October
1
8
, 2023
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Bank Nifty had an encouraging start to the day’s proceedings, thanks
to encouraging overnight rally in US bourses. However, it has been the
norm in the past few trading sessions. bears responded with
vengeance; sighting prices around the level of 44600 and pulled prices
lower immediately at open. Following this initial drop, prices
consolidated for a brief period before witnessing another round of
selling pressure, which resulted in retesting of 44300. The day
summoned, with participants slightly recouping losses and closing the
day around 44400.
Despite a decent start, we do not see any significant change in the
technical structure of this rate sensitive index. In fact, yesterday’s
failure to maintain higher grounds following the gap up, paints a
gloomy picture for the index and vindicates our less optimistic outlook
on the index. The BANKNIFTY continues to be the weakest link as its
facing resistance across the confluence of the 20-DEMA and the 50-
DEMA.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
6
428
) /
Nifty (
19
811
)
Globally, although the geopolitical concerns have not subsided yet, the
financial markets are not getting impacted as of now. The US markets
had a soothing rally Monday night which set the tone for a pleasant
opening in our markets early in the morning. Subsequently, our
benchmark index managed to extend gains towards the 19850 mark.
However, there is not enough strength in the market to go past this
sturdy wall, resulting in a bout of small profit booking in the latter half
of the day. Eventually, Nifty ended the session with nearly four tenths
of a percent gains a tad above the key level of 19800.
Our markets are showing tremendous resilience and are now trading at
the higher end of the range. We are not getting affected by the global
uncertainty, but we are still not completely out of the woods yet. For
the coming session, 19850 – 19900 remains a cluster of resistances and
only if global markets support, we would see this upper range getting
surpassed in the upward direction. However, we still believe that such
‘war’ kind of scenarios are very deceptive and can caught traders on
the wrong foot anytime. Hence, it’s advisable to stay light on positions
and should keep a close eye on global developments. As far as supports
are concerned, 19750 – 19630 are to be considered as important levels
in the coming session.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19750 Resistance 1 – 19880
Support 2 – 19630 Resistance 2 – 19940
A breakout and close above this sturdy wall, which currently
coincides in the range of 44600-44700; is likely to boost confidence
amongst participants in this index. On the other hand, a drop below
the level of 44000 could trigger further weakness in this index.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 44000 Resistance 1 – 44500
Support 2 – 43800 Resistance 2 – 44700
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The trading for the day started on a cheerful note
and follow-up buying pushed index towards 19850
mark. However, due to some profit taking in the
second half, the Nifty settled tad above 19800 with
the gains of four tenth of a percent.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 264 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 465 cr in Index futures with a decline in
open interest, indicating a covering of shorts.
On the derivatives front, some fresh buying was
observed in Nifty and short covering took place in
banking index. FIIs turned net buyers in equities and
covered a few shorts in the index and stock futures
segment. For the festive weekly series, put writers
shifted higher to 19800 put strike. On the flip side,
build-up remained scattered between 19850-20000
call strikes, wherein 19900 followed by 20000 strikes
holds the highest open interest concentration now.
At this point in time, we need to keep a close tab on
global development and strictly avoid aggressive
bets.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.21%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
6.11% as the market closed at 19811.50.
The Nifty October future closed with a discount of 0.40
points against a premium of 8.65 points in the last
trading session. The November series closed at a
premium of 122.40 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 11.07 to 10.70. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.04 to 1.08.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are DELTACORP, IDEA, INDIACEM,
ABCAPITAL and PVRINOX.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CANFINHOME 42.32
DALBHARAT 36.47
L&TFH 41.52
HAVELLS 29.49
SBILIFE 26.70
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
9-28 10-3 10-6 10-10 10-13 10-17
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOTYRE 14688000 20.69 389.90 2.06
CANFINHOME 5103150 12.20 768.25 4.05
HAVELLS 6672000 11.69 1384.05 -2.10
LTTS 769600 11.12 4613.45 -1.58
EXIDEIND 18075600 10.52 268.80 1.60
MPHASIS 3036000 9.75 2290.75 -2.25
MRF 45520 8.20 110887.10 1.37
DALBHARAT 2483000 8.19 2255.90 -3.09
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCLIFE 17600 -10.78 641.80 1.90
GNFC 10175100 -7.85 652.60 -2.70
MCX 2722400 -7.74 2194.65 -0.68
OFSS 316400 -6.45 4170.85 1.29
BHEL 108202500 -5.81 132.45 0.99
LALPATHLAB 1059300 -5.39 2546.90 -0.33
GODREJCP 9067000 -4.85 997.15 1.23
DELTACORP 13302800 -4.71 130.35 3.21
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.08 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.75 0.97
RELIANCE 0.56 0.44
ICICIBANK 0.56 0.46
INFY 0.40 0.38
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19
811.50
FII Statistics for
October
1
7
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2013.84
1549.33
464.51
171044
14243.51
(1.10)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1296421.57 1287583.17 8838.40
4089740 330197.74 3.33
STOCK
FUTURES
12837.12 10649.45 2187.67
2402625 190709.68 (0.34)
STOCK
OPTIONS
24706.66 25180.67 (474.01) 241050 19663.03 1.37
Total
1335979.19
1324962.62
11016.57
6904459
554813.96
1.84
Turnover on
October
1
7
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
191553 15500.97
-33.87
Index Options
283868606
40924.83
9.77
Stock Futures
706359 58394.95
-21.90
Stock Options
3890000 4090.97 -22.02
Total
38,90,000 4090.97 -15.51
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800
127.20 49.95
50.05
19849.95
Sell
19900
77.25
Buy
19800 127.20 83.95
116.05
19883.95
Sell
20000 43.25
Buy
19900
77.25 34.00 66.00 19934.00
Sell
20000 43.25
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800 114.70
37.35
62.65
19762.65
Sell 19700 77.35
Buy 19800 114.70
62.95
137.05
19737.05
Sell
19600 51.75
Buy
19700 77.35
25.60 74.40 19674.40
Sell 19600 51.75
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,399 2,414 2,438 2,452 2,476
ADANIPORTS 797 801 808 812 818
APOLLOHOSP 4,981 5,005 5,036 5,060 5,092
ASIANPAINT 3,069 3,091 3,114 3,136 3,159
AXISBANK 997 1,003 1,009 1,014 1,020
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,040 5,091 5,120 5,171 5,200
BAJFINANCE 8,002 8,047 8,103 8,149 8,205
BAJAJFINSV 1,629 1,643 1,660 1,674 1,691
BPCL 342 348 353 359 364
BHARTIARTL 939 946 953 961 968
BRITANNIA 4,543 4,572 4,591 4,619 4,639
CIPLA 1,153 1,163 1,171 1,181 1,188
COALINDIA 310 314 316 320 322
DIVISLAB 3,586 3,616 3,657 3,688 3,729
DRREDDY 5,446 5,495 5,534 5,583 5,622
EICHERMOT 3,468 3,484 3,504 3,520 3,539
GRASIM 1,922 1,948 1,984 2,010 2,046
HCLTECH 1,268 1,272 1,276 1,280 1,284
HDFCBANK 1,523 1,532 1,544 1,553 1,565
HDFCLIFE 624 633 639 648 655
HEROMOTOCO 3,155 3,164 3,176 3,185 3,197
HINDALCO 477 481 485 488 492
HINDUNILVR 2,534 2,545 2,558 2,569 2,581
ICICIBANK 946 950 955 959 965
INDUSINDBK 1,407 1,422 1,440 1,454 1,473
INFY 1,429 1,436 1,445 1,451 1,460
ITC 447 450 452 456 458
JSW STEEL 784 787 791 795 799
KOTAKBANK 1,742 1,757 1,766 1,781 1,790
LT 3,030 3,048 3,081 3,099 3,132
LTIMINDTREE 5,153 5,183 5,207 5,237 5,260
M&M 1,561 1,569 1,576 1,584 1,592
MARUTI 10,472 10,611 10,705 10,844 10,937
NESTLEIND 23,040 23,183 23,273 23,415 23,505
NTPC 242 244 245 248 249
ONGC 185 186 186 187 188
POWERGRID 200 204 206 210 213
RELIANCE 2,334 2,344 2,352 2,363 2,370
SBILIFE 1,315 1,332 1,341 1,358 1,368
SBIN 573 575 577 579 582
SUNPHARMA 1,128 1,133 1,138 1,143 1,148
TCS 3,484 3,496 3,515 3,526 3,546
TATACONSUM
891 899 914 922 937
TATAMOTORS 644 650 660 666 677
TATASTEEL 126 127 128 128 129
TECHM 1,182 1,190 1,196 1,204 1,211
TITAN 3,289 3,299 3,314 3,323 3,338
ULTRACEMCO 8,252 8,277 8,304 8,329 8,356
UPL 617 621 628 632 639
WIPRO 409 410 412 413 415
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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