October
1
9
, 2023
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On the day of its weekly expiry, Bank Nifty started the day on a flat
note and remained indiscriminate for the initial hour of the
day. Afterward, the index started plummeting rapidly and proceeded
to test its crucial support around the levels of 43800. Following this
retest, most of the day was spent in sideways consolidation, as buyers
defended their territory vigorously. Bank Nifty closed the day at
43890, very close to its crucial support levels, marking a decline of 1.17
percent for the day.
The decline in this heavy weight index yesterday does not come as a
surprise for us, as we have consistently held a cautious outlook on this
index. Furthermore, yesterday’s formation of a bearish Belt-hold line
candlestick on its daily chart, indicates further weakness. The index
now has also broken below its short-term 5-DEMA, magnifying
weakness in the index. Despite all the bearish connotations on Bank
Nifty, the index remains within the markings of its short-term trading
range; 44600 on the upside and 43800 on the downside. Traders
should keep an eye out for a break of this range to potentially signal a
pick-up in momentum and a trending move.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
5877
) / Nifty (
19
671
)
Following the subdued activity of the Gifty Nifty, our markets started
the session on a flat note. In the initial hour, prices hovered around the
upper boundary of the recent consolidation range. However, weakness
became apparent in the following hours, persisting throughout the day.
Eventually, the Nifty closed with a 0.71% cut, ending at 19671.
Over the past few sessions, prices have been trading within a narrow
range. Unfortunately, yesterday witnessed a breakdown of this range,
but on the downside. This breakdown raises the possibility of extended
weakness during the weekly expiry session. In this scenario, key
support levels to monitor include 19635, followed by 19550 and 19480
levels. On the flip side, any attempts to rebound towards the
breakdown range of 19750 - 19800 are likely to face strong resistance.
For the bulls to regain control, they must close above the recent higher
range of 19850-19880 convincingly. Until then, any rebound attempts
are expected to be met with selling pressure. While the broader
markets had been performing relatively well in recent days, weakness
was evident yesterday. Additionally, the Midcap Index is currently
encountering significant resistance, so it's advisable to avoid aggressive
bets until signs of improved performance emerge. Also, it's important
to keep a close watch on geopolitical concerns as they are likely to
define the market's trend.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19550 Resistance 1 – 19750
Support 2 – 19480 Resistance 2 – 19800
As far as levels are concerned, any rise in this index is likely to meet
with some selling around the 44250 - 44300 zone, whereas crucial
directional supports are placed at 43800 - 43500.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43800 Resistance 1 – 44250
Support 2 – 43500 Resistance 2 – 44300
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The trading for the day started on a flat note but
selling got aggravated as the day progressed with no
sign of reversal. Eventually, the index closed tad
below 19700 with a cut of 0.70%
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1832 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 385 cr in Index futures with a good amount
of rise in open interest, indicating the addition of
fresh shorts.
On the derivatives front, we observed decent profit
booking in Nifty, while BankNifty added meaningful
shorts. FIIs turned net sellers in equities and index
and stock futures segments. However, on a net basis,
FIIs trimmed their bearish positions in index futures,
leading to a modest increase in the LSR from 27% to
29% seen on Friday. For the festive weekly series, a
significant piling up of positions was seen at 19700-
19900 call strikes. On the flip side, 19600 followed by
19500 put strike have attracted substantial open
interest. At this point in time, we need to keep a
close tab on global development and strictly avoid
aggressive bets.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.33%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
32.30% as the market closed at 19671.10.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of
12.25 points against a discount of 0.40 points in the last
trading session. The November series closed at a
premium of 141.20 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 10.70 to 10.97. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.08
to 0.82.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are DELTACORP, IDEA, INDIACEM,
ABCAPITAL and PVRINOX.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SYNGENE 32.26
BIOCON 35.89
LTTS 38.42
ABB 35.52
CIPLA 26.89
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
9-29 10-5 10-9 10-12 10-16 10-18
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LTTS 1200000 55.93 4353.60 -5.66
SYNGENE 5033000 23.63 727.30 -6.77
ABB 1341250 21.93 4098.35 -4.19
BIOCON 39957500 17.01 238.65 -6.26
CIPLA 10957700 15.70 1210.60 3.40
APOLLOTYRE 16615800 13.13 382.80 -1.82
IPCALAB 2582450 11.51 964.45 -0.98
PNB 280688000 10.03 74.20 -2.30
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MCX 17600 -6.94 2193.85 -0.76
BSOFT 7912000 -6.54 546.65 -1.76
ALKEM 694400 -6.14 3632.90 0.42
BOSCHLTD 121950 -5.79 20121.15 -0.63
BHEL 102574500 -5.20 129.20 -2.53
MPHASIS 2891350 -4.76 2255.20 -1.52
GNFC 9692800 -4.74 668.15 2.25
INFY 26630800 -4.63 1440.55 0.02
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.82 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.74 0.96
RELIANCE 0.53 0.40
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.51
INFY 0.40 0.50
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19
671.10
FII Statistics for
October
1
8
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3116.78 3501.78 (385.00) 193102 15500.17 12.90
INDEX
OPTIONS
2172894.44 2201320.37 (28425.93) 3134377 275931.65 (23.36)
STOCK
FUTURES
14165.72
15661.32
(1495.60) 2431525
191634.81
1.20
STOCK
OPTIONS
32163.41 31812.58 350.83
243966 19791.73 1.21
Total
2222340.35
2252296.05
(29955.70) 6002970
502858.36
(13.06)
Turnover on
October
1
8
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
199055 15938.62
2.82
Index Options
389518656
37584.05
-8.16
Stock Futures
746466 61833.95
5.89
Stock Options
4286881 4039.15 -1.27
Total
42,86,881 4039.15 0.41
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700
115.30 46.40
53.60
19746.40
Sell
19800
68.90
Buy
19700 115.30 77.90
122.10
19777.90
Sell
19900 37.40
Buy
19800
68.90 31.50 68.50 19831.50
Sell
19900 37.40
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700 128.35
40.05
59.95
19659.95
Sell 19600 88.30
Buy 19700 128.35
69.05
130.95
19630.95
Sell
19500 59.30
Buy
19600 88.30
29.00 71.00 19571.00
Sell 19500 59.30
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,376 2,391 2,416 2,432 2,457
ADANIPORTS 787 793 801 807 815
APOLLOHOSP 4,884 4,930 4,985 5,032 5,087
ASIANPAINT 3,075 3,086 3,101 3,111 3,126
AXISBANK 974 983 999 1,008 1,024
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,081 5,109 5,154 5,182 5,227
BAJFINANCE 7,699 7,783 7,934 8,017 8,168
BAJAJFINSV 1,595 1,612 1,638 1,655 1,681
BPCL 344 347 352 355 360
BHARTIARTL 946 949 954 958 962
BRITANNIA 4,569 4,588 4,606 4,625 4,642
CIPLA 1,159 1,185 1,202 1,228 1,245
COALINDIA 313 315 317 319 322
DIVISLAB 3,602 3,622 3,653 3,672 3,704
DRREDDY 5,485 5,581 5,638 5,734 5,791
EICHERMOT 3,444 3,470 3,508 3,535 3,573
GRASIM 1,926 1,941 1,966 1,981 2,006
HCLTECH 1,259 1,264 1,273 1,278 1,287
HDFCBANK 1,503 1,512 1,526 1,535 1,549
HDFCLIFE 633 639 644 650 654
HEROMOTOCO 3,127 3,140 3,162 3,175 3,197
HINDALCO 477 481 488 492 499
HINDUNILVR 2,521 2,535 2,553 2,566 2,585
ICICIBANK 933 938 945 950 956
INDUSINDBK 1,398 1,409 1,427 1,438 1,455
INFY 1,429 1,435 1,444 1,450 1,460
ITC 446 449 454 456 461
JSW STEEL 769 777 789 797 809
KOTAKBANK 1,728 1,741 1,758 1,771 1,788
LT 3,012 3,029 3,054 3,071 3,096
LTIMINDTREE 4,965 5,060 5,133 5,228 5,300
M&M 1,554 1,565 1,572 1,582 1,590
MARUTI 10,671 10,730 10,770 10,829 10,869
NESTLEIND 23,056 23,160 23,303 23,407 23,551
NTPC 238 240 243 245 249
ONGC 185 186 187 188 189
POWERGRID 202 204 206 209 211
RELIANCE 2,291 2,308 2,337 2,354 2,383
SBILIFE 1,332 1,344 1,351 1,364 1,371
SBIN 564 568 574 578 584
SUNPHARMA 1,122 1,138 1,150 1,165 1,178
TCS 3,459 3,473 3,498 3,512 3,537
TATACONSUM
878 887 901 910 924
TATAMOTORS 646 657 665 676 683
TATASTEEL 125 126 127 128 130
TECHM 1,165 1,176 1,189 1,200 1,213
TITAN 3,248 3,265 3,295 3,312 3,341
ULTRACEMCO 8,190 8,234 8,292 8,336 8,394
UPL 612 616 622 626 632
WIPRO 403 405 409 412 416
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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