May 13, 2022
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Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(33532)
Wednesday’s tail end recovery from key levels was an
encouraging sign but there is no respite in global markets. They
continue to sink and hence, yesterday morning, the SGX Nifty
indicated a gap down opening of more than 200 points on Nifty.
In line with this, the banking index too started off lower and then
complete capitulation was observed in so many banking
counters. The selling momentum aggravated as the day
progressed to conclude the day with massive cut over 1000
points in BANKNIFTY i.e. 3.35% from Wedenesday’s close.
Overall global weakness has poured in complete water on
Wednesday’s promise the banking stocks had left us with. But
not to surprise, this is the perfect characteristic of a downtrend.
Both Nifty and BANKNIFTY have now approached their critical
levels, so it would be interesting to see whether the oversold
market decides to rebound first or continue to be with the recent
trend. As far as levels are concerned, 34000 – 34500 has now
become a sturdy wall; whereas a sustainable move below 33200
– 33000 would lead to some panic kind of situation in this space.
One should avoid trading aggressively on both sides; because
we tend to see lot of whipsaws in such situations.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 33200 Resistance 1 – 34000
Support 2 – 33000 Resistance 2 – 34500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (52930) / Nifty (15808)
The Indian equity market tumbled, tracking the global bourses,
wherein the benchmark index Nifty50 plunged below the
psychological mark of 16000 from the start of the session. The
weakened macro factors have dampened the overall sentiments
as we witness the relentless selling pressure in the equities. The
index concluded the day in red with another cut of over 2.22
percent to settle at the 15808 level on the weekly expiry.
The previous swing low of 15670 is not far away, and it would be
a matter of time to retest the same. Though the market
subsidized in the oversold region for quite some time, a further
correction could be disruptive in the coming period. For the time
being, any breach below the 15670 odd zone would bring the
possibility for the index to shed another 200-300 odd points in
the near period. On the higher end, the 16000-16050 zone is
expected to act as immediate resistance, while the strength only
could be seen above the 16500-16650 zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 15670 Resistance 1 – 16000
Support 2 – 15500 Resistance 2 – 16050
The ongoing rampage is due to the global macro factors,
hence any improvement from the overseas market should act
as a catalyst for the bulls. Technically, the bearish formation
would only get discarded above the mentioned resistance
zone. Until that time, one should remain cautious and keep
close track of global and domestic developments. Also,
traders are advised to avoid aggressive bets and look for
stock-specific action, while investors could now seize this
opportunity by initiating accumulation in good blue-chip
companies but in a staggered manner.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 13, 2022
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Once again global factors led gap down opening in
our market. We began the day around 16000 mark
and observed follow-up selling right from the word
go to almost touch 15700 with no respite during the
entire day. Finally, we concluded the day with a cut
of over two percent to previous close.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment
to the tune of Rs. 5256 crores. Simultaneously, in
Index futures, they sold worth Rs. 1361 crores
with rise in open interest, indicating continuation
of short formation.
In F&O space, we saw addition of few shorts in Nifty
and long unwinding in banking index. Stronger
hands continue curb liquidity in Indian equity market
and also added bearish bets in index and stock
futures segment. In index options front, we saw
build-up in 15800-16000 put strikes. On the other
side, 15800-16200 call strikes added fresh build-up
in coming weekly series. The Fear index surged 10%
seeing the selling pressure, this is not a healthy
sign for Bulls. Despite, decent fall in our market we
haven’t seen any relevant selling post Monday’s
session and we certainly feel market is a bit
oversold. Hence, we would advocate avoiding any
bearish bets and buying quality stock for short to
medium term.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.92%.
and BANK Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
2.35% as the market closed at 16810.25.
The Nifty May future closed with a premium of 0.50 point
against a premium of 10.85 point in the last trading
session. The June series closed at a premium of 6.20
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.80 to 25.08. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 0.69
to 0.63.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are IBULHSGFIN, IDEA, GSPL,
HINDCOPPER and ADANIPORTS.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
*D.V. File dated 11-05-2022 not updated on NSE Website during the
time of report publishing
Nifty Vs OI
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
4-22 4-26 4-28 5-2 5-5 5-9 5-11
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PNB 332832000 15.33 28.60 -13.83
LTTS 1010200 12.57 3588.05 -3.65
BAJAJ-AUTO 3178750 9.34 3585.00 -0.76
AMBUJACEM 46180200 8.94 373.55 3.27
OFSS 314450 8.59 3500.15 -1.08
SIEMENS 1598300 7.37 2275.90 -1.59
NAVINFLUOR 418950 7.20 3887.95 -1.90
ABFRL 10075000 5.47 252.20 -2.51
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IBULHSGFIN 42682100 -11.02 118.70 8.33
VOLTAS 3692000 -9.38 949.40 -2.57
ABB 349250 -6.74 2233.50 -1.51
POLYCAB 606000 -6.26 2431.55 -0.23
BSOFT 3459300 -6.07 363.50 -0.14
DIXON 889250 -5.99 3401.10 -3.36
ASHOKLEY 30649500 -5.86 117.45 0.77
GSPL 2342600 -5.81 259.55 -0.99
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.63 0.82
BANKNIFTY 0.61 0.89
RELIANCE 0.27 0.38
ICICIBANK 0.44 0.75
INFY 0.35 0.48
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 13, 2022
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
15810.
25
FII Statistics for
May
1
2
, 2022
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
5037.41 6398.38 (1360.97) 188251 15160.28 1.53
INDEX
OPTIONS
1534649.10 1524741.17 9907.93
1699953 135387.83 (7.21)
STOCK
FUTURES
15419.24 16693.62 (1274.38) 2276265 136869.67 1.76
STOCK
OPTIONS
7737.21 7458.86 278.35
138513 8629.80 5.21
Total
1562842.96
1555292.03
7550.93
4302982
296047.58
(1.89)
Turnover on
May
12
, 2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index
Futures
598834 48837.74 6.16
Index
Options
247307328 20477747.31
77.81
Stock
Futures
987869 59821.31 -6.30
Stock
Options
2791143 185331.51 -9.49
Total
27,91,143 185331.51 75.57
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
15800 291.65
56.35
43.65
15856.35
Sell
15900 235.30
Buy
15800 291.65
100.95
99.05
15900.95
Sell
16000 190.70
Buy
15900 235.30
44.60 55.40 15944.60
Sell 16000 190.70
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
15800 283.25
40.15
59.85
15759.85
Sell
15700 243.10
Buy
15800 283.25
77.80
122.20
15722.20
Sell
15600 205.45
Buy
15700 243.10
37.65 62.35 15662.35
Sell
15600 205.45
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 13, 2022
`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 672 693
726 746 780
APOLLOHOSP 3,482 3,532
3,591 3,640 3,699
ASIANPAINT 2,945 2,993
3,035 3,083 3,125
AXISBANK 631 640
654 663 677
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,478 3,531
3,593 3,646 3,708
BAJFINANCE 5,363 5,478
5,621 5,737 5,880
BAJAJFINSV 12,438 12,644
12,957 13,163 13,476
BPCL 331 335
341 346 351
BHARTIARTL 688 697
710 718 731
BRITANNIA 3,122 3,169
3,205 3,252 3,288
CIPLA 903 912
924 933 946
COALINDIA 162 164
167 170 173
DIVISLAB 4,068 4,150
4,223 4,306 4,379
DRREDDY 3,749 3,815
3,855 3,921 3,962
EICHERMOT 2,304 2,344
2,373 2,413 2,441
GRASIM 1,426 1,456
1,493 1,523 1,560
HCLTECH 1,031 1,045
1,058 1,072 1,085
HDFCBANK 1,274 1,288
1,308 1,322 1,341
HDFCLIFE 532 539
552 560 572
HDFC 2,105 2,128
2,166 2,189 2,227
HEROMOTOCO 2,322 2,362
2,410 2,450 2,498
HINDALCO 380 393
407 420 435
HINDUNILVR 2,082 2,110
2,138 2,166 2,193
ICICIBANK 683 689
700 707 717
INDUSINDBK 820 845
881 906 941
INFY 1,490 1,500
1,514 1,523 1,537
ITC 246 249
253 256 260
JSW STEEL 601 613
632 644 664
KOTAKBANK 1,725 1,743
1,775 1,793 1,824
LT 1,490 1,508
1,531 1,550 1,573
M&M 834 850
869 885 905
MARUTI 7,150 7,202
7,263 7,315 7,376
NESTLEIND 15,919 16,070
16,277 16,427 16,635
NTPC 145 147
150 152 155
ONGC 150 153
157 160 164
POWERGRID 227 231
237 241 246
RELIANCE 2,337 2,368
2,401 2,433 2,466
SBILIFE 1,030 1,045
1,064 1,079 1,097
SHREECEM 21,966 22,297
22,840 23,170 23,713
SBIN 447 455
464 472 481
SUNPHARMA 826 838
847 859 868
TCS 3,303 3,356
3,403 3,456 3,502
TATACONSUM
718 728
738 748 758
TATAMOTORS 356 364
374 383 393
TATASTEEL 1,068 1,093
1,128 1,152 1,187
TECHM 1,178 1,196
1,214 1,231 1,250
TITAN 1,994 2,021
2,063 2,090 2,131
ULTRACEMCO 5,965 6,075
6,188 6,298 6,410
UPL 733 749
769 785 805
WIPRO 457 465
471 479 485
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 13, 2022
*
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst
–
Technical & Derivatives
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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