NOV 28, 2022
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xOOOOOOOO
Nifty Bank Outlook (42984)
The Bank Nifty index has continued its unprecedented move and
has settled at its lifetime high levels. The spectacular action in the
PSU banks has levitated the overall sentiments and made Bank
Nifty march into uncharted territory on the technical chart. The
index concluded the week with gains of nearly 1.30 percent and
settled at new highs at 42984 levels.
On the technical aspect, the stellar bull run in the banking index
continued for the eighth consecutive week and was the charioteer
to uplift the market. The ongoing price action construes a robust
setup for the index and is highly anticipated to continue the same
in a comparable period. At present, the unfilled gap of 42550-
42500 is likely to cushion any intra-week blip, while the bullish gap
present around the 42000 mark is likely to act as the sheet anchor.
On the flip side, the fresh breakout has opened the potential for
the index to march toward the 43500-44000 mark in the coming
period. The overall structure is buoyant, where any minor
correction could be seen as an opportunity to add fresh longs in
the index.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 42550 Resistance 1 – 43500
Support 2 – 42500 Resistance 2 – 44000
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
Sensex (62294) / Nifty (18513)
We saw bulls unleashing on Thursday to surpass 18450 with some
authority however the following session did not have any traction
in the index. Eventually, Nifty managed to close above 18500 mark
to clock highest ever weekly close. On a weekly basis, Nifty added
more than a percent to the bulls’ kitty.
We have been quite vocal in all turbulent moves during this year
and maintained a strong optimistic bias around key support zones.
So undoubtedly when the bulls are in cruise control now, we
continue to remain sanguine on the near-term outlook. Banking
index and SENSEX have already entered an uncharted territory and
it’s a matter of time, we would see Nifty following the same
footsteps. As far as levels are concerned, 18600 and 18750 are the
next levels to watch out for, above which the path towards next
milestone of 19000 unfolds. The ‘Buy on decline’ strategy continues
to pay rich dividend to market participants and hence, there is no
harm on continuing the same. The immediate support zone is now
visible in the vicinity of 18400 18300; whereas the actual base now
shifts higher towards 18100. As long as Nifty manages to defend this
territory, there is no reason to worry for.
Once the benchmark index Nifty clocks fresh record highs, apart
from heavyweights, one should now keep a close eye on the
broader end of the spectrum, which has been quiet for some time
now. The way NIFTY MIDCAP 50 index is placed, we are likely to
see some flamboyant moves in mid and small cap baskets.
Traders are advised to continue with an optimistic approach and
now, with other sectors chipping in, we expect a good broad-
based buying in this week.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 18400 Resistance 1 – 18600
Support 2 – 18300 Resistance 2 18750
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The November expiry week was indeed a volatile,
initially some profit booking was observed to drag
index below 18200. However, 18100 odd zone acted as
a strong demand zone, and a gradual upmove was
seen to reclaim 18500 on the expiry day. We concluded
the week at the highest point for this financial year.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 369 crores. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they sold worth Rs. 1657 crores with rise in
open interest, indicating addition of short positions.
During the series, we observed good amount of long
addition in both the key indices and majority of them
have been rolled over too. Rollover in Nifty and
BankNifty stood at 82% and 88% respectively, which
is clearly above the three-month average figures.
Stronger hands started November series with the
index futures ‘Long short Ratio’ of 59% and now it
has jumped up to 77% as they preferred carrying
forward bullish bets formed during the series.
However, they added few shorts on Friday resulting
LSR declining to 71%. The above data remains
positive and hence we maintain our optimistic
stance on market and would advise using intraday
declines to add bullish bets in system.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by
2.41%. and Bank Nifty futures open interest has
decreased by 6.24% as the market closed at 18512.75.
The Nifty December future closed with a premium of
133.35 point against a premium of 129.60 point in the
last trading session. The January series closed at a
premium of 239.15 point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 13.49 to 13.33. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.38 to 1.18.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are IDEA, ICICIPRULI, AMBUJACEM, IEX
and HINDCOPPER.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
PFC 34.36
BHEL 56.19
RECLTD 34.03
IBULHSGFIN 70.75
L&TFH 49.40
Nifty Vs OI
17600
17800
18000
18200
18400
18600
18800
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
11/7 11/9 11/14 11/16 11/18 11/23 11/25
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GUJGASLTD 4207500 29.76 492.05 -0.71
BHEL 130515000 27.92 81.95 9.60
ICICIPRULI 16329000 22.92 452.10 -2.18
ESCORTS 1201750 20.62 2288.35 4.65
WHIRLPOOL 784000 17.77 1511.50 1.68
RBLBANK 50215000 15.49 150.05 5.90
L&TFH 53187040 14.33 86.90 5.47
SRTRANSFIN 4125600 13.63 1280.15 -2.08
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 1406375 -16.95 4789.45 -0.46
HDFCLIFE 14989700 -8.59 586.60 2.42
ZYDUSLIFE 9693000 -6.99 402.10 2.39
PERSISTENT 546575 -5.19 3970.80 1.92
CUB 7060000 -4.85 186.55 1.51
ICICIBANK 78153125 -4.68 930.30 -0.80
IGL 10139250 -4.06 430.60 3.25
HEROMOTOCO 2573700 -3.98 2708.15 1.73
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.18 0.89
BANKNIFTY 0.86 0.92
RELIANCE 0.58 0.37
ICICIBANK 0.61 0.62
INFY 0.77 0.42
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Technical & Derivatives Report
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Dec Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
8
512.75
FII Statistics for
November
2
5
, 2022
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2492.74 4150.22 (1657.48) 176073 17249.73 6.61
INDEX
OPTIONS
791010.67 784385.15 6625.52
1738790 168336.59 40.78
STOCK
FUTURES
10699.72 10984.57 (284.85) 1981115 137832.92 0.02
STOCK
OPTIONS
7701.16 7558.97 142.19
67130 4923.97 171.40
Total 811904.29
807078.91
4825.38
3963108
328343.21
16.37
Turnover on
November
2
5
, 2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index
Futures
260918 26163.86 -48.02
Index
Options
92018057 35078.93 -2.40
Stock
Futures
770726 54725.54 -63.32
Stock
Options
2714055 4238.60 38.51
Total
2,714,055 4238.60 -49.61
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
18500 341.00
61.95
38.05
18561.95
Sell
18600 279.05
Buy
18500 341.00
118.00
82.00
18618.00
Sell
18700 223.00
Buy
18600 279.05
56.05 43.95 18656.05
Sell 18700 223.00
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 18500 195.15
30.65
69.35
18469.35
Sell
18400 164.50
Buy 18500 195.15
61.65
138.35
18438.35
Sell 18300 133.50
Buy
18400 164.50
31.00 69.00 18369.00
Sell 18300 133.50
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1 R2
ADANIENT 3,794 3,848
3,899
3,952
4,003
ADANIPORTS
869
874
878
883
886
APOLLOHOSP 4,675 4,732
4,809
4,866
4,942
ASIANPAINT 3,057 3,082
3,101
3,127
3,146
AXISBANK
876
882
887
893
898
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,580 3,610
3,631
3,662
3,683
BAJFINANCE
6,631
6,689
6,734
6,792
6,837
BAJAJFINSV 1,613 1,623
1,635
1,646
1,658
BPCL
313
318
322
328
332
BHARTIARTL 831 839
849
857
868
BRITANNIA 4,118 4,151
4,181
4,214
4,245
CIPLA
1,068
1,087
1,097
1,115
1,125
COALINDIA
225
228
231
234
237
DIVISLAB
3,251
3,297
3,322
3,368
3,393
DRREDDY 4,368 4,393
4,414
4,439
4,460
EICHERMOT
3,323
3,369
3,395
3,441
3,468
GRASIM
1,694
1,714
1,727
1,747
1,760
HCLTECH
1,112
1,120
1,129 1,137
1,146
HDFCBANK
1,604
1,611
1,621 1,628
1,639
HDFCLIFE
568
577
584
593
600
HDFC
2,647
2,664
2,681
2,698
2,715
HEROMOTOCO 2,643 2,676
2,696
2,729
2,749
HINDALCO 431 436
439
444
446
HINDUNILVR 2,500 2,519
2,537
2,556 2,574
ICICIBANK 918 924
934
940
949
INDUSINDBK 1,168 1,178
1,186
1,195
1,203
INFY 1,601 1,618
1,631 1,649
1,661
ITC
336
338
340
342
344
JSW STEEL
716
721
725
730
733
KOTAKBANK
1,903
1,916
1,932
1,945
1,961
LT 2,035 2,049
2,072
2,086
2,110
M&M
1,236
1,249
1,258
1,270
1,280
MARUTI 8,883 8,951
9,016
9,084
9,148
NESTLEIND 19,214 19,372
19,598
19,756
19,982
NTPC
167
168
170
171
173
ONGC
136
138
140 142 143
POWERGRID
215
218
219
222
224
RELIANCE 2,565 2,592
2,608 2,634
2,651
SBILIFE 1,214 1,225
1,240
1,250
1,266
SBIN
602
605
609
612
617
SUNPHARMA
1,022
1,028
1,033
1,039
1,044
TCS 3,325 3,357
3,380 3,413 3,436
TATACONSUM
770 780
790
799
809
TATAMOTORS
420
426
431 438
442
TATASTEEL 105 105
106
107
107
TECHM 1,051 1,066
1,074
1,089
1,097
TITAN
2,566
2,581
2,600 2,615 2,634
ULTRACEMCO
6,796
6,835
6,889 6,928 6,982
UPL 766 772
776
782
787
WIPRO
393
398
401 406 410
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*
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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