March 08, 2023
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Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty Bank
Outlook (
41
350
)
Following the strong closing on Friday, the week started on a
positive note and the momentum continued during the morning
session. As the day progressed, there was a lack of buying at higher
levels and profit booking in key heavyweights pulled the bank index
lower to erase a major part of morning gains. The Bank Index ended
the session with marginal gains of 0.24% tad above 41350.
On Monday, the bank index tested the key 50SMA levels however
since it had already rallied in the last few days there was a lack of
follow-up buying as the indicators were overbought. Also, the
traders preferred to book some profits ahead of the mid-week
holiday to avoid undue risk from global cues. Going ahead, since
we have already seen a trend line breakout, traders should
continue to use any dips as a buying opportunity. On the higher
side, we see a sturdy wall of resistance in the range of 41700 -
42000 that coincides with the 50SMA and Budget Day high, hence
we may see some consolidation before the next leg of up move.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 41100 Resistance 1 – 41700
Support 2 – 41000 Resistance 2 – 42000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
60224
) / Nifty (
1
7
711
)
We kickstarted the week on a strong note taking favorable global
cues into a consideration. In the initial hour, the move extended to
reach the 17800 mark. However, the traders chose to take some
money off the table at higher levels, which resulted in a gradual
decline throughout the remaining part of the session. Eventually,
the Nifty managed to hold nearly seven tenths of percent gains to
conclude tad above 17700.
Our markets started the session from where it left on Friday and this
time, we had support from our global peers. But it seems we had
already anticipated it in advance as we witnessed a stellar move
during previous session. On Monday, due to some overbought
condition mainly in the financial space, we didn’t have enough legs
to maintain the similar tempo. Technically speaking, we are not
surprised with this profit booking, because Monday’s high precisely
coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the recent down move.
However, by no means, we expect resumption of recent corrective
phase. This is merely a profit booking after a sharp recovery in last
two days and after reaching important levels. As a trader, such
declines would provide excellent opportunities to create fresh longs
as we expect Nifty to surpass 17800 sooner or later and head
towards the psychological mark of 18000. As far as supports are
concerned, 17600 – 17500 are to be seen as immediate levels.
Traders are advised to continue with an optimistic approach and
now should start focusing more on thematic movers. Apart from
this, the broader end of the spectrum has been sulking for a long
time now, has started showing early signs of revival. It’s better
to keep a close eye on this segment as well.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17670 Resistance 1 – 17800
Support 2 – 17600 Resistance 2 – 17880
The apt strategy would be to buy on dips and book profits at
higher levels as long the market consolidates within a range. As
far as support levels are concerned, 41100 - 41000 is seen as
immediate support.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2023
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Our market has started the truncated week on a
promising note, wherein the benchmark index re-
tested the 17800 but amid profit booking settled a
tad above the 17700 level, procuring 0.67 percent.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 721 crores. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they bought worth Rs. 1447 crores with a
decrease in open interest, indicating short covering.
Looking at the F&O data, we observed short covering in
both the key indices at the start of the week. On the
options front, piling up of positions is seen at 17700-
17600 put strikes indicating nearby support for Nifty. On
the higher end, the 17800-call strike has the maximum OI
concentration, followed by 18000 CE, indicating the
immediate hurdles. Meanwhile, the stronger hands have
covered their shorts in the system, resulting in a surge to
‘Long Short Ratio’ to 26% from 23%. Considering the
recent price action, the undertone remains upbeat,
wherein any intraday dip could be utilized to add long in
the index.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 6.77%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
1.55% as the market closed at 17711.45.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 63.50
point against a premium of 77.20 point in the last
trading session. The April series closed at a premium of
162.35 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 12.18 to 12.26. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.17
to 1.12.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are MGL, FSL, PFC, GAIL, AND
MANAPPURAM.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ADANIENT 94.76
IDEA 71.05
IBULHSGFIN 67.38
RBLBANK 63.79
ADANIPORTS 60.16
Nifty Vs OI
17200
17300
17400
17500
17600
17700
17800
17900
18000
18100
18200
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2/13 2/15 2/17 2/22 2/24 2/28 3/2 3/6
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MGL 3154400 51.36 985.95 8.75
GUJGASLTD 5390000 19.12 512.65 0.63
IGL 9981125 16.97 445.05 3.29
PFC 58608600 11.94 161.75 3.90
ONGC 42488600 9.98 158.20 2.41
CIPLA 14725100 9.61 880.90 0.19
NTPC 85653900 7.24 176.80 2.10
RECLTD 48344000 6.86 121.45 2.73
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CROMPTON 5182500 -7.05 316.05 1.02
WHIRLPOOL 856100 -6.82 1339.65 1.32
PVR 2303620 -6.35 1579.30 1.08
RBLBANK 24860000 -6.05 165.90 -0.66
BAJAJFINSV 9787000 -5.63 1380.80 1.68
BRITANNIA 1272600 -5.51 4319.85 -2.29
TORNTPOWER 3499500 -5.09 520.75 1.80
SBIN 75504000 -5.02 561.70 0.01
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.12 0.95
BANKNIFTY 1.00 0.92
RELIANCE 0.65 0.52
ICICIBANK 0.72 0.62
INFY 0.51 0.46
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2023
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
7
711
.
4
5
0900
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
March 0
6
, 202
3
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
4055.09 2608.45 1446.64
151174 14022.10 (9.17)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1429915.90 1430826.61 (910.71) 2254569 211291.50 (8.44)
STOCK
FUTURES
9054.94 9159.86 (104.92) 2135269 142952.90 (0.13)
STOCK
OPTIONS
9402.46 9190.92 211.54
128900 8677.11 5.36
Total 1452428.39
1451785.84
642.55
4669912
376943.61
(4.48)
Turnover
on
March
0
6
, 202
3
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
299503 28871.92
-33.49
Index Options
257570902 50029.28
8.57
Stock Futures
790755 50895.26
-31.00
Stock Options
3392758 5341.50 62.33
Total
33,92,758 5341.50 -18.86
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17700 225.95
55.95
44.05
17755.95
Sell
17800 170.00
Buy
17700 225.95
101.90
98.10
17801.90
Sell
17900 124.05
Buy
17800 170.00
45.95 54.05 17845.95
Sell
17900 124.05
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17700 154.75
34.60
65.40
17665.40
Sell 17600 120.15
Buy 17700 154.75
61.45
138.55
17638.55
Sell
17500 93.30
Buy
17600 120.15
26.85 73.15 17573.15
Sell 17500 93.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2023
`
Daily
Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIENT
1,711
1,847
1,991
2,127
2,271
ADANIPORTS 657 674
698
715
740
APOLLOHOSP
4,364
4,392
4,441
4,469
4,518
ASIANPAINT
2,806
2,835
2,860
2,889
2,913
AXISBANK 851 855
860
864
868
BAJAJ-AUTO
3,683
3,703
3,738
3,759
3,794
BAJFINANCE
6,083
6,109
6,146
6,172
6,209
BAJAJFINSV
1,337
1,359
1,379
1,401
1,421
BPCL 319 322
324
327
329
BHARTIARTL 758 763
769
773
780
BRITANNIA
4,220
4,270
4,330
4,379
4,439
CIPLA 862 871
879
888
895
COALINDIA 220 223
224
226
228
DIVISLAB
2,818
2,832
2,857
2,871
2,896
DRREDDY
4,395
4,417
4,438
4,460
4,481
EICHERMOT
3,119
3,143
3,156
3,179
3,193
GRASIM
1,587
1,593
1,602
1,608
1,617
HCLTECH
1,108
1,117
1,133
1,142
1,157
HDFCBANK
1,607
1,617
1,628
1,638
1,650
HDFCLIFE
484
487
492
495
500
HDFC
2,635
2,655
2,674
2,694
2,713
HEROMOTOCO
2,447
2,463
2,478
2,494
2,508
HINDALCO 409 412
417
420
425
HINDUNILVR
2,463
2,474
2,486
2,497
2,510
ICICIBANK 858 863
870
875
881
INDUSINDBK
1,102
1,112
1,126
1,135
1,149
INFY
1,480
1,494
1,507
1,521
1,534
ITC 381 385
389
392
396
JSW STEEL 667 670
677
681
688
KOTAKBANK
1,729
1,740
1,752
1,763
1,776
LT
2,110
2,126
2,155
2,171
2,200
M&M
1,258
1,264
1,274
1,280
1,290
MARUTI
8,556
8,594
8,628
8,666
8,701
NESTLEIND
18,369
18,442
18,498
18,571
18,627
NTPC 171 174
176
179
180
ONGC 151 155
157
161
163
POWERGRID 221 224
226
230
232
RELIANCE
2,387
2,398
2,411
2,422
2,436
SBILIFE
1,112
1,120
1,133
1,141
1,154
SBIN 554 558
563
567
572
SUNPHARMA 954 960
970
975
985
TCS
3,333
3,352
3,379
3,398
3,425
TATACONSUM
705 709
714
718
723
TATAMOTORS 426 433
437
444
449
TATASTEEL 103 105
106
107
109
TECHM
1,079
1,085
1,090
1,096
1,101
TITAN
2,374
2,389
2,407
2,422
2,441
ULTRACEMCO
7,151
7,176
7,216
7,240
7,280
UPL 703 707
713
717
722
WIPRO 390 392
394
396
399
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 08, 2023
*
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.c[email protected]gelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.kris[email protected]e.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
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