACONSUM
874 884 890 900 906
TATAMOTORS 609 619 631 641 653
TATASTEEL 117 118 120 121 122
TECHM 1,104 1,115 1,127 1,139 1,151
TITAN 3,058 3,087 3,104 3,134 3,151
ULTRACEMCO 8,120 8,261 8,338 8,479 8,557
UPL 513 526 545 557 576
WIPRO 378 380 382 384 386
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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