OCT 25, 2022
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Technical & Derivatives Report
xOOOOOOOO
Nifty Bank Outlook (40784)
The banking space has seen strong traction throughout the week,
especially on Friday; courtesy to gigantic leap in Axis bank post its
stellar quarterly numbers. In this course of action, BANKNIFTY has
outperformed the benchmark index and procured 3.76 percent of
gains on a weekly basis. The weekly closure above 40600 construes
a positive development ahead of the truncated Diwali week.
On the technical aspect, the index is firmly placed above all the
major exponential moving averages on the daily chart, signifying
inherent bullishness. Also, on the weekly time frame, the index has
closed at the highest level ever, adding to a buoyant sentiment. As
far as levels are concerned, 40000 – 39800 is expected to act as the
sacrosanct support zone for the index. On the flip side, the index is
all set to re-claim the lifetime high zone in the comparable period.
We remain to have a sanguine view in the banking space, where
any dip towards the mentioned support could be utilized to add
long bets.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 40600 Resistance 1 – 41500
Support 2 – 40350 Resistance 2 – 41670
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Chart
Sensex (59307) / Nifty (17576)
Last week, our markets started on a sluggish note as global markets
once again looked a bit tentative over the previous weekend.
However, market participants at our end pounced on to this
opportunity as we witnessed a V-shaped recovery to reclaim the
17300 mark. Adding to this, the sentiments on global front
improved drastically as the week progressed which provided the
much-needed impetus for our domestic markets. As a result, we
kept marching higher in latter half to eventually conclude the pre-
Diwali week convincingly above 17500 by adding over a couple of
percent gains to the bulls’ kitty.
Most of our recent hope or anticipation has turned into a reality and
in the process, rock solid support zone around 17000 – 16800 has
certainly proved its significance. The bulls were determined to
defend this last week and with slight improvement in global peers,
fueled the rally in our market to regain some strength. From a
technical standpoint, Nifty is now placed in a safer territory and
from hereon, the immediate support is visible in the vicinity of
17400 – 17350. Since the undertone is strongly bullish, one should
continue with an optimistic bias and should continue using
intermediate declines to add bullish bets. On the higher side, Nifty
has reached to our immediate targets of 17500 – 17600; but now,
we can safely extend these projections towards 17800 and even
retesting of 18000 cannot be ruled out. For this to happen, we do
not require flamboyant moves from global bourses, rather their
stability is the need of the hour and hence, no negative news would
be considered as good news only.
Sectorally, the banking outshined by a fair margin last week,
especially on Friday after the stellar Quarterly numbers from
private banking giant, Axis Bank. This heavyweight space is likely
to be the major charioteer and once other heavyweight too starts
chipping in, markets are good to go towards the 18000 mark. As
far as the broader market is concerned, it remained quite last
week; but if we see global uncertainty completely disappearing,
the midcaps will have a strong comeback soon.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17540 Resistance 1 – 17810
Support 2 – 17500 Resistance 2 – 17880
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Finally, after last three weeks we manged to breach
the resistance zone around 17500 on the closing basis.
We had a sluggish start for the week, but strong buying
emerged on Monday to almost recoup all the losses
seen on last Friday. Next day, we had a bumped up
start and we managed to reclaim 17500 and this was
followed by rough move towards 17650.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 439 crores. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they bought worth Rs. 494 crores with a rise
in open interest; indicating formation of long positions
on Friday’s session.
In F&O space, fresh long formations are seen in Nifty
and Bank Nifty. Post some selling in initial three days,
stronger hands turned net buyers in the cash segment.
In the Index futures, they added bullish bets in index as
well as stock futures segment. Hence the FIIs ‘Long
Short Ratio’ has improved from 23% to 30%. We
observed fresh writing in 17500 and 17600 put strikes.
On the other side, 17600-18200 call options added huge
positions which could be on short side. At current
juncture, 17300-17400 is a strong demand zone for the
benchmark index and until we manage to sustain
above same the biasness remains positive.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by
1.52%. and Bank Nifty futures open interest has
increased by 5.75% as the market closed at 17576.30.
The Nifty October future closed with a discount of
11.85 point against a discount of 23.25 point in the last
trading session. The November series closed at a
premium of 17.50 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 17.23 to 17.42. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.22 to 1.03.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are IDEA, BALRAMCHIN, ASTRAL, BPCL
and MFSL.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
AXISBANK 40.17
LAURUSLABS 44.41
BERGEPAINT 32.56
MPHASIS 43.54
HAVELLS 37.02
Nifty Vs OI
16400
16600
16800
17000
17200
17400
17600
17800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
10/3 10/6 10/10 10/12 10/14 10/18 10/20
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BERGEPAINT 9005700 22.41 585.35 -5.34
AXISBANK 59740800 16.77 900.40 8.25
LAURUSLABS 7235100 16.68 486.30 -7.15
BAJFINANCE 5434500 13.48 7192.70 -3.22
METROPOLIS 732900 11.55 1588.75 2.08
SRTRANSFIN 4600800 11.00 1197.70 -2.10
SBICARD 5846400 10.18 865.45 -2.45
MFSL 2763150 9.87 698.50 -1.87
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GUJGASLTD 6141250 -25.95 501.80 3.99
NMDC 40431150 -20.92 130.35 -1.54
COFORGE 851700 -20.84 3862.15 2.68
HDFCAMC 2064000 -15.82 2069.55 2.12
LALPATHLAB 1100250 -13.87 2561.90 2.81
POLYCAB 975900 -13.39 2698.10 1.83
CROMPTON 5619000 -13.39 373.55 -2.16
ICICIPRULI 7428000 -12.00 510.00 -1.80
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.03 0.95
BANKNIFTY 1.15 0.86
RELIANCE 0.52 0.47
ICICIBANK 0.52 0.29
INFY 0.49 0.42
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Technical & Derivatives Report
OCT 25, 2022
*Report as per Friday 21
st
October closing
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
17
576.
30
FII Statistics for
October
2
1
, 2022
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
6928.58 6434.82 493.76
196110 17962.83 9.14
INDEX
OPTIONS
712737.93 702844.66 9893.27
1865339 169867.75 31.59
STOCK
FUTURES
60316.62 59798.19 518.43
2183291 150484.95 0.58
STOCK
OPTIONS
16728.03 16444.79 283.24
166332 12294.16 3.19
Total 796711.16
785522.46
11188.70
4411072
350609.69
12.27
Turnover on
October
2
1
, 2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
473238 44840.91 17.29
Index Options
91686896 42497.38 -15.89
Stock
Futures
2362396 169777.90 36.46
Stock Options
4691086 3999.76 37.45
Total
4,691,086 3999.76 20.84
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17700 52.15
25.75
74.25
17725.75
Sell
17800 26.40
Buy
17700 52.15
40.00
160.00
17740.00
Sell
17900 12.15
Buy
17800 26.40
14.25 85.75 17814.25
Sell 17900 12.15
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 17700 188.25
58.50
41.50
17641.50
Sell
17600 129.75
Buy 17700 188.25
102.15
97.85
17597.85
Sell 17500 86.10
Buy
17600 129.75
43.65 56.35 17556.35
Sell 17500 86.10
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
16900 17000 17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
OCT 25, 2022
`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1 R2
ADANIENT
3,232
3,272
3,327
3,367
3,422
ADANIPORTS
784
793
808
817
833
APOLLOHOSP 4,273 4,331
4,381
4,438
4,488
ASIANPAINT
3,018
3,055
3,110
3,147 3,202
AXISBANK
837
869
887
919
938
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,598 3,633
3,677
3,712
3,756
BAJFINANCE 6,942 7,067
7,279
7,404
7,616
BAJAJFINSV
1,635
1,660
1,700
1,725
1,765
BPCL
295
297
299
300
302
BHARTIARTL
784
791
797
804 810
BRITANNIA
3,737
3,765
3,790
3,818
3,843
CIPLA 1,123 1,129
1,138
1,144
1,154
COALINDIA 236 237
239
241
243
DIVISLAB 3,495 3,533
3,601
3,639
3,707
DRREDDY 4,262 4,297
4,343
4,377
4,423
EICHERMOT 3,511 3,570
3,627
3,687
3,744
GRASIM 1,641 1,659
1,687
1,705
1,733
HCLTECH
1,005
1,016
1,023
1,034
1,041
HDFCBANK
1,420
1,429
1,443
1,453
1,467
HDFCLIFE 531 536
542
548
554
HDFC 2,320 2,335
2,357
2,372
2,394
HEROMOTOCO
2,536
2,553
2,565 2,582 2,594
HINDALCO 381 387
393
399
404
HINDUNILVR
2,581
2,618
2,642
2,678
2,703
ICICIBANK
877
892
901
916
925
INDUSINDBK 1,120 1,131
1,150
1,161
1,180
INFY
1,485
1,493
1,499
1,507
1,514
ITC
339
342
348
351
356
JSW STEEL
609
616
623
630
637
KOTAKBANK
1,839
1,871
1,898
1,930
1,957
LT
1,832
1,854
1,890
1,912
1,948
M&M
1,232
1,244
1,257
1,269
1,281
MARUTI 8,560 8,632
8,713
8,785 8,866
NESTLEIND
19,842
20,068
20,209 20,436 20,577
NTPC
162
164
166
168
170
ONGC
127
129
131
134
136
POWERGRID
212
215
217
219
222
RELIANCE 2,435 2,453
2,485
2,503 2,535
SBILIFE 1,218 1,232
1,241
1,255
1,264
SBIN
553
557
561
565
570
SUNPHARMA 966 972
982
988
998
TCS
3,108
3,123
3,142
3,156
3,175
TATACONSUM
740
751
766
777
792
TATAMOTORS
391
394
398
402
406
TATASTEEL 98 99
100 101 102
TECHM
1,026
1,033
1,039
1,047
1,052
TITAN
2,622
2,644
2,662
2,684
2,701
ULTRACEMCO
6,261
6,312
6,367
6,417
6,472
UPL
680
690
707
717
734
WIPRO 379 381
382
384
385
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Technical & Derivatives Report
OCT 25, 2022
*
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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