October
1
1
, 2023
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8
4
4360
)
The Bank Nifty index had a splendid start with a gap-up opening,
tracking the favorable global sentiments. Post the positive start, the
index initially hesitated near the 44100 zone, but by the latter half, a
strong buying traction levitated it towards the 44500-sub zone.
Eventually, amidst the sustainable buying traction, the index
concluded the day around the 44360 zone, procuring just over a
percent. The index decisively recouped the lost grounds from the
previous session with the robust buying emergence, showcasing the
resilience of the bulls while favorable sentiments. Technically, the
index still hovers in a narrow range, but a further relief on the global
front could provide some momentum back. As far as levels are
concerned, 44000-43800 is likely to act as a support zone and an
authoritative breakthrough could only disrupt the near-term view. On
the higher end, 44500 withholds the primary resistance, followed by
44800 in the comparable period. We need to stay cautious and avoid
aggressive bets until the uncertainty cools down.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 44000 Resistance 1 – 44500
Support 2 – 43800 Resistance 2 – 44800
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
6079
) /
Nifty (
19
690
)
The benchmark index Nifty started the session on a positive note, and
as the day progressed, prices continued to rise steadily throughout the
trading session. Nifty successfully recouped the losses experienced on
Monday and concluded with a gain of 0.91%, ending a tad below the
19700 mark.
Following a weak session on Monday, there was a noticeable
improvement in the global market, and our domestic markets also
reaped the benefits as a broad-based rally was witnessed in yesterday’s
session. When observing the intraday charts, it is visible that the index
has established a pattern of higher highs and higher lows and has
closed above the 20-day EMA. This configuration suggests that
momentum is favoring the bulls once again. However, when
considering the broader trend, uncertainty remains, largely depending
on global developments. It is advisable to avoid taking aggressive
overnight positions and instead focus on intraday momentum, given
that market sentiment was bearish on Monday but turned bullish
yesterday. As highlighted above, Monday's low of 19480 appears to be
a higher low when observing the hourly charts. Bullish traders may view
any decline toward this level as a buying opportunity, but a breach
below it could indicate a return to the downside, targeting levels
around 19300. Before that, 19600 can also be considered as immediate
support. On the contrary, it is essential not to become overly
complacent, and traders should consider booking profits at regular
intervals due to ongoing global uncertainties. In this context, the range
of 19800 to 19850 is regarded as immediate resistance.
Traders should closely monitor these levels and take a cautious
approach, proceeding step by step. Additionally, with the onset of
the earnings season, investors can explore a thematic approach, as
numerous individual stocks have displayed noteworthy price
movements. However, one must exercise selectivity when adopting
this approach.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19600 Resistance 1 – 19800
Support 2 – 19480 Resistance 2 – 19850
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View
The Indian equity market had a cheerful start and
witnessed a follow-up buying throughout the day to
reclaim 19700. Eventually, the index concluded the
day with gains of almost a percent to the previous
close.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1005 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 303 cr in Index futures with a decline in
open interest, indicating short covering.
On the derivatives front, we hardly saw any relevant
change in Nifty, the banking index witnessed a
decent short covering yesterday. FIIs continued with
a selling streak in equities but preferred covering
bearish bets in the index futures segment. We
observed massive writing in 19600-19700 put strikes.
On the flip side, call writers ran for shelter seeing a
smart recovery. At this point in time, traders should
use dips to add longs and book timely profit as the
market may continue to remain volatile due to
geopolitical concerns.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.01%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
9.24% as the market closed at 19689.85.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 26.8
points against 25 points in the last trading session. The
November series closed at a premium of 143.30 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 11.40 to 11.27. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.04 to 1.31.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are MOTHERSON, CROMPTON, CUB, BEL
and BIOCON.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CUB 42.02
COALINDIA 32.67
ESCORTS 37.44
GODREJPROP 41.26
NMDC 40.40
Nifty Vs OI
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
20400
20600
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
9-18 9-21 9-26 9-28 10-3 10-6
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BSOFT 9558000 17.16 539.10 4.60
CHAMBLFERT 14662300 13.92 284.20 4.12
HINDALCO 25648000 13.28 480.65 2.33
DALBHARAT 2034000 11.09 2259.90 1.67
ESCORTS 2195875 10.38 3393.50 6.17
ICICIPRULI 7314000 9.57 540.15 -0.25
DEEPAKNTR 2474700 8.16 2065.55 0.04
BHARTIARTL 38586150 7.65 948.35 2.40
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CUB 17600 -10.77 134.75 7.26
MCX 2879600 -9.90 2099.75 1.19
L&TFH 76139568 -6.16 133.70 1.90
ABB 1265000 -6.04 4192.65 2.44
KOTAKBANK 32733200 -5.91 1756.10 2.22
ULTRACEMCO 1644700 -5.32 8158.25 0.47
ALKEM 794000 -4.82 3585.20 1.11
BHEL 107446500 -4.51 131.20 3.78
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.31 0.90
BANKNIFTY 1.11 0.88
RELIANCE 0.58 0.35
ICICIBANK 0.58 0.46
INFY 0.60 0.48
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Oct Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
19
689.85
FII Statistics for
October
10
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2821.47 2518.21 303.26
179900 15048.34 (4.04)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1434657.52 1438284.43 (3626.91) 3346429 273264.96 1.54
STOCK
FUTURES
14200.82 9857.42 4343.40
2380005 188006.62 (1.04)
STOCK
OPTIONS
19428.46 19349.21 79.25
189284 15388.10 5.34
Total
1471108.27
1470009.27
1099.00
6095618
491708.02
0.46
Turnover on
October
10
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
253639 20474.86
-12.31
Index Options
303253514
45019.98
18.81
Stock Futures
673337 56255.98
0.00
Stock Options
3205371 3949.99 -11.35
Total
32,05,371 3949.99 3.07
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700
196.65 54.85
45.15
19754.85
Sell
19800
141.80
Buy
19700 196.65 98.55
101.45
19798.55
Sell
19900 98.10
Buy
19800
141.80 43.70 56.30 19843.70
Sell
19900 98.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700 159.75
37.05
62.95
19662.95
Sell 19600 122.70
Buy 19700 159.75
65.45
134.55
19634.55
Sell
19500 94.30
Buy
19600 122.70
28.40 71.60 19571.60
Sell 19500 94.30
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,411 2,455 2,486 2,530 2,561
ADANIPORTS 791 805 815 829 838
APOLLOHOSP 5,010 5,038 5,061 5,090 5,113
ASIANPAINT 3,127 3,139 3,152 3,164 3,177
AXISBANK 989 1,001 1,008 1,019 1,026
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,973 5,005 5,035 5,067 5,096
BAJFINANCE 7,966 8,025 8,080 8,139 8,194
BAJAJFINSV 1,604 1,619 1,631 1,646 1,658
BPCL 337 339 341 342 344
BHARTIARTL 908 928 941 961 974
BRITANNIA 4,486 4,508 4,525 4,547 4,564
CIPLA 1,143 1,149 1,156 1,162 1,169
COALINDIA 282 293 298 309 314
DIVISLAB 3,668 3,691 3,708 3,731 3,748
DRREDDY 5,406 5,442 5,465 5,501 5,524
EICHERMOT 3,436 3,447 3,461 3,472 3,486
GRASIM 1,873 1,896 1,909 1,932 1,945
HCLTECH 1,242 1,252 1,258 1,268 1,275
HDFCBANK 1,509 1,517 1,523 1,531 1,537
HDFCLIFE 611 616 620 626 630
HEROMOTOCO 2,945 2,961 2,982 2,998 3,019
HINDALCO 460 470 477 488 495
HINDUNILVR 2,496 2,506 2,513 2,524 2,531
ICICIBANK 933 942 950 959 967
INDUSINDBK 1,399 1,410 1,423 1,434 1,447
INFY 1,459 1,477 1,487 1,505 1,515
ITC 439 442 443 446 448
JSW STEEL 751 761 768 778 785
KOTAKBANK 1,700 1,728 1,748 1,776 1,797
LT 3,056 3,066 3,082 3,093 3,109
LTIMINDTREE 5,176 5,221 5,258 5,303 5,340
M&M 1,509 1,523 1,534 1,548 1,558
MARUTI 10,207 10,291 10,354 10,438 10,501
NESTLEIND 22,745 22,857 22,937 23,048 23,128
NTPC 232 234 236 237 239
ONGC 181 182 183 185 186
POWERGRID 195 196 197 199 200
RELIANCE 2,296 2,302 2,310 2,316 2,324
SBILIFE 1,265 1,284 1,298 1,317 1,331
SBIN 582 587 591 596 600
SUNPHARMA 1,115 1,121 1,126 1,131 1,136
TCS 3,579 3,604 3,626 3,651 3,673
TATACONSUM
877 883 888 894 898
TATAMOTORS 612 621 627 636 642
TATASTEEL 123 124 125 126 127
TECHM 1,206 1,217 1,224 1,235 1,243
TITAN 3,236 3,253 3,276 3,293 3,316
ULTRACEMCO 8,069 8,113 8,150 8,195 8,231
UPL 602 612 619 628 635
WIPRO 405 406 408 409 410
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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