November 23, 2021
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Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty Bank Outlook - (37129)
Post a long weekend, the bank nifty started on a positive note in fact
above the Thursday’s high. However, it slipped lower right from the
word go and the selling pressure got intense to break one by one key
support levels with ease to mark an intraday low of 36655. Eventually,
with some modest recovery in the fag end the bank index ended with
a loss of 2.23% tad at 37129.
The bank nifty has been a clear under performer and the way it slipped
yesterday the bears are definitely in strong momentum. Since we have
already witnessed a decent correction from all time high in a short
span of time the oscillators are in oversold territory hence we may see
some in between bounce. However as highlighted above the
momentum is gripped by bears and the bounce are likely to be short
lived. Hence, we advise to lighten up longs in case we see any bounce.
In such scenario, immediate resistance can be seen around 37600 –
37800 levels. On the flip side, support is at 36600 and 36200 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 36600 Resistance 1 – 37600
Support 2 – 36200 Resistance 2 – 37800
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (58466) / Nifty (17417)
The SGX Nifty was indicating a pleasant start for the week in line with
cheerful global bourses. However we did not open with the same
positivity and in fact gave up all gains in the initial trades itself. As the
day progressed, the selling augmented across the broader market to
break all intermediate supports one after another. During the final
hour, market managed to minimize the damage; but still ended the
session with nearly a couple of percent loss.
With yesterday’s correction, Nifty marked the weakest session in last
eight odd months. Throughout last week, our market was feeling the
pressure and kept sliding gradually towards the key support of 17700.
Technically this level was important because it coincided with the
crucial neckline support of bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern which
formed over the past couple of months. With reference to our recent
commentary, we had anticipated formation of this pattern and
yesterday finally it got confirmed as we convincingly closed below the
neckline of the same. Yesterday’s massive fall finally validates our
recent cautious stance on the market. Yesterday’s low precisely
coincides with the daily ’89-EMA’ and generally we consider this as a
sheet anchor for prices. But this time, we do not expect it to play similar
kind of role for the market. We may see small rebounds since market is
a bit oversold, but the possibility of extending this correction is pretty
high.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
After
17250
, the Nifty is likely to continue this weakness towards
the psychological level of 17000; where one need to reassess the
situation. On the flipside, 17500 – 17650 are now to be considered
as immediate hurdles. Traders are advised to use in between
recoveries to lighten up longs and don’t be in a hurry to make
bottom fishing.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17300 Resistance 1 – 17500
Support 2 – 17250 Resistance 2 – 17650
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November 23, 2021
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We had a optimistic start for the monthly expiry week
to touch 17800 in the early morning trade. However,
inline to recent trend we saw selling pressure to first
drag index below 17700 and then 17300 . Due to some
respite in the fag end index concluded the day tad
above 17400.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 3439 crores. In index futures, they
bought worth Rs. 134 crores with increase in open
interest indicating long formations.
In F&O space, we saw open interest addition in both the
indices which suggest continuation of short formation
for the fourth consecutive sessions. Surprisingly, FIIs
were net buyers in index and stock futures segment
which hints they preferred adding some longs. In index
options front, we saw massive writing in 17500-17800
call options; whereas, 17200-17250 put strikes added
some fresh bets. The PCR-OI plunged further to 0.67 and
we believe market has turned oversold and any bounce
back move can’t be ruled out. At this point in time, 17500-
17600 shall act as a study hurdle and 17200-17300 levels
are the immediate support zone.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.78%.
and Nifty futures open interest has increased by 6.90%
as market closed at 17416.50 levels.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
18.50 point against a premium of 28.1 point in last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 67.95 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 14.87 to 17.51. At the same
time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 0.78 to
0.67.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are KOTAKBANK, VEDL, ASHOKLEY, NTPC
and BHEL.
Nifty Vs OI
16800
17000
17200
17400
17600
17800
18000
18200
18400
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
10-25 10-27 10-29 11-2 11-4 11-10 11-12 11-16 11-18
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
UBL
1726900 19.47 1586.70 -2.60
BEL
27842600 13.09 203.00 -2.77
POWERGRID
25945045 12.93 194.20 0.62
IPCALAB
3507075 10.63 2031.70 -0.70
EICHERMOT
4820900 10.42 2547.95 -2.22
NAVINFLUOR
756000 8.42 3287.50 -7.26
RELIANCE
36653750 7.24 2363.75 -4.39
AMBUJACEM
13099500 7.19 388.70 -2.88
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ESCORTS
7778100 -12.78 1802.75 -0.25
INDIAMART
205725 -11.91 7520.60 -1.15
IDEA
921060000 -10.20 10.60 6.00
LTTS
612400 -9.60 5348.35 -4.97
ASTRAL
550825 -9.00 2228.35 -3.32
LALPATHLAB
569000 -8.89 3471.50 -3.58
SRF
3528625 -8.63 2093.90 -4.65
PFIZER
198000 -8.33 4934.70 -2.90
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY
0.78 0.85
BANKNIFTY
0.66 0.82
RELIANCE
0.47 0.42
ICICIBANK
0.39 0.42
INFY
0.52 0.48
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ALKEM
31.55
NAVINFLUOR
52.22
AARTIIND
44.72
DEEPAKNTR
56.09
NAUKRI
50.01
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 23, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot = 17416.55
FII Statistics for November 22, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
7266.55 7132.80 133.75
183672 16319.90 1.52
INDEX
OPTIONS
568145.36 563708.48 4436.88
1689019 149713.89 33.59
297314.41
STOCK
FUTURES
54880.49 53424.46 1456.03
1840982 132554.28 (0.16)
STOCK
OPTIONS
39155.42 37928.54 1226.88
334695 24869.60 (4.92)
Total
669447.82
662194.28
7253.54
4048368
323457.67
11.18
43446.77
Turnover on November 22, 2021
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
486985 43913.25 33.38
Index Options
67040623 6157081.47
-56.64
Stock Futures
2228998 167840.28 55.12
Stock Options
4381113 354363.23 12.02
Total
7,41,37,719 6723198.23
-54.13
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17400 136.05
50.10 49.90 17450.10
Sell
17500 85.95
Buy
17400 136.05
86.85 113.15 17486.85
Sell
17600 49.20
Buy
17500 85.95
36.75 63.25 17536.75
Sell
17600 49.20
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17400 103.10
34.15 65.85 17365.85
Sell
17300 68.95
Buy
17400 103.10
58.40 141.60 17341.60
Sell
17200 44.70
Buy
17300 68.95
24.25 75.75 17275.75
Sell
17200 44.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
7000,000
8000,000
9000,000
16700 16800 16900 17000 17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 23, 2021
`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 688 702
717 731 747
ASIANPAINT 3,168 3,215
3,262 3,308 3,355
AXISBANK 657 672
692 707 728
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,336 3,390
3,480 3,534 3,624
BAJFINANCE 6,663 6,861
7,188 7,385 7,712
BAJAJFINSV 16,038 16,556
17,348 17,866 18,658
BPCL 384 390
399 405 414
BHARTIARTL 721 731
744 754 767
BRITANNIA 3,535 3,558
3,593 3,617 3,652
CIPLA 870 883
896 909 922
COALINDIA 147 149
151 153 155
DIVISLAB 4,556 4,618
4,728 4,789 4,900
DRREDDY 4,518 4,563
4,626 4,671 4,734
EICHERMOT 2,470 2,509
2,556 2,595 2,642
GRASIM 1,727 1,753
1,776 1,801 1,824
HCLTECH 1,089 1,099
1,113 1,123 1,137
HDFCBANK 1,469 1,492
1,522 1,546 1,576
HDFCLIFE 669 679
694 704 720
HDFC 2,856 2,875
2,905 2,924 2,954
HEROMOTOCO 2,571 2,603
2,651 2,682 2,730
HINDALCO 426 434
441 449 456
HINDUNILVR 2,359 2,374
2,392 2,407 2,425
ICICIBANK 724 738
754 768 784
IOC 120 122
126 128 132
INDUSINDBK 970 988
1,007 1,026 1,044
INFY 1,731 1,745
1,765 1,779 1,800
ITC 223 227
234 238 245
JSW STEEL 637 647
655 665 674
KOTAKBANK 1,877 1,916
1,980 2,019 2,083
LT 1,805 1,835
1,867 1,897 1,930
M&M 872 886
908 923 945
MARUTI 7,572 7,718
7,953 8,099 8,334
NESTLEIND 18,398 18,697
19,131 19,430 19,865
NTPC 125 128
132 135 139
ONGC 141 144
149 152 156
POWERGRID 189 192
194 197 199
RELIANCE 2,290 2,327
2,388 2,425 2,486
SBILIFE 1,107 1,129
1,159 1,181 1,212
SHREECEM 25,778 26,190
26,740 27,153 27,703
SBIN 461 474
490 502 518
SUNPHARMA 748 759
777 788 806
TCS 3,396 3,427
3,472 3,503 3,547
TATACONSUM
788 800
820 832 851
TATAMOTORS 458 472
492 506 526
TATASTEEL 1,118 1,142
1,169 1,193 1,220
TECHM 1,486 1,514
1,548 1,575 1,610
TITAN 2,273 2,332
2,412 2,471 2,552
ULTRACEMCO 7,413 7,533
7,671 7,791 7,929
UPL 683 700
723 740 764
WIPRO 625 635
648 657 670
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Technical & Derivatives Report
November 23, 2021
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelone.in
