May 16, 2022
www.angelone.in
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(33121)
The banking space plummeted over 4.25 percent in the last
week and has underperformed the benchmark index. Initially,
the Nifty Bank index was resilient to the fall, but in the previous
two trading sessions, it shed heavily over the weak macro
factors and the missing quarterly estimates of large cap banks.
On technical parameters, the index is in a secular downtrend as
it is placed below the lower Bollinger band on the daily time
frame. Even the 14-period RSI has almost entered the oversold
region, inferring the ongoing weakness. At present, the previous
swing low of 32000-32200 is expected to act as the immediate
supply zone for the index, while any breach below could be very
disruptive in the short-term period. In contrast, 34500-35000
hold the sturdy resistance, and a decisive closure above the
same could only trigger some reversal assurance in the banking
space.
Looking at the recent price action and placement on the daily
chart, the weakness is likely to persist in the near term.
Meanwhile, we firmly advocate avoiding any aggressive bets in
the index and look for opportunities with a stock-centric
approach.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 32200 Resistance 1 – 34000
Support 2 – 32000 Resistance 2 – 34300
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Weekly
Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (52794) / Nifty (15782)
On Friday, we started off significantly higher on the back of global
relief; but once again our market failed to sustain at higher levels
and eventually erased all gains in the latter half. With this, Nifty
once again lost nearly 4% on a weekly basis.
The global macro factors have weighed down heavily on financial
markets across the globe and we are certainly not spared with
it. The oversold market is in a denial mode to give small recovery,
in fact, Friday’s rebound got completely sold into towards the fag
end. This certainly does not augur well for the bulls. The recent
low of 15671 is not far from current levels now and the moment
we slide below it, it will create a panic kind of situation in the
market. Below this, 15350 - 15200 are the next levels to watch
out for. On the flipside, 16000 - 16200 has now become a stiff
hurdle. First sign of relief is possible only above these levels. Till
this time, one should avoid trading aggressively in the market.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 15600 Resistance 1 – 16000
Support 2 – 15350 Resistance 2 – 16100
If we take glance at the weekly time frame chart, we can see
sheet anchor in the form of ’89-EMA’ placed around 15600.
Historically, this moving average has proved it’s mettle and
has provided cushion to severe falls. It would be very
interesting to see how market behaves around it. Hence,
although the trend is strongly bearish at this moment, we
advise investors with a slightly broader time frame, should
start nibbling in quality propositions in a staggered manner.
Also, since the global factors are driving the markets
completely, traders should keep a close tab on all these
developments.
www.angelone.in
Technical & Derivatives Report
May 16, 2022
View
It was the second consecutive week of selling
pressure in our Indian equity market, the
benchmark index remained in the tight grip of bears
and any pullback move were being sold into to settle
the week tad below 15800 with a cut of almost four
percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment
to the tune of Rs. 3780 crores. Simultaneously, in
Index futures, they bought worth Rs. 2859 crores
with fall in open interest, indicating covering of
short positions.
Surprising, despite decent sell-off we could hardly
see fresh shorts in Nifty, the correction was mainly
due to long unwinding. However, we observed few
shorts in banking index, but the quantum wasn’t
significant considering the price. Stronger hand
continued to curb liquidity from equity market but
preferred covering their shorts in index futures
segment on Friday. On options front, hardly any
build-up was seen in both call and put option;
however, some unwinding was seen in 15900 strike.
At this point in time, market has an immediate
support 15600; whereas, sustainable pullback move
beyond the resistance of 16100-16200 shall be a
positive development. Traders are advised staying
light as volatility is likely to stay on the higher side.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.86%.
and BANK Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
3.85% as the market closed at 16782.15.
The Nifty May future closed with a premium of 4.45 point
against a premium of 0.50 point in the last trading
session. The June series closed at a premium of 3.85
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 25.08 to 23.48. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 0.63
to 0.73.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are SYNGENE, RECLTD, ESCORTS, CUB and
BSOFT.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
MRF 31.89
HONAUT 39.10
IGL 41.09
GNFC 64.99
TATAMOTORS 58.85
Nifty Vs OI
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
4-25 4-27 4-29 5-4 5-6 5-10 5-12
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GNFC 5913700 37.97 618.75 -9.77
HONAUT 10260 33.59 34331.60 -7.91
SBIN 74521500 15.16 444.65 -4.59
NTPC 81766500 14.60 144.15 -3.03
INDUSTOWER 17460800 14.07 182.85 -4.24
TATACONSUM 8034300 10.32 737.60 -0.03
ALKEM 333800 9.37 2905.60 -1.70
ABFRL 10992800 9.11 264.20 4.72
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IGL 13822875 -17.42 372.65 7.51
INTELLECT 1398750 -11.57 571.70 -1.48
APOLLOTYRE 12189000 -7.81 200.65 1.92
COFORGE 679700 -7.16 3743.25 2.31
CHAMBLFERT 1969500 -7.08 391.30 -4.98
CANFINHOME 3813225 -6.93 495.70 4.92
OFSS 295800 -5.93 3230.70 -3.02
APLLTD 1336300 -5.77 741.55 1.64
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.63 0.82
BANKNIFTY 0.61 0.89
RELIANCE 0.27 0.38
ICICIBANK 0.44 0.75
INFY 0.35 0.48
www.angelone.in
Technical & Derivatives Report
May 16, 2022
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot = 15
782.15
FII Statistics for
May
1
3
, 2022
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
6364.20 3504.76 2859.44
170352 13653.00 (9.51)
INDEX
OPTIONS
559888.50 561086.33 (1197.83) 1664270 132545.97 (2.10)
STOCK
FUTURES
19652.05 19119.02 533.03
2314209 138918.55 1.67
STOCK
OPTIONS
10542.64 10847.95 (305.31) 152981 9491.01 10.45
Total
596447.39
594558.06
1889.33
4301812
294608.53
(0.03)
Turnover on
May
13
, 2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index
Futures
579853 47209.15 -3.33
Index
Options
73970461 6141317.69
-70.01
Stock
Futures
1166305 71922.03 20.23
Stock
Options
3671417 244746.68 32.06
Total
36,71,417 244746.68 -68.68
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
15800 258.25
51.05
48.95
15851.05
Sell
15900 207.20
Buy
15800 258.25
93.60
106.40
15893.60
Sell
16000 164.65
Buy
15900 207.20
42.55 57.45 15942.55
Sell 16000 164.65
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
15800 271.00
43.70
56.30
15756.30
Sell
15700 227.30
Buy
15800 271.00
84.40
115.60
15715.60
Sell
15600 186.60
Buy
15700 227.30
40.70 59.30 15659.30
Sell
15600 186.60
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500
Call Put
www.angelone.in
Technical & Derivatives Report
May 16, 2022
`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 680 693
715 727 749
APOLLOHOSP 3,414 3,481
3,597 3,664 3,780
ASIANPAINT 2,991 3,027
3,072 3,108 3,153
AXISBANK 617 626
643 652 669
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,547 3,595
3,665 3,713 3,783
BAJFINANCE 5,339 5,428
5,588 5,677 5,837
BAJAJFINSV 12,146 12,377
12,806 13,037 13,466
BPCL 330 334
339 343 349
BHARTIARTL 668 679
696 707 724
BRITANNIA 3,179 3,229
3,275 3,325 3,371
CIPLA 914 925
932 942 950
COALINDIA 164 167
170 172 176
DIVISLAB 4,196 4,239
4,297 4,339 4,397
DRREDDY 3,843 3,884
3,931 3,972 4,020
EICHERMOT 2,353 2,393
2,438 2,478 2,523
GRASIM 1,434 1,455
1,486 1,507 1,538
HCLTECH 1,026 1,039
1,058 1,072 1,091
HDFCBANK 1,268 1,280
1,299 1,311 1,330
HDFCLIFE 537 544
555 562 573
HDFC 2,084 2,108
2,150 2,174 2,215
HEROMOTOCO 2,370 2,409
2,455 2,494 2,540
HINDALCO 366 377
396 407 425
HINDUNILVR 2,125 2,160
2,189 2,223 2,253
ICICIBANK 658 667
685 695 712
INDUSINDBK 853 863
878 888 904
INFY 1,479 1,492
1,511 1,523 1,542
ITC 252 255
258 261 264
JSW STEEL 568 584
611 627 653
KOTAKBANK 1,738 1,759
1,777 1,798 1,816
LT 1,464 1,499
1,537 1,572 1,610
M&M 853 871
888 906 923
MARUTI 6,890 6,996
7,168 7,274 7,446
NESTLEIND 16,166 16,284
16,423 16,542 16,681
NTPC 139 142
146 148 152
ONGC 148 151
156 158 163
POWERGRID 230 233
236 240 243
RELIANCE 2,377 2,402
2,440 2,465 2,503
SBILIFE 1,014 1,029
1,054 1,070 1,095
SHREECEM 22,002 22,284
22,682 22,964 23,362
SBIN 417 431
454 468 491
SUNPHARMA 848 865
877 894 906
TCS 3,355 3,385
3,412 3,442 3,470
TATACONSUM
718 728
745 754 771
TATAMOTORS 371 388
404 420 436
TATASTEEL 1,054 1,075
1,114 1,135 1,173
TECHM 1,171 1,187
1,211 1,227 1,250
TITAN 2,003 2,047
2,101 2,145 2,198
ULTRACEMCO 6,061 6,129
6,211 6,279 6,361
UPL 760 771
783 794 806
WIPRO 459 464
472 476 484
www.angelone.in
Technical & Derivatives Report
May 16, 2022
*
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst
Technical & Derivatives
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
DISCLAIMER
Angel One Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and investment advisor with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel One
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration
number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for
accessing /dealing in securities Market.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment.
Angel or its associates or research analyst or his relative may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the securities of
the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. Neither Angel or
its associates nor Research Analysts or his relative has any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of research report.
Angel or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period
preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate
finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction
in the normal course of business. Angel or its associates did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies
mentioned in the report or third party in connection with the research report. Neither Angel nor its research analyst entity has been
engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate
the contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel One Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible
for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel One
Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make
any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
One Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel One Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information. Angel or its associates or Research Analyst or his relative might have financial interest
in the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.