October
1
6
, 2023
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Technical & Derivatives Report
8
4
4
288
)
The week began on a gloomy note for this heavyweight index as it
opened with a gap down, largely due to geopolitical uncertainties.
After the initial gap down, Bank Nifty re-tested its crucial level of
43800, sparking some smart buying interest which gradually pulled the
index higher. However, as the index inched higher, it encountered
strong resistance from the convergence of major EMA’s and closed the
week with little significant activity for the remainder of the week,
ultimately closing at 44288, losing 0.16 percent from previous week.
Despite rebounding from the key support level of 43800, BANKNIFTY
struggled to go past the sturdy wall of 44700 - 44800 in the latter
half of the week. Even after the buoyant effort from bulls following
Monday’s gap down, there hasn’t been much yield and the formation
of two consecutive small bodied candles which practically resembles a
'Doji'. This was followed by a weak session on Friday with formation of
yet another 'Doji'. This indicates nervousness among the market
participants. The hesitancy around pivotal levels and the false
breakout above falling trendline on daily charts; does not portray a
rosy picture and traders should heed caution. A violation of above-
mentioned level of 43800 could potentially open the flood gates,
signalling short term weakness that might push the index towards the
levels of 43300 and 43500.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
6
283
) / Nifty (
19
7
51
)
During the last week, key indices commenced with a gap-down opening
due to mounting geopolitical concerns with respect to the Israel -
Palestine war. The overall situation is very dismal there; but fortunately
in the market, we did not see further escalation. As the week
progressed, the benchmark index gradually ascended in the following
sessions. In anticipation of key quarterly results of a few heavyweight
IT counters, the tentativeness was clearly visible at higher levels. On
Friday, we started the session with a decent cut; courtesy to weak
guidance from Infosys. Nevertheless, traders swiftly bought this dip
and recovered major lost ground. Eventually, the eventful week
concluded with a gain of half a percent, ending a tad above the 19750.
Throughout the week, there was a tug-of-war between bulls and bears,
ultimately leaving prices in an uncertain position. Several positive
developments, such as prices closing above key moving averages and a
favorable RSI smoothened buy signal, were noted. However, these
indicators are sometimes laggard (late to interpret), and the true
situation is identified by the momentum that seemed to be missing by
the bulls. Additionally, prices seemed tentative as they approached a
critical level of 61.8% retracement, coinciding with a key bearish gap. It
is essential for the bulls to convincingly surpass this crucial level around
19880, or else there might be the formation of a lower top on the daily
chart, potentially leading to near-term weakness. On the flip side, while
there was a willingness to buy on dips during the week, caution is
advised due to ongoing geopolitical concerns, and aggressive long bets
should be avoided overnight.
The next market direction will depend on global developments and
the quarterly earnings announcements of key heavyweight
companies. Traders should keep an eye on specific levels to assess
the trend. Key support levels for the week are 19600 and 19480,
while formidable barriers are set at 19880 and 20000. Throughout
the week, there were opportunities for stock-specific trades, and in
the future, trading opportunities may emerge on both sides of the
trend across various sectors as the earnings season begins. Traders
can focus on these opportunities for potential outperformance, but
they should exercise caution and be highly selective.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19600 Resistance 1 – 19880
Support 2 – 19480 Resistance 2 – 20000
On the contrary, hurdles for Bank Nifty are currently placed at every
short interval, and for this week the zone of 44500 - 44800 has now
become a tough nut to crack. As mentioned in our earlier reports,
markets appear to have entered a phase of uncertainty. Keeping that
in mind, it would be advisable for traders to monitor the above-
mentioned levels hawk-eyed and be patient for a while.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 44000 Resistance 1 – 44500
Support 2 – 43800 Resistance 2 – 44800
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
16
,
2023
View
The Indian equity market witnessed a volatile week.
The week was inaugurated on a rough note testing
19500 on the first day of the week; however, smart
recovery was seen from the next day onwards to
head towards 19850 mark. Friday we once again
witnessed a gap-down opening which got bought
into to end the week around 19750 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 317 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 785 cr in Index futures with a rise in open
interest, indicating the addition of fresh shorts.
On the derivatives front, open interest shed for the
key indices. FIIs continued to remain net sellers in
equities during the week and their activity in the
index futures segment remained muted. Their Long-
short ratio remained unchanged at 27% on a weekly
basis. For the coming festive weekly series, 19700
put and 19800 call strikes are attracting trader’s
attention. At this point in time, it’s advisable avoiding
any aggressive bets until the global uncertainty
subsides.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.10%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
9.56% as the market closed at 19751.05.
The Nifty October future closed with a discount of 9.00
points against 49.50 points in the last trading session.
The November series closed at a premium of 115.35
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 10.60 to 10.62. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 1.05
to 1.14.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are MOTHERSON, CROMPTON, CUB, BEL
and BIOCON.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CUMMINSIND 31.00
IDEA 65.65
ICICIGI 28.36
INDIGO 34.78
COROMANDEL 29.52
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
9-26 9-28 10-3 10-6 10-10 10-13
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
INDIGO 5887200 14.61 2607.55 0.94
INFY 28519200 13.14 1431.20 -3.22
PETRONET 28509000 13.12 231.05 1.03
SYNGENE 4019000 12.01 779.65 -2.37
METROPOLIS 1779200 11.17 1558.40 2.84
TATAMOTORS 75385350 10.10 667.10 4.53
SBIN 103080000 9.10 576.15 -1.95
AXISBANK 52659375 7.45 994.05 -2.26
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCAMC 17600 -11.60 2855.45 3.61
HCLTECH 11307100 -9.50 1255.85 2.84
TCS 11838050 -6.52 3570.75 0.66
SUNTV 9562500 -5.63 633.50 -1.02
MGL 2431200 -5.56 1128.10 0.26
LTTS 659000 -5.15 4726.05 0.14
ALKEM 756200 -4.95 3612.40 0.33
BSOFT 8228000 -4.94 543.50 -0.06
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.14 0.88
BANKNIFTY 0.81 0.86
RELIANCE 0.57 0.42
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.49
INFY 0.42 0.62
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
16
,
2023
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19
794
FII Statistics for
October
1
3
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2820.49 3604.96 (784.47) 177885 14528.63 7.92
INDEX
OPTIONS
812410.15 823092.96 (10682.81) 3506018 285899.77 38.54
STOCK
FUTURES
15830.47 15835.39 (4.92) 2411056 190635.70 0.05
STOCK
OPTIONS
30282.04 30355.28 (73.24) 223964 18220.15 6.02
Total
861343.15
872888.59
(11545.44) 6318923
509284.25
18.85
Turnover on
October
1
3
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
163188 13902.68
-32.08
Index Options
349198052
36977.83
-26.91
Stock Futures
799552 63622.39
13.09
Stock Options
4035391 4527.98 14.63
Total
40,35,391 4527.98 -9.32
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800
115.50 42.35
57.65
19842.35
Sell
19900
73.15
Buy
19800 115.50 70.85
129.15
19870.85
Sell
20000 44.65
Buy
19900
73.15 28.50 71.50 19928.50
Sell
20000 44.65
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800 169.70
45.05
54.95
19754.95
Sell 19700 124.65
Buy 19800 169.70
79.80
120.20
19720.20
Sell
19600 89.90
Buy
19700 124.65
34.75 65.25 19665.25
Sell 19600 89.90
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,385 2,420 2,457 2,492 2,530
ADANIPORTS 796 805 815 824 834
APOLLOHOSP 4,898 4,958 4,993 5,053 5,089
ASIANPAINT 3,106 3,127 3,150 3,171 3,193
AXISBANK 980 987 999 1,006 1,018
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,989 5,020 5,072 5,104 5,155
BAJFINANCE 7,903 7,978 8,030 8,104 8,157
BAJAJFINSV 1,610 1,628 1,639 1,657 1,668
BPCL 345 346 348 350 352
BHARTIARTL 943 948 952 958 962
BRITANNIA 4,490 4,532 4,557 4,599 4,624
CIPLA 1,143 1,155 1,162 1,175 1,182
COALINDIA 301 305 308 311 314
DIVISLAB 3,710 3,723 3,743 3,755 3,775
DRREDDY 5,366 5,413 5,469 5,516 5,571
EICHERMOT 3,413 3,445 3,472 3,504 3,531
GRASIM 1,960 1,971 1,986 1,997 2,012
HCLTECH 1,186 1,221 1,244 1,279 1,302
HDFCBANK 1,519 1,528 1,538 1,546 1,557
HDFCLIFE 606 616 624 634 643
HEROMOTOCO 3,060 3,079 3,099 3,118 3,138
HINDALCO 472 476 482 486 492
HINDUNILVR 2,529 2,549 2,563 2,583 2,597
ICICIBANK 938 945 951 958 964
INDUSINDBK 1,404 1,434 1,450 1,480 1,496
INFY 1,385 1,408 1,423 1,446 1,461
ITC 444 446 449 451 454
JSW STEEL 770 774 777 781 784
KOTAKBANK 1,744 1,753 1,761 1,771 1,779
LT 3,049 3,069 3,084 3,105 3,120
LTIMINDTREE 4,995 5,045 5,125 5,175 5,255
M&M 1,538 1,550 1,562 1,574 1,586
MARUTI 10,452 10,590 10,667 10,805 10,883
NESTLEIND 22,725 23,140 23,370 23,784 24,014
NTPC 238 240 242 244 246
ONGC 183 184 185 186 187
POWERGRID 198 200 201 203 204
RELIANCE 2,317 2,333 2,345 2,361 2,374
SBILIFE 1,303 1,310 1,320 1,326 1,336
SBIN 571 574 577 580 584
SUNPHARMA 1,113 1,129 1,138 1,154 1,163
TCS 3,506 3,538 3,558 3,590 3,610
TATACONSUM
878 895 907 925 936
TATAMOTORS 620 644 656 680 692
TATASTEEL 123 124 125 126 127
TECHM 1,169 1,182 1,192 1,205 1,215
TITAN 3,245 3,265 3,286 3,305 3,326
ULTRACEMCO 8,254 8,312 8,364 8,422 8,474
UPL 613 618 622 627 630
WIPRO 406 409 412 414 417
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October
16
,
2023
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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