October
1
3
, 2023
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4
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5
99
)
Following the timidity observed in global markets overnight, this
BANKNIFTY had a mild start to the day’s proceedings. Thereafter,
prices encountered resistance around the previous day’s high and
then went into a consolidation mode for the remainder of the trading
session. Eventually, with a minuscule trading activity, the index ended
at 44600, securing a gain of 0.18 percent for the day. Bank Nifty has
been underperforming the broader market, as indicated by the
formation of a Doji- Candlestick on Wednesday and yet another
yesterday with small wicks. This indicates indecisiveness amongst
participants around crucial levels. From a technical perspective,
although the index has broken above the falling trendline on its daily
chart, not much has changed. The index continues to face resistance
around the confluence zone of the 20 DEMA and the 50 DEMA. A break
above this confluence zone of 44750, is likely to generate more
participation and buying interest in the index. However, we continue
to remain skeptical on this possibility and would refrain from pre-
empting any moves. As far as support and resistance levels are
concerned, there is a sturdy wall placed in the vicinity of 44650-44750,
whereas, short term support lies around the 44400 and 44000 zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 44200 Resistance 1 – 44800
Support 2 – 44000 Resistance 2 – 45000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
6
4
08
) / Nifty (
19
794
)
In the morning, despite the strong placement of Asian cues, our
markets had a lackluster start. As the day progressed, it became quite
uneventful, with the benchmark index trading in an extremely narrow
range of less than 50 points. Eventually, the session concluded with a
minor loss of 0.09%, a tad below the 19800 mark.
During the last two sessions, the Nifty index experienced a significant
upward movement. However, as prices approached a critical juncture,
uncertainty crept in during the weekly expiry session. The upmove
during the week has helped Nifty to recover more than 50% of its
decline seen from the recent high of 20222. Yet, a substantial resistance
level around the 61.8% retracement point, coinciding with a bearish
gap at 19880, became apparent and Bulls need to convincingly surpass
this key level to resume the uptrend toward all-time high levels.
Additionally, the psychological barrier of 20000 could also pose an
immediate challenge. On the hourly charts, after two consolidation
sessions, a defined range seems to be forming, with support around the
19750 mark. If this zone, which also aligns with a bullish gap between
19750 and 19720, is breached, we might anticipate a continuation of
the downward movement, heading back towards the 19650 – 19600
and below levels. Traders should closely monitor these levels and
adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
The Nifty IT index came under pressure following the results of TCS
and in anticipation of the results of other major heavyweights that
are lined up. Going ahead, trading opportunities may emerge on
both sides of the trend across various sectors as the results season
kicks in. Traders can focus on such opportunities for
outperformance, but it's advisable to be selective and exercise
caution with aggressive overnight positions due to prevailing global
uncertainties.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19750 Resistance 1 – 19880
Support 2 – 19650 Resistance 2 – 20000
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The Indian equity market witnessed yet another
session of choppy trade with index concluding with a
minor cut tad below 19800.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1863 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 253 cr in Index futures with a decline in
open interest, indicating short covering for third
consecutive session.
On the derivatives front, the overall open interest
activity in key indices remained muted. FIIs
continued with a selling streak in equities but
preferred covering bearish bets in the index futures
segment for the third straight session. For the
coming festive weekly series, 19800 put and 20000
call strikes are attracting trader’s attention. At this
point in time, it’s advisable avoiding any aggressive
bets until the global uncertainty subsides.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.14%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
2.80% as the market closed at 19794.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of
49.50 points against 38.75 points in the last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
171.20 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 10.99 to 10.60. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.22 to 1.05.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are MOTHERSON, CROMPTON, CUB, BEL
and BIOCON.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BOSCHLTD 27.14
GAIL 31.90
NMDC 40.88
PVRINOX 35.62
IGL 33.81
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
9-25 9-27 9-29 10-5 10-9 10-12
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
DELTACORP 16038400 33.15 141.20 -1.08
TCS 12664400 15.37 3542.55 -2.08
INFY 25207600 14.96 1465.50 -1.51
BOSCHLTD 126650 13.95 20455.35 4.00
MARUTI 2907200 13.63 10580.85 1.65
ICICIPRULI 10140000 13.38 524.85 0.00
SUNTV 10132500 11.05 640.15 2.58
NATIONALUM 68370000 10.22 99.75 4.21
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BSOFT 17600 -8.03 543.75 0.51
METROPOLIS 1600400 -6.91 1506.70 3.41
MCX 2360800 -5.81 2099.90 -2.20
JUBLFOOD 22015000 -4.75 543.25 2.51
NMDC 112878000 -4.42 159.00 5.64
ABB 1190500 -4.28 4216.05 0.75
MFSL 8247200 -4.00 920.30 1.42
HINDCOPPER 36967500 -3.86 157.40 2.04
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.05 1.02
BANKNIFTY 0.94 0.97
RELIANCE 0.58 0.36
ICICIBANK 0.56 0.47
INFY 0.76 1.00
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19
794
FII Statistics for
October
1
2
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2049.15 1796.46 252.69
164823 13708.00 (3.96)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1305255.28 1335206.36 (29951.08) 2530674 207131.32 (9.98)
STOCK
FUTURES
12143.06 13206.88 (1063.82) 2409839 191083.66 1.08
STOCK
OPTIONS
20890.56 21362.50 (471.94) 211247 17070.64 6.46
Total
1340338.05
1371572.20
(31234.15) 5316583
428993.62
(4.47)
Turnover on
October
1
2
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
255207 20470.16
-12.33
Index Options
643526091
50590.75
33.51
Stock Futures
673337 56255.98
0.00
Stock Options
3205371 3949.99 -11.35
Total
32,05,371 3949.99 7.64
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800
178.05 54.10
45.90
19854.10
Sell
19900
123.95
Buy
19800 178.05 95.90
104.10
19895.90
Sell
20000 82.15
Buy
19900
123.95 41.80 58.20 19941.80
Sell
20000 82.15
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800 132.30
35.80
64.20
19764.20
Sell 19700 96.50
Buy 19800 132.30
62.50
137.50
19737.50
Sell
19600 69.80
Buy
19700 96.50
26.70 73.30 19673.30
Sell 19600 69.80
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,475 2,491 2,506 2,522 2,537
ADANIPORTS 806 811 817 821 828
APOLLOHOSP 4,751 4,872 4,993 5,115 5,235
ASIANPAINT 3,127 3,143 3,166 3,182 3,204
AXISBANK 1,005 1,012 1,021 1,028 1,038
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,003 5,055 5,103 5,155 5,203
BAJFINANCE 7,924 7,969 8,048 8,093 8,172
BAJAJFINSV 1,613 1,624 1,634 1,644 1,654
BPCL 341 345 348 351 354
BHARTIARTL 942 946 951 956 961
BRITANNIA 4,501 4,531 4,561 4,591 4,622
CIPLA 1,132 1,145 1,166 1,179 1,199
COALINDIA 299 303 306 310 313
DIVISLAB 3,691 3,723 3,761 3,793 3,831
DRREDDY 5,474 5,502 5,543 5,571 5,612
EICHERMOT 3,443 3,469 3,502 3,527 3,560
GRASIM 1,942 1,972 1,997 2,027 2,052
HCLTECH 1,196 1,210 1,229 1,243 1,263
HDFCBANK 1,524 1,537 1,544 1,557 1,565
HDFCLIFE 616 620 623 628 631
HEROMOTOCO 3,028 3,058 3,095 3,125 3,162
HINDALCO 476 480 487 491 498
HINDUNILVR 2,526 2,542 2,555 2,570 2,583
ICICIBANK 943 948 954 960 966
INDUSINDBK 1,407 1,416 1,430 1,439 1,453
INFY 1,422 1,444 1,474 1,496 1,526
ITC 443 447 450 453 456
JSW STEEL 774 779 784 789 795
KOTAKBANK 1,752 1,758 1,767 1,773 1,783
LT 3,047 3,064 3,085 3,102 3,123
LTIMINDTREE 5,055 5,105 5,187 5,236 5,318
M&M 1,550 1,558 1,564 1,573 1,579
MARUTI 10,338 10,459 10,542 10,664 10,746
NESTLEIND 22,774 22,925 23,112 23,263 23,450
NTPC 237 239 241 243 245
ONGC 182 183 184 185 186
POWERGRID 195 198 200 203 205
RELIANCE 2,328 2,339 2,349 2,360 2,370
SBILIFE 1,294 1,304 1,311 1,320 1,327
SBIN 580 583 588 591 596
SUNPHARMA 1,117 1,124 1,128 1,135 1,139
TCS 3,506 3,524 3,556 3,575 3,607
TATACONSUM
879 886 890 897 901
TATAMOTORS 632 635 637 640 643
TATASTEEL 124 125 126 127 128
TECHM 1,164 1,181 1,207 1,224 1,249
TITAN 3,248 3,267 3,281 3,299 3,313
ULTRACEMCO 8,263 8,308 8,346 8,391 8,429
UPL 614 617 623 627 633
WIPRO 411 414 418 421 425
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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