Technical and Derivatives Reports - March 10, 2023

March 10, 2023

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Technical & Derivatives Report

Nifty Bank

Outlook (

)

Post Wednesday’s strong close, we began the weekly expiry

session above 41500 and saw follow-up buying to head towards

41650. However, like Monday’s session some tentativeness was

observed at higher levels which got aggravated as we progressed

to drag the banking index towards 41200. Eventually, we

concluded the day with a cut of 0.77% to the previous day’s close.

If we look back in the February series, specifically in the midst, the

banking index spent almost two weeks in the vicinity of 41000-

42000 and now it’s the third week wherein the index is hovering

around the same zone. Considering the broader picture, we have

managed to conclude the session above the support zone

of 41000-41200 and above the rising trendline support mentioned

in the previous commentary. Hence, as long we manage to sustain

above key supports, we would use such dips to add longs in the

market. On the upside, considering the recent price action, 41600-

41700 remains a sturdy wall followed by 42000. Traders are

advised to keep a close tab on the above-mentioned levels and

avoid any positional bearish trades.

Key Levels

Support 1 – 41100 Resistance 1 – 41600

Support 2 – 41000 Resistance 2 – 42000

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart

Sensex (

59806

) / Nifty (

590

)

Our markets witnessed a marginally positive opening, however right

from the word go prices started to slide lower forming an open high

kind of scenario. During the midst, there was a mild bounce back

that was inferior to the Bank Nifty. Eventually, this bounce as well

got sold into as one more round of profit booking resulted in Nifty

ending below 17600 with a loss of around nine-tenths of a percent.

It was a disappointing session for the bulls as, despite some recent

positive developments, the markets are lacking sustenance at

higher levels. The culprit remains heavyweights, as one or

the another from them continues to comfort in the back seat;

yesterday the major draggers were Reliance and Auto counters.

Nifty has now given up initial weekly gains and is now placed at a

neutral juncture. Going ahead, 17500 followed by 200SMA placed

at 17430 would be considered sacrosanct support and we remain

hopeful that buying will re-emerge at lower levels. However, since

we are not seeing follow-up buying traders need to avoid undue risk

and need to be very fussy in their stock selection.

Key Levels

Support 1 – 17500 Resistance 1 – 17700

Support 2 – 17430 Resistance 2 – 17800

On the flip side, the 61.8% retracement level (17800) that we

have been highlighting since the last couple of sessions remains

a stiff resistance, and for the trend to technically turn into

positive need to close above it with some authority; before that

17700 should also be considered as immediate resistance. The

banking space remains a key ray of hope for the bulls as the bank

index continues to show resilience and has been well sustained

above the recent bullish breakout levels. Also, one needs to

keep a tab on global developments as some positive

developments there could trigger optimism back in our markets.

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Technical & Derivatives Report

March 10, 2023

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 Our market lacked sustenance at higher grounds and

slipped to pare down the overall weekly gains. The

benchmark index Nifty50 shed nearly a percent to

settle a tad below the 17600 level.

 FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to

the tune of Rs. 562 crores. Simultaneously, in Index

futures, they sold worth Rs. 2253 crores with an

increase in open interest, indicating short addition.

 Looking at the F&O data, we witnessed short

formation in both key indices on the weekly expiry

session. On the options front, the 17600 put strike

holds a significant OI concentration, followed by

17500 PE, indicating nearby support for Nifty. On the

higher end, the 17700-call strike has the maximum

OI concentration, indicating the immediate hurdle.

Meanwhile, the stronger hands have added shorts in

the system resulting in a plunge to ‘Long Short Ratio’

to 20% from 25%. Considering the recent price

action, we would advocate avoiding aggressive bets

in the index and being fussy with stock selection.

Comments

 The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 7.15%

and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by

1.64% as the market closed at 17589.60.

 The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 55.50

point against a premium of 40.15 point in the last

trading session. The April series closed at a premium of

160.15 point.

 The INDIA VIX increased from 12.45 to 12.72. At the

same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.26

to 0.85.

 Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high

cost of carry are M&M, SBILIFE, BALKRISIND, RELIANCE,

AND DIXON.

Historical Volatility

SCRIP HV

ADANIENT 94.54

IDEA 70.70

IBULHSGFIN 67.07

RBLBANK 63.66

ADANIPORTS 60.05

Nifty Vs OI

17200

17300

17400

17500

17600

17700

17800

17900

18000

18100

18200

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2/15 2/17 2/22 2/24 2/28 3/2 3/6 3/9

Openinterest Nifty

OI Gainers

SCRIP OI

CHG. (%)

PRICE

CHG. (%)

GNFC 9360000 13.62 558.40 -2.40

CROMPTON 6054000 10.30 300.45 -2.33

RBLBANK 28285000 8.54 159.65 -3.55

TECHM 12103200 7.89 1060.00 -1.73

MPHASIS 2229150 6.62 2104.90 -2.22

RELIANCE 38906750 6.12 2359.30 -2.16

CUB 12795000 5.27 140.25 -0.95

MUTHOOTFIN 7936500 5.11 943.80 -0.48

OI Losers

SCRIP OI

CHG. (%)

PRICE

CHG. (%)

BALRAMCHIN 17600 -9.25 396.75 -0.71

HONAUT 22515 -4.94 35844.30 0.30

ABCAPITAL 34338600 -4.79 156.65 -0.85

GUJGASLTD 5295000 -4.64 514.00 1.10

TRENT 3610000 -4.22 1335.00 -0.46

SHRIRAMFIN 3943200 -3.83 1290.40 1.43

TORNTPOWER 3378000 -3.64 533.35 0.43

ATUL 145500 -3.58 6953.65 -0.26

Put-Call Ratio

SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)

NIFTY 0.85 1.05

BANKNIFTY 0.88 1.02

RELIANCE 0.57 0.63

ICICIBANK 0.63 0.57

INFY 0.46 0.39

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Technical & Derivatives Report

March 10, 2023

Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.

Nifty Spot =

589

0900

Lot Size = 75

FII Statistics for

March 0

, 202

Detail Buy

Contracts

Open

Interest

Value

(in Cr.)

Sell

Net

CHANGE

INDEX

FUTURES

2545.71 4799.08 (2253.37) 174408 16103.79 11.23

INDEX

OPTIONS

2430814.53 2422159.78 8654.75

1733886 156741.64 (38.40)

STOCK

FUTURES

6791.68 9182.53 (2390.85) 2165261 144152.04 0.64

STOCK

OPTIONS

8805.64 8990.08 (184.44) 153058 10244.53 9.65

Total 2448957.56

2445131.47

3826.09

4226613

327242.00

(19.69)

Turnover

March

, 202

Instrument

No. of

Contracts

Turnover

( in Cr. )

Change

(%)

Index Futures

287272 27386.44

-14.94

Index Options

372884868

51869.90

12.01

Stock Futures

627837 41770.16

-7.86

Stock Options

2605038 3200.12 -13.20

Total

26,05,038 3200.12 -2.59

Bull-Call Spreads

Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP

Buy

17600 214.00

54.50

45.50

17654.50

Sell

17700 159.50

Buy

17600 214.00

98.35

101.65

17698.35

Sell

17800 115.65

Buy

17700 159.50

43.85 56.15 17743.85

Sell

17800 115.65

Bear-Put Spreads

Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP

Buy

17600 169.05

36.50

63.50

17563.50

Sell 17500 132.55

Buy 17600 169.05

65.70

134.30

17534.30

Sell

17400 103.35

Buy

17500 132.55

29.20 70.80 17470.80

Sell 17400 103.35

Nifty Put-Call Analysis

1000,000

2000,000

3000,000

4000,000

5000,000

6000,000

17000 17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300

Call Put

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Technical & Derivatives Report

March 10, 2023

Daily

Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents

Scrips

PIVOT

ADANIENT

1,812

1,883

1,976

2,046

2,139

ADANIPORTS 669 683

700

714

731

APOLLOHOSP

4,294

4,356

4,447

4,509

4,600

ASIANPAINT

2,819

2,836

2,854

2,872

2,890

AXISBANK 856 862

868

874

880

BAJAJ-AUTO

3,780

3,797

3,818

3,835

3,856

BAJFINANCE

5,794

5,848

5,944

5,998

6,094

BAJAJFINSV

1,332

1,342

1,361

1,371

1,389

BPCL 322 323

325

327

328

BHARTIARTL 755 764

780

789

804

BRITANNIA

4,231

4,261

4,306

4,336

4,380

CIPLA 865 874

885

893

905

COALINDIA 222 223

225

227

228

DIVISLAB

2,763

2,787

2,827

2,850

2,891

DRREDDY

4,330

4,356

4,397

4,422

4,464

EICHERMOT

3,092

3,119

3,170

3,197

3,247

GRASIM

1,575

1,588

1,599

1,612

1,622

HCLTECH

1,106

1,112

1,119

1,124

1,132

HDFCBANK

1,616

1,623

1,635

1,642

1,654

HDFCLIFE

486

489

493

495

499

HDFC

2,644

2,655

2,674

2,685

2,704

HEROMOTOCO

2,407

2,426

2,458

2,477

2,509

HINDALCO 401 405

412

416

422

HINDUNILVR

2,435

2,448

2,470

2,483

2,505

ICICIBANK 844 850

860

866

876

INDUSINDBK

1,151

1,161

1,172

1,181

1,192

INFY

1,461

1,471

1,484

1,494

1,508

ITC 381 384

389

392

397

JSW STEEL 662 671

682

691

701

KOTAKBANK

1,694

1,705

1,725

1,736

1,756

2,160

2,177

2,188

2,204

2,215

M&M

1,213

1,230

1,263

1,280

1,312

MARUTI

8,401

8,472

8,604

8,675

8,807

NESTLEIND

18,366

18,451

18,515

18,600

18,664

NTPC 176 178

180

182

184

ONGC 154 155

157

158

160

POWERGRID 222 224

227

229

232

RELIANCE

2,315

2,337

2,377

2,399

2,439

SBILIFE

1,065

1,081

1,108

1,124

1,151

SBIN 553 556

561

564

569

SUNPHARMA 941 947

953

959

965

TCS

3,297

3,317

3,351

3,371

3,405

TATACONSUM

699 704

713

719

728

TATAMOTORS 424 428

435

439

446

TATASTEEL 107 107

108

109

110

TECHM

1,041

1,050

1,067

1,076

1,093

TITAN

2,337

2,353

2,380

2,396

2,423

ULTRACEMCO

7,156

7,200

7,250

7,294

7,345

UPL 703 708

715

720

728

WIPRO 387 389

391

393

395

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Technical & Derivatives Report

March 10, 2023

Technical and Derivatives Team:

Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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