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, 2023
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Following a mid-week holiday, the Bank Nifty commenced its trading
session with a substantial gap-down opening. Apart from a brief
bounce during the initial hour, there was no major relief for this high
beta index throughout the day. As the day unfolded, prices steadily
declined, ultimately concluding with a cut of 1.29%, closing just below
the 45400 mark.
On Monday, prices exhibited some caution around the all-time high
levels, and yesterday it witnessed further profit-booking, extending
the week's losses. The primary culprit on both days was the heavily
weighted HDFC Bank, which has witnessed a decline of around 6% for
the week. Although the overall sentiment remains positive for the
bank index, the bullish momentum has dwindled, and the subsequent
actions of the prominent constituents in this sector will be pivotal in
determining the next phase of upward movement. In our sense, prices
are retracing their gains of this month due to the fact that indicators
were significantly overbought. In this context, prices have retraced by
38.2% and are currently positioned around its support. The
subsequent retracement levels stand at 50% around 45000 and 61.8%
near 44700. These levels are deemed optimal points for a bullish
reversal, and therefore, traders should diligently monitor them.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
6801
) / Nifty (
19901
)
The negative global sentiments, followed by correction in index
heavyweights like Reliance and HDFC Bank, led to a strong gap-down
start for our market. The Nifty50 index opened below the psychological
support of the 20000, which dampened the overall sentiments and the
initial attempt to reclaim the same went in vain, further curbing the
bullish instinct in the market. The bulls gradually kept losing their grip,
and Nifty finally settled the day on a negative note around 19900 odd
zone, losing slightly over a percent post the mid-week holiday.
The recent development ahead of the FOMC meeting adds a cautious
tone for the participants and any global aberrations could trigger a
more vigorous bout of profit booking in the markets. On the technical
parameters, the index has seen a negative crossover on the RSI from
the overbought territory and has retracted towards the 38.20%
Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally, placed around 19840 zone,
which is to be seen as the subsequent potential support for Nifty,
followed by the 20 DEMA around 19790. On the higher end,
the 20000 mark is likely to act as the primary hurdle, followed by the
bearish gap of 20050-20115, while 20200 holds the sturdy wall in the
near period.
We have seen a sort of price-wise correction in the recent sessions,
with many stock adjustments after three weeks of consecutive
rallies. However, such corrections need to be considered healthy in
a bullish market. Now, all eyes are on the Fed policy meeting, which
could dictate the near-term trend for global markets. Meanwhile, we
advocate traders to refrain from aggressive bets and stay very
selective with stock preferences.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19840 Resistance 1 – 20000
Support 2 – 19790 Resistance 2 – 20050
Any signs of strength should prompt consideration of long positions.
Conversely, the bearish gap observed yesterday, situated between
45740 and 46000, is likely to function as immediate resistance.
Traders are advised to monitor the above-mentioned levels and
exercise caution to avoid unnecessary risks at this juncture.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 45000 Resistance 1 – 45740
Support 2 – 44700 Resistance 2 – 46000
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View
The Indian equity market began the day on a nervous
note taking cues from the global market. Post
opening, we saw an attempt of recovery which got
sold into and the index showcased selling pressure
throughout the day to end with a massive cut of over
a percent around 19900.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 3110 cr. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they sold worth Rs. 2182 cr with a massive
decrease in open interest, suggesting long
unwinding.
On the derivatives front, we witnessed decent long
unwinding in Nifty; whereas the banking index
witnessed a blend of short formation and long
unwinding. On the options front, put writers shifted
their position to 19900-19800 strikes, indicating a
downward shift in the support base. On the flip side,
a huge pile-up of positions is seen in 20000 call
options which is likely to act as an immediate hurdle
for weekly expiry session. FIIs curtailed longs, ‘Long
Short Ratio’ corrects to 61% from 66% at the start of
the week. Considering yesterday’s development, it’s
advisable to stay light for now.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 7.59%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
0.32% as the market closed at 19,901.4.
The Nifty September future closed with a premium of
70.65 points against 57.25 points in the last trading
session. The October series closed at a premium of
186.35 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 10.84 to 11.13. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.10
to 0.80.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are BAJAJ-AUTO, ICICIPRULI, IDEA, IOC and
IPCALAB.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HDFCBANK 24.69
ZYDUSLIFE 28.49
JKCEMENT 34.59
AUBANK 39.42
RELIANCE 26.55
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9-5 9-7 9-11 9-13 9-15 9-19
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HINDCOPPER 39241200 19.75 159.10 1.02
HDFCBANK 131626000 18.09 1563.70 -3.97
RELIANCE 50369500 11.17 2382.15 -2.13
HEROMOTOCO 4259700 8.27 3061.80 -1.43
GLENMARK 8847900 8.21 856.60 0.94
BERGEPAINT 10873500 7.26 747.10 -1.21
VEDL 70200000 6.72 231.80 -1.79
LALPATHLAB 1080300 6.63 2415.35 2.46
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PNB 17600 -7.88 76.45 -0.91
TATASTEEL 233068000 -6.78 128.30 -1.42
IPCALAB 2218450 -6.77 913.25 -0.80
RAMCOCEM 3390650 -4.89 874.50 -0.97
ULTRACEMCO 1388400 -4.47 8458.15 -1.86
BHARATFORG 8956000 -4.27 1128.25 0.84
MPHASIS 2356750 -4.20 2482.70 0.30
NAUKRI 1522650 -3.86 4464.85 -0.27
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.80 0.79
BANKNIFTY 0.69 0.97
RELIANCE 0.44 0.42
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.51
INFY 0.48 0.54
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Sep Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19901.40
FII Statistics for
September
20
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3919.47
6101.73
(2182.26) 157301
14021.10
(18.52)
INDEX
OPTIONS
2827078.58
2880122.40
(53043.82) 3016358
276301.56
(11.46)
STOCK
FUTURES
17877.29
18802.41
(925.12) 2359206
188421.20
0.17
STOCK
OPTIONS
29309.79
29477.02
(167.23) 358604
29025.22
3.57
Total
2878185.13
2934503.56
(56318.43) 5891469
507769.08
(6.51)
Turnover on
September
20
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
220510 17703.92
-3.68
Index
Options
383485830
42985.73
-8.26
Stock Futures
800617 67970.73
-15.77
Stock
Options
4392077 4979.39 -7.71
Total
43,92,077
4979.39 -11.69
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19900 161.70
58.15
41.85
19958.15
Sell
20000 103.55
Buy
19900 161.70
100.25
99.75
20000.25
Sell
20100 61.45
Buy
20000 103.55
42.10 57.90 20042.10
Sell
20100 61.45
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19900 88.15
30.70
69.30
19869.30
Sell 19800 57.45
Buy 19900 88.15
51.45
148.55
19848.55
Sell
19700 36.70
Buy
19800 57.45
20.75 79.25 19779.25
Sell 19700 36.70
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500 20600
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,413 2,442 2,488 2,516 2,562
ADANIPORTS 801 810 824 832 846
APOLLOHOSP 4,868 4,937 4,998 5,068 5,129
ASIANPAINT 3,179 3,197 3,212 3,230 3,245
AXISBANK 994 1,011 1,029 1,046 1,064
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,107 5,145 5,204 5,242 5,301
BAJFINANCE 7,392 7,466 7,556 7,630 7,720
BAJAJFINSV 1,532 1,543 1,556 1,566 1,579
BPCL 348 350 354 356 359
BHARTIARTL 897 904 912 918 926
BRITANNIA 4,455 4,491 4,544 4,580 4,633
CIPLA 1,226 1,233 1,243 1,250 1,259
COALINDIA 275 280 284 289 293
DIVISLAB 3,731 3,755 3,779 3,804 3,828
DRREDDY 5,526 5,571 5,646 5,691 5,766
EICHERMOT 3,349 3,395 3,423 3,469 3,496
GRASIM 1,915 1,930 1,945 1,960 1,975
HCLTECH 1,270 1,282 1,293 1,304 1,315
HDFCBANK 1,536 1,550 1,574 1,588 1,613
HDFCLIFE 638 643 651 656 665
HEROMOTOCO 2,996 3,029 3,081 3,114 3,166
HINDALCO 469 474 480 485 491
HINDUNILVR 2,429 2,448 2,464 2,483 2,499
ICICIBANK 973 980 988 995 1,003
INDUSINDBK 1,393 1,417 1,446 1,470 1,499
INFY 1,468 1,479 1,487 1,498 1,506
ITC 447 450 453 456 458
JSW STEEL 769 778 794 803 820
KOTAKBANK 1,762 1,776 1,790 1,803 1,817
LT 2,848 2,869 2,907 2,928 2,966
LTIMINDTREE 5,410 5,442 5,485 5,516 5,559
M&M 1,595 1,614 1,640 1,659 1,685
MARUTI 10,236 10,292 10,393 10,448 10,549
NESTLEIND 22,417 22,549 22,688 22,819 22,958
NTPC 237 239 243 245 248
ONGC 185 186 188 190 191
POWERGRID 196 200 203 208 211
RELIANCE 2,316 2,349 2,388 2,422 2,461
SBILIFE 1,318 1,331 1,354 1,368 1,391
SBIN 595 598 602 605 610
SUNPHARMA 1,132 1,143 1,149 1,160 1,166
TCS 3,559 3,582 3,604 3,627 3,649
TATACONSUM
856 863 872 879 888
TATAMOTORS 631 635 641 645 651
TATASTEEL 126 127 129 131 133
TECHM 1,257 1,266 1,278 1,286 1,298
TITAN 3,270 3,288 3,319 3,337 3,368
ULTRACEMCO 8,325 8,392 8,508 8,574 8,690
UPL 616 619 624 627 632
WIPRO 424 427 432 435 440
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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