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8
4
3
619
)
The festive week commenced with an upward gap, consistent for the
previous three trading sessions. However, the index witnessed some
profit taking in the initial trade. The BANKNIFTY managed to stabilize
around key supports and resumed upward trajectory thereafter,
almost recouping the entire morning's losses. With smart buying
interest in the final hour of trade, the index settled a tad above 43600,
marking a gain of seven-tenths of a percent. The banking index has
formed a Doji candle for the fourth consecutive session now. In recent
times, the momentum has been somewhat lacking, as the index has
been trading within a tight range. Interestingly, yesterday we saw a
surge in momentum during the final hour of trading, leading to a close
near the day's high. Thus, it will be interesting to monitor whether we
observe a subsequent move beyond the 43800-44000 in the upcoming
sessions, which is a strong resistance zone.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
4
959
) / Nifty (
1
9
412
)
Over the weekend, there was a notable improvement in the global
markets, and our local markets took their cues from this, resulting in a
strong gap-up opening. Throughout most of the session, there was
limited price movement as prices fluctuated within a specific range.
However, during the final hour, a fresh round of strong buying
emerged, pushing prices to a close with a gain of 0.94%, ending a tad
above the 19400 mark.
November has been favorable for the bull's camp so far, with prices
experiencing a second consecutive bullish gap. The primary reason for
this optimism can be attributed to the positive global cues, which have
displayed a significant upward trend in recent sessions. Our markets
have also made a remarkable move by breaking through intermediate
key resistance levels and now position themselves comfortably above
major moving averages. Additionally, the positive crossover of the RSI
smoothened indicator around the oversold zone bodes well for the
bullish sentiment. However, we must remain vigilant as global
uncertainties persist, and any negative developments could lead to
sharper declines compared to the recent gradual upswings. During the
previous rebound observed last month, prices encountered strong
resistance around the 61.8% retracement level. The current upmove
also faces a significant resistance zone between 19460 and 19500,
corresponding to the 61.8% retracement level of the recent fall. This
zone serves as a pivotal point for the next phase of the upward
movement. A breakthrough beyond this range could trigger an
extension of the upward momentum, potentially reaching the
Descending Trendline resistance around 19600 and subsequently
targeting the previous high of 19850.
However, from a technical perspective, prices are still following a
pattern of lower highs and lower lows. As long as this pattern
persists, we should exercise caution and be selective in our approach
to long positions, taking one step at a time during these price
rebounds. On the flip side, the bullish gap left yesterday around
19300 is likely to act as immediate support. As the Diwali festival
approaches, many traders and investors often show renewed
interest in individual stocks, particularly midcap and smallcap stocks,
which can experience significant price movements. Traders may
consider focusing on such opportunities, but it's essential to remain
cautious and avoid complacency.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19300 Resistance 1 – 19480
Support 2 – 19270 Resistance 2 – 19530
On the downside, 43200-43000 should provide immediate support
in case of a decline. Considering the recent price action, we continue
to maintain a cautious stance on the market and it's better not to
get carried away by the ongoing move.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43200 Resistance 1 – 43800
Support 2 – 43000 Resistance 2 – 44000
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a strong day of
trade, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50 surged
nearly a percent to settle a tad above 19400 zone.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 549 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 1258 cr in Index futures with a decrease in
open interest, indicating short covering.
On the derivatives front, a mixed bag of trades was
seen in key indices. On the options front, a strong
piling of OI is seen at 19300-19400 put strikes,
suggesting an immediate in the support zone. On the
higher end, the 19500-call strike has the highest OI
concentration, indicating intermediate resistance.
FIIs further curtailed bearish bets in index futures
segments, resulting in a slight advancement of the
Long Short Ratio to 20% from 18%. Considering the
recent developments, our market seems to be
gaining traction, though one needs to maintain
caution and track global developments.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.13%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
2.75% as the market closed at 19411.75.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
74.75 points against a premium of 73 points in the last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 177.80 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 10.88 to 11.11. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 0.96
to 1.14.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are AARTIIND, JKCEMENT, METROPOLIS,
DEEPAKNTR and EXIDEIND.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ADANIENT 73.26
IDEA 66.42
IBULHSGFIN 62.64
DELTACORP 60.93
RBLBANK 54.93
Nifty Vs OI
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
10-20 10-25 10-27 10-31 11-2 11-6
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
JKCEMENT 869500 29.97 3403.00 8.43
BATAINDIA 1770000 24.37 1561.00 -1.34
BANKBARODA 136255275 14.77 195.60 -4.04
RAMCOCEM 3077850 14.66 1005.65 2.08
ONGC 35643300 12.26 193.30 1.77
PIDILITIND 2631750 8.36 2433.70 -0.90
BHARATFORG 9448500 8.15 1075.70 4.38
DEEPAKNTR 2540100 7.96 2138.40 6.07
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MUTHOOTFIN 17600 -6.62 1331.90 0.09
LALPATHLAB 914700 -6.44 2646.80 1.84
BAJFINANCE 4611375 -5.32 7561.95 1.91
MFSL 7372800 -4.68 905.25 1.37
CROMPTON 13689000 -4.63 283.15 -1.65
POLYCAB 3005300 -4.60 5138.90 1.65
MRF 53015 -4.56 107391.70 0.03
IGL 16110875 -4.55 401.15 0.31
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.14 0.87
BANKNIFTY 1.10 0.93
RELIANCE 0.60 0.59
ICICIBANK 0.75 0.51
INFY 0.49 0.49
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
411
.
75
FII Statistics for
November
0
6
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3107.06 1849.42 1257.64
244572 20088.16 (2.84)
INDEX
OPTIONS
936454.63 959174.50 (22719.87) 4171036 338741.40 12.22
STOCK
FUTURES
12436.86 11743.99 692.87
2547624 178550.90 (0.05)
STOCK
OPTIONS
14103.94 14057.71 46.23
195058 13802.83 4.73
Total
966102.49
986825.62
(20723.13) 7158290
551183.29
6.78
Turnover on
November
0
6
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
226969 18401.78
-0.26
Index Options
255854984
37199.20
17.16
Stock Futures
855462 60182.29
-6.37
Stock Options
3697056 3976.88 -10.17
Total
36,97,056 3976.88 0.72
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19300
299.70 65.95
34.05
19365.95
Sell
19400
233.75
Buy
19300 299.70 121.65
78.35
19421.65
Sell
19500 178.05
Buy
19400
233.75 55.70 44.30 19455.70
Sell
19500 178.05
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19500 189.80
44.25
55.75
19455.75
Sell 19400 145.55
Buy 19500 189.80
78.55
121.45
19421.45
Sell
19300 111.25
Buy
19400 145.55
34.30 65.70 19365.70
Sell 19300 111.25
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,219 2,233 2,246 2,260 2,273
ADANIPORTS 796 799 803 806 810
APOLLOHOSP 5,073 5,119 5,173 5,219 5,274
ASIANPAINT 2,966 2,997 3,016 3,048 3,066
AXISBANK 983 996 1,006 1,019 1,029
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,353 5,380 5,404 5,431 5,454
BAJFINANCE 7,396 7,479 7,526 7,608 7,655
BAJAJFINSV 1,531 1,548 1,557 1,574 1,583
BPCL 358 362 366 370 373
BHARTIARTL 926 933 937 943 947
BRITANNIA 4,517 4,570 4,599 4,652 4,681
CIPLA 1,186 1,195 1,206 1,215 1,226
COALINDIA 310 313 316 320 323
DIVISLAB 3,209 3,358 3,444 3,593 3,680
DRREDDY 5,252 5,295 5,326 5,369 5,400
EICHERMOT 3,391 3,451 3,497 3,557 3,603
GRASIM 1,877 1,898 1,917 1,938 1,958
HCLTECH 1,257 1,263 1,271 1,278 1,286
HDFCBANK 1,477 1,486 1,492 1,501 1,507
HDFCLIFE 616 619 623 626 629
HEROMOTOCO 3,066 3,117 3,146 3,196 3,226
HINDALCO 475 479 482 485 488
HINDUNILVR 2,475 2,486 2,502 2,513 2,529
ICICIBANK 933 939 944 950 954
INDUSINDBK 1,450 1,460 1,466 1,476 1,482
INFY 1,384 1,394 1,400 1,410 1,417
ITC 431 433 435 437 439
JSW STEEL 740 747 752 759 763
KOTAKBANK 1,725 1,732 1,740 1,747 1,755
LT 2,909 2,942 2,961 2,994 3,012
LTIMINDTREE 5,084 5,117 5,148 5,180 5,211
M&M 1,466 1,477 1,485 1,496 1,503
MARUTI 10,205 10,245 10,292 10,332 10,379
NESTLEIND 23,914 24,102 24,246 24,434 24,578
NTPC 233 235 236 237 239
ONGC 188 191 192 195 197
POWERGRID 203 206 207 210 211
RELIANCE 2,320 2,330 2,335 2,344 2,349
SBILIFE 1,315 1,323 1,332 1,341 1,349
SBIN 567 571 577 580 586
SUNPHARMA 1,136 1,143 1,147 1,154 1,158
TCS 3,344 3,362 3,377 3,395 3,410
TATACONSUM
912 915 919 923 927
TATAMOTORS 638 642 647 652 657
TATASTEEL 117 118 119 120 121
TECHM 1,130 1,136 1,140 1,147 1,151
TITAN 3,209 3,238 3,274 3,303 3,339
ULTRACEMCO 8,475 8,558 8,604 8,687 8,733
UPL 546 550 553 557 560
WIPRO 381 383 385 386 388
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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