September
2
9
, 2023
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8
4
4
301
)
The monthly expiry day began on a positive note, but these gains
faded as the day progressed. In the morning trade, the banking index
briefly reclaimed the 44750 level, but sharp selling pressure later
dragged the index lower to test the 44250 mark. Due to some
extended profit booking in the latter half of the series, most of the
early month gains just disappeared, ultimately concluding the series
with a modest 0.7% gain MOM.
As mentioned in our previous commentary, we witnessed a surge in
volatility, but the extent of the sell-off was clearly unexpected.
Nevertheless, the damage in the banking index was not as severe as it
is in the benchmark index, but selling pressure observed during any
minor pullback attempts doesn’t bode well for Bulls. This has
undeniably dented the overall market sentiment. We eagerly await
the commencement of the October series to see how things pan out
after yesterday's setback. In terms of key levels, the previous swing
low in the range of 44000-43800 is now to be seen as a critical zone.
On the other hand, 44700-44800 should now serve as an immediate
hurdle.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 44000 Resistance 1 – 44700
Support 2 – 43800 Resistance 2 – 44800
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
5508
) / Nifty (
19
524
)
Following a robust finish on Wednesday, the start of the monthly expiry
session displayed positivity. Nonetheless, there was a lack of sustained
buying interest, causing prices to gradually decline and erase the
morning gains. As the monthly expiry progressed, the breach of key
intra-day levels led to increased selling pressure, ultimately resulting in
prices closing with a substantial drop of around a percent, ending a tad
above the 19500 mark.
Bears continue to exert control as the market remains hesitant at
higher levels. Without a significant rebound from robust support levels,
these levels are easily breached. Notably, Nifty has now broken below
the support at 19600, a confluence zone formed by the 50-day SMA
and the 61.8 percent retracement levels of the recent rally. This zone
had previously acted as support in recent sessions. Whether these
critical support levels have genuinely been broken or if this is merely a
consequence of the expiry effect remains to be seen. Consequently, the
coming session, the final session of September, holds great importance.
If the weakness persists, one should prepare for further declines, with
the levels around 19300, marked by the 89-day EMA, and the origin
point of the recent rally at 19200, potentially coming into play. It's
worth noting that adding short positions is still not advisable at this
point as hourly indicators are currently in the oversold zone, with a
visible two-point positive divergence, suggesting the possibility of
intermittent strong rebounds in the market.
On the other hand, immediate resistance levels are expected at
various points, but the range of 19750 to 19850 holds particular
significance, as only a breakthrough beyond it could be considered
as the first sign of relief for the bulls after the recent market
turmoil. Traders should closely monitor global developments, as any
positive development on that front could provide much-needed
support to the bulls during this challenging period. Additionally, it's
advisable to keep overnight positions light, especially with an
extended weekend ahead.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19450 Resistance 1 – 19700
Support 2 – 19300 Resistance 2 – 19780
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View
The Indian equity market witnessed a strong sell-off
on the expiry session, wherein the benchmark index
Nifty50 skids towards the 19500 zone, eroding nearly
a percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 3364 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 3893 cr in Index futures with a fall in open
interest, suggesting long unwinding.
On the derivatives front, we witnessed long
unwinding in key indices on the expiry session. On
the options front, the highest piling of OI is seen at
19500 put strike, followed by 19400 PE. On the other
side, the highest OI concentration stands at 19700
call strike, indicating the intermediate resistance.
Stronger hands continued their sell-off in the cash
segment, denting the overall sentiments.
Considering the mentioned data and recent price
action, the market seems a bit oversold, but it is
advisable to avoid aggressive bets and stay abreast
with global developments.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
14.18% and Bank Nifty futures open interest has
decreased by 6.80% as the market closed at 19523.55.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of
113.55 points against 112.45 points in the last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
237.90 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 11.59 to 12.82. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.07
to 0.98.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are BERGEPAINT, MCX, ASIANPAINT,
MARICO and COLPAL.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BERGEPAINT 30.50
CANBK 42.28
ZYDUSLIFE 28.60
GRANULES 38.58
DRREDDY 24.94
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
9-12 9-14 9-18 9-21 9-26 9-28
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ASIANPAINT 6100000 14.85 3170.35 -4.23
KOTAKBANK 32113200 13.50 1733.20 -2.12
BHEL 107215500 11.60 126.65 -0.08
TECHM 12963000 8.44 1229.50 -4.59
ICICIBANK 91562100 8.07 942.60 -0.11
HINDCOPPER 33093200 7.54 156.30 -1.72
INDUSINDBK 23313000 5.48 1413.00 -1.66
M&M 15013600 3.93 1556.05 -2.20
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ONGC 17600 -39.01 187.45 0.51
DELTACORP 10721200 -36.40 140.75 0.11
INDIACEM 15135100 -29.82 226.65 -1.61
COALINDIA 77414400 -28.74 290.20 -0.03
COFORGE 1228500 -27.98 5123.45 -1.92
HCLTECH 8810900 -25.53 1241.95 -1.58
GRANULES 9994000 -24.81 341.85 -2.48
IPCALAB 1717300 -23.44 923.85 -0.31
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.98 0.88
BANKNIFTY 0.76 0.87
RELIANCE 0.71 0.53
ICICIBANK 0.52 0.46
INFY 0.62 0.56
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19
523
.
55
FII Statistics for
September
2
8
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
6643.16 10536.47 (3893.31) 147103 11909.00
(28.08)
INDEX
OPTIONS
2709127.33 2711162.04 (2034.71) 2494082 202487.52
(50.47)
STOCK
FUTURES
37131.41 44872.07 (7740.66) 2356289 184899.01 (1.26)
STOCK
OPTIONS
4554.38 4459.35 95.03
33933 2744.73
(87.85)
Total
2757456.28
2771029.93
(13573.65) 5031407
402040.26
(36.36)
Turnover on
September
2
8
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
656997 54143.62
47.91
Index Options
703455230
67005.89
10.74
Stock Futures
2805628 224828.35
25.56
Stock Options
3423628 4360.81 15.36
Total
34,23,628
4360.81 25.14
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19400 411.05
66.35
33.65
19466.35
Sell
19500 344.70
Buy
19400 411.05
128.45
71.55
19528.45
Sell
19600 282.60
Buy
19500 344.70
62.10 37.90 19562.10
Sell
19600 282.60
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19600 242.45
35.45
64.55
19564.55
Sell 19500 207.00
Buy 19600 242.45
70.25
129.75
19529.75
Sell
19400 172.20
Buy
19500 207.00
34.80 65.20 19465.20
Sell 19400 172.20
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,413 2,444 2,478 2,509 2,542
ADANIPORTS 806 814 828 837 850
APOLLOHOSP 4,903 4,962 5,054 5,112 5,204
ASIANPAINT 3,071 3,121 3,205 3,255 3,339
AXISBANK 1,019 1,025 1,031 1,038 1,044
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,890 4,948 5,039 5,097 5,187
BAJFINANCE 7,651 7,695 7,762 7,806 7,873
BAJAJFINSV 1,510 1,525 1,550 1,565 1,590
BPCL 337 341 345 349 353
BHARTIARTL 912 919 925 932 939
BRITANNIA 4,425 4,475 4,555 4,604 4,684
CIPLA 1,143 1,154 1,169 1,180 1,195
COALINDIA 286 288 291 293 296
DIVISLAB 3,556 3,611 3,705 3,760 3,854
DRREDDY 5,353 5,391 5,449 5,487 5,546
EICHERMOT 3,380 3,410 3,455 3,485 3,530
GRASIM 1,872 1,889 1,914 1,931 1,955
HCLTECH 1,221 1,232 1,249 1,259 1,276
HDFCBANK 1,507 1,516 1,527 1,535 1,546
HDFCLIFE 622 628 640 646 657
HEROMOTOCO 2,925 2,947 2,983 3,005 3,041
HINDALCO 455 461 470 476 485
HINDUNILVR 2,424 2,442 2,472 2,490 2,519
ICICIBANK 929 936 942 948 954
INDUSINDBK 1,387 1,400 1,423 1,436 1,459
INFY 1,411 1,425 1,449 1,463 1,487
ITC 433 437 443 447 454
JSW STEEL 750 759 773 782 796
KOTAKBANK 1,702 1,718 1,745 1,760 1,788
LT 2,941 2,975 3,013 3,048 3,085
LTIMINDTREE 5,071 5,168 5,315 5,412 5,559
M&M 1,513 1,534 1,566 1,587 1,619
MARUTI 10,428 10,497 10,601 10,670 10,774
NESTLEIND 22,171 22,355 22,631 22,815 23,092
NTPC 232 235 238 240 244
ONGC 185 186 188 189 191
POWERGRID 194 198 201 204 208
RELIANCE 2,289 2,312 2,347 2,370 2,405
SBILIFE 1,270 1,280 1,294 1,304 1,318
SBIN 585 587 591 594 598
SUNPHARMA 1,115 1,123 1,138 1,147 1,161
TCS 3,480 3,508 3,556 3,584 3,631
TATACONSUM
855 866 881 892 907
TATAMOTORS 605 610 617 621 628
TATASTEEL 124 126 127 129 130
TECHM 1,190 1,210 1,242 1,262 1,294
TITAN 3,091 3,124 3,175 3,208 3,258
ULTRACEMCO 8,014 8,084 8,204 8,274 8,394
UPL 592 599 609 615 625
WIPRO 396 401 409 413 421
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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