SEPT 16, 2022
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Nifty Bank Outlook (41209)
After a flat start, Bank Nifty immediately witnessed a follow-up
move to the previous session run, and within the first half an hour
itself, the Bank Index marked a fresh new high. The excitement for
this new achievement was however short-lived as we witnessed
profit booking during the remaining part of the session to
eventually end with a cut of 0.47% tad above 41200.
In line with our expectations, the bank index marked a fresh new
high yesterday however after achieving this target we saw some
profit booking and it was obvious after the sharp up move seen
from the Wednesday's swing low the intraday indicators were
highly overbought. The undertone remains bullish however since
the initial target has been achieved and considering yesterday's
sluggishness after marking a fresh new high; one needs to be
watchful for the next few sessions. Ideally going with the primary
uptrend, one should remain with the recent strategy of buying on
dips with strong support placed at Wednesday's low around 40300
whereas for the momentum to trigger again prices need to see a
sustained close above 41900 levels. Immediate supports to
consider for buying on dips would be in the range of 40750 - 41000.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 41000 Resistance 1 – 41600
Support 2 – 40750 Resistance 2 – 41850
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
Sensex (59934) / Nifty (17877)
Wednesday’s dramatic session was followed by a pleasant start
yesterday morning. Within few minutes of trade, Nifty moved
towards 18100 and meanwhile the banking index just hastened to
register a new high of 41840.15. It looked like as if we are going to
have a great weekly expiry yesterday. But as mostly market
surprises every now and then, we witnessed a sharp profit booking
thereafter to not only pare down gains but also slipped well inside
the negative territory. With some volatile swings in the latter half,
the Nifty eventually concluded the weekly expiry with a cut of seven
tenths of a percent, tad below the 17900 mark.
Yesterday’s profit booking in BANKNIFTY was no surprise to us; but
the way it closed at the lowest point of the day, was a bit
unexpected. This price development should be construed as merely
a profit booking in key indices. But next couple of sessions would be
quite important in order to maintain the recent positivity. As far as
Nifty is concerned, Wednesday’s low of 17770 would be seen as a
pivotal point and till the time, we are able to defend it, there is no
reason to worry for. On the flipside, 17950 followed by 18100 are
to be considered as immediate hurdles.
As of now, we continue to remain upbeat and expect the market
to resume its upward trend, if there is no aberration on the global
front. Meanwhile, Midcaps continue to buck the trend and hence
its advisable to keep focusing on such ideas.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17800 Resistance 1 – 17950
Support 2 – 17770 Resistance 2 – 18100
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Our market has witnessed some tentativeness at
higher levels, wherein the benchmark index has seen
a round of profit booking. With some volatile swings in
the latter half, Nifty concluded the day in red with a cut
of 0.70 percent and settled a tad below 17900 level.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1270 crores. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they sold worth Rs. 944 crores with a mere
increase in open interest, indicating short formation.
Looking at the overall F&O data, we have witnessed
long unwinding in Bank Nifty and some short addition
in the Nifty. On the options front, the piling up of
positions is visible in the 17800 put strike, followed by
17600 PE. While on the higher end, the 18000-18100 call
strikes have a decent piling in the OI concentration,
indicating an immediate resistance. Meanwhile, the
stronger hands have contracted their ‘Long Short
Ratio’, which plunged to 24% from 28%. Considering the
recent price action, some tentativeness could be seen
at the higher levels. However, the undertone remains
in favor of the bulls, but aggressive bets should be
avoided for the time being.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by
0.15%. and Bank Nifty futures open interest has
decreased by 6.17% as the market closed at 17877.40.
The Nifty Sep future closed with a premium of 14.40
point against a premium of 16.65 point in the last
trading session. The Oct series closed at a premium
of 71.30 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 18.27 to 18.39. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.20 to 0.95.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are MRF, APOLLOTYRE, ADANIENT, PVR
and DELTACORP.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IDEA 81.55
RBLBANK 72.75
IBULHSGFIN 72.61
ZEEL 63.97
HINDCOPPER 62.79
Nifty Vs OI
17300
17400
17500
17600
17700
17800
17900
18000
18100
18200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
8/30 9/2 9/6 9/8 9/12 9/14
Openinterest Nifty
OI
Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BEL 85408800 178.13 111.10 -1.36
PVR 4684977 58.40 1845.35 -4.15
APOLLOTYRE 15179500 15.78 299.65 6.72
MGL 3040000 12.86 895.55 2.76
AMBUJACEM 75184200 10.96 538.75 2.84
MRF 69010 10.22 92861.80 8.08
GRANULES 10676000 9.32 318.20 3.85
INFY 47070300 9.01 1432.80 -2.68
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BANDHANBNK 27876600 -10.35 304.60 -0.63
DELTACORP 17611100 -9.78 221.50 5.49
RBLBANK 66960000 -5.09 130.65 -2.17
INDIACEM 15077100 -4.59 270.30 2.64
ACC 5286000 -4.03 2747.75 -0.12
JKCEMENT 431250 -3.69 2914.00 0.71
SIEMENS 1575200 -3.65 3061.25 -1.31
TATACONSUM 8868600 -3.63 837.40 -0.49
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.95 0.95
BANKNIFTY 0.97 1.01
RELIANCE 0.50 0.43
ICICIBANK 0.83 0.64
INFY 0.36 0.48
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Technical & Derivatives Report
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Sep Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
7
,
877
.
40
FII Statistics for
September
1
5
, 2022
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
4179.41 5123.35 (943.94) 128181 12056.63 0.09
INDEX
OPTIONS
2853830.06 2850147.40 3682.66
1028197 95261.58 (26.89)
STOCK
FUTURES
12105.16 15557.46 (3452.30) 2160836 154325.47 1.05
STOCK
OPTIONS
11217.47 11018.48 198.99
200830 14737.03 5.48
Total 2881332.10
2881846.69
(514.59) 3518044
276380.71
(8.94)
Turnover on
September
1
5
, 2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index
Futures
461334 44532.65 -10.72
Index
Options
341701398
33785859.87
107.05
Stock
Futures
981314 73526.68 -6.73
Stock
Options
3969645 317757.93 -6.72
Total
39,69,645
317757.93 103.86
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17800 290.45
58.30
41.70
17858.30
Sell
17900 232.15
Buy
17800 290.45
107.90
92.10
17907.90
Sell
18000 182.55
Buy
17900 232.15
49.60 50.40 17949.60
Sell 18000 182.55
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 17800 200.15
37.85
62.15
17762.15
Sell
17700 162.30
Buy 17800 200.15
69.05
130.95
17730.95
Sell 17600 131.10
Buy
17700 162.30
31.20 68.80 17668.80
Sell 17600 131.10
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1 R2
ADANIPORTS
942
955
964
977
986
APOLLOHOSP 4,245 4,294
4,376 4,425
4,507
ASIANPAINT 3,345 3,370
3,414
3,440
3,484
AXISBANK 776 783
795
802
814
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,668 3,718
3,801
3,851
3,935
BAJFINANCE
7,266
7,326
7,430 7,490
7,593
BAJAJFINSV
1,735
1,753
1,789
1,807
1,843
BPCL
325
328
334
337
342
BHARTIARTL 777 781
786
790
795
BRITANNIA
3,665
3,693
3,741
3,769
3,817
CIPLA
1,007
1,020
1,042
1,055
1,076
COALINDIA
231
233
234
235
237
DIVISLAB 3,535 3,570
3,625
3,661
3,716
DRREDDY 4,088 4,128
4,182
4,222
4,276
EICHERMOT 3,497 3,560
3,616
3,678 3,735
GRASIM 1,761 1,785
1,800
1,824
1,840
HCLTECH
904
912
924
932
945
HDFCBANK
1,496
1,508
1,525
1,537
1,554
HDFCLIFE
555
561
572
578
589
HDFC
2,416
2,438
2,459
2,481
2,502
HEROMOTOCO
2,716
2,753
2,804
2,841
2,892
HINDALCO 413 419
429
435
445
HINDUNILVR
2,522
2,541
2,570 2,589
2,618
ICICIBANK
902
910
923
931
944
INDUSINDBK 1,165 1,181
1,200
1,216
1,235
INFY
1,400
1,416
1,446
1,462
1,492
ITC
331
332
335
336
339
JSW STEEL 677 683
691
697
704
KOTAKBANK
1,884
1,909
1,948
1,973
2,012
LT
1,936
1,947
1,966
1,977
1,996
M&M
1,275
1,286
1,300
1,311
1,325
MARUTI 8,893 9,052
9,188
9,347
9,483
NESTLEIND
18,802
18,905
19,081
19,185
19,361
NTPC
171
173
175
177
178
ONGC
131
132
133
134 135
POWERGRID
230
234
236
240
242
RELIANCE 2,528 2,545
2,574
2,592
2,621
SBILIFE
1,256
1,275
1,296
1,316
1,337
SHREECEM
23,227
23,570
24,053
24,396
24,879
SBIN
562
567
573
578
583
SUNPHARMA 861 868
878
885
895
TCS
3,076
3,090
3,114
3,128
3,152
TATACONSUM
821 829
839
847
856
TATAMOTORS
440
444
450
453
460
TATASTEEL 105 106
108
109
110
TECHM
1,049
1,066
1,095
1,112
1,141
TITAN 2,605 2,630
2,674
2,699
2,743
ULTRACEMCO 6,658 6,724
6,824 6,891
6,991
UPL
731
737
747
752
762
WIPRO
409
412
416 420
424
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Technical & Derivatives Report
SEPT 16, 2022
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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