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8
4
3
3
1
8
)
During the last week, The banking index opened with a modestly
negative stance. After the initial dip on the first day, the index
experienced a strong recovery, reclaiming 43000. On Tuesday, it
started strongly, just above 43300, but as the day progressed, selling
pressure intensified with no sign of respite closing below 42900. Over
the following three sessions, the BankNifty gradually recouped its
losses, compensating for Tuesday's decline. The week concluded on a
positive note with gains of over a per cent after six weeks of negative
closures. Technically, things appeared gloomy after Tuesday's fall;
however, the index staged a strong recovery, which was indeed an
encouraging sign. Although it managed to end the week on a positive
note, the index remained tentative around the resistance zone of
43300-43400. Therefore, it will be interesting to observe the follow-
up action in this week. Early signs of completing the corrective phase
will only emerge with a sustained move beyond 44000. Until then, we
prefer to adopt a wait-and-watch approach and keep index trading
light. In terms of support levels, 43000-42800 is expected to provide
an immediate cushion in case of any intraday dip.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43000 Resistance 1 – 43800
Support 2 – 42800 Resistance 2 – 44000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
4
364
) / Nifty (
1
9
231
)
It was a week filled with notable events, and over the course of the
week, prices experienced a fierce battle between bulls and bears.
Eventually, with improved global cues, prices closed at the higher end
of the week’s range, putting an end to the recent series of losses. Nifty
ended the week with a 0.96% gain reclaiming the 19200 mark.
The week brought a sense of relief for the bulls, especially after the
sharp sell-off seen during fag end of the October month. The November
series has started on a positive note, primarily driven by two significant
factors: oversold market conditions and improved global cues. An
analysis of the weekly candle chart reveals that prices remained within
the trading range of the previous big bearish candle and have now re-
entered the region of uncertainty, ranging from 19200 to 19250, which
had witnessed a breakdown earlier. On the shorter time frame of the
hourly chart, a pattern of 'Higher Top Higher Bottom' has emerged,
though it hasn't displayed substantial bullish momentum. The future
trajectory of the market largely hinges on the sustainability of the
recent global market strength. If this strength endures, prices may
approach a key resistance level around 19350, which is a convergence
point of important moving averages (20EMA & 89EMA) and marks the
50% retracement of the recent decline. A breakthrough beyond this
point could indicate a shift in momentum favouring the bulls. On the
other hand, if prices hesitate at higher levels, we might witness a period
of consolidation leading up to the festive week, with support shifting
higher to the
19000
-
18900
range.
Traders are advised to closely monitor global developments and
keep a close watch on the aforementioned levels to make well-
informed decisions. Furthermore, it's prudent to focus on specific
stock opportunities, although caution is essential as recent market
movements have not displayed robust strength.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19150 Resistance 1 – 19300
Support 2 – 19000 Resistance 2 – 19350
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a smart recovery
during the week amidst global stability, wherein the
benchmark index Nifty50 surged nearly a percent on
a WoW basis, reclaiming 19200.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 12 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 1022 cr in Index futures with an increase in
open interest, indicating short covering.
On the derivatives front, new longs have been
witnessed in key indices on a weekly time frame. On
the options front, the highest OI concentration could
be seen at 19200 put strike, followed by decent piling
around 19000 PE, suggesting an upliftment in the
support base. While on the higher end, the 19300-
19400 call strike witnessed some writings, indicating
intermediate resistance. FIIs remained net sellers in
equities on a net basis, though the quantum is
narrowing down. While curtailing bearish bets in
index futures segments resulted in a slight
advancement of the Long Short Ratio to 18% from
12% WoW. Considering the data, our market seems
slightly relieved, though one needs to maintain
caution and track global developments.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.86%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
5.64% as the market closed at 19230.60.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
73 points against a premium of 105.60 points in the last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 176.30 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 11.08 to 10.88. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
0.89 to 0.96.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are APOLLOHOSP, CONCOR, LALPATHLAB,
MRF and ATUL.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IGL 38.24
MGL 37.42
HAVELLS 30.15
ITC 23.32
MPHASIS 37.25
Nifty Vs OI
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
10-18 10-23 10-26 10-30 11-1 11-3
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MRF 55550 27.35 107723.40 -3.11
MCX 3158000 19.80 2545.55 4.60
ALKEM 1160400 13.36 3808.95 0.16
PETRONET 39858000 12.46 196.05 0.64
LALPATHLAB 977700 11.65 2594.60 6.08
GODREJPROP 3951525 11.38 1784.40 3.88
LUPIN 7255600 10.66 1186.55 1.42
ONGC 31750950 9.93 190.00 1.88
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LICHSGFIN 17600 -14.51 462.40 3.16
INFY 22766000 -10.38 1389.05 1.31
HEROMOTOCO 3396300 -9.61 3089.45 1.34
ZYDUSLIFE 6552000 -6.73 584.85 1.22
GUJGASLTD 8508750 -6.55 419.45 2.30
LTIM 1561800 -6.43 5134.80 1.88
PERSISTENT 1584650 -5.52 6286.00 0.77
IGL 16878125 -5.20 400.55 2.37
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.96 0.99
BANKNIFTY 1.01 0.87
RELIANCE 0.59 0.53
ICICIBANK 0.70 0.48
INFY 0.48 0.45
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
230.60
FII Statistics for
November
0
3
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2981.54 1959.14 1022.40
251726 20626.46 (2.11)
INDEX
OPTIONS
654224.40 660021.45 (5797.05) 3716743 297159.37 32.28
STOCK
FUTURES
13648.53 11259.07 2389.46
2548860 176894.79 0.37
STOCK
OPTIONS
15729.62 15716.87 12.75
186243 13128.38 9.17
Total
686584.09
688956.53
(2372.44) 6703572
507809.00
16.04
Turnover on
November
0
3
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
231407 18449.39
-36.97
Index Options
136089955
31751.02
-39.01
Stock Futures
892339 64276.91
-3.56
Stock Options
3785651 4427.21 1.86
Total
37,85,651 4427.21 -21.94
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19200
261.00 59.45
40.55
19259.45
Sell
19300
201.55
Buy
19200 261.00 109.15
90.85
19309.15
Sell
19400 151.85
Buy
19300
201.55 49.70 50.30 19349.70
Sell
19400 151.85
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19400 243.70
49.00
51.00
19351.00
Sell 19300 194.70
Buy 19400 243.70
89.35
110.65
19310.65
Sell
19200 154.35
Buy
19300 194.70
40.35 59.65 19259.65
Sell 19200 154.35
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,177 2,204 2,241 2,268 2,305
ADANIPORTS 769 782 791 804 812
APOLLOHOSP 4,857 5,005 5,085 5,233 5,314
ASIANPAINT 2,927 2,952 2,968 2,993 3,008
AXISBANK 977 983 987 993 997
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,294 5,331 5,354 5,392 5,415
BAJFINANCE 7,275 7,343 7,441 7,509 7,606
BAJAJFINSV 1,487 1,511 1,553 1,577 1,618
BPCL 358 360 362 363 365
BHARTIARTL 917 924 929 936 940
BRITANNIA 4,490 4,515 4,549 4,573 4,607
CIPLA 1,194 1,200 1,210 1,216 1,226
COALINDIA 308 310 312 314 317
DIVISLAB 3,312 3,331 3,360 3,379 3,407
DRREDDY 5,166 5,214 5,296 5,344 5,426
EICHERMOT 3,308 3,368 3,413 3,473 3,518
GRASIM 1,876 1,886 1,901 1,911 1,925
HCLTECH 1,248 1,257 1,272 1,281 1,296
HDFCBANK 1,476 1,480 1,486 1,490 1,495
HDFCLIFE 617 619 622 625 628
HEROMOTOCO 3,052 3,071 3,091 3,109 3,129
HINDALCO 470 472 477 480 484
HINDUNILVR 2,476 2,493 2,503 2,519 2,529
ICICIBANK 924 929 932 937 939
INDUSINDBK 1,431 1,441 1,458 1,468 1,485
INFY 1,372 1,381 1,386 1,395 1,401
ITC 430 431 433 435 436
JSW STEEL 730 738 743 751 756
KOTAKBANK 1,722 1,727 1,736 1,742 1,750
LT 2,878 2,895 2,921 2,938 2,964
LTIMINDTREE 5,025 5,080 5,114 5,169 5,203
M&M 1,445 1,457 1,473 1,485 1,500
MARUTI 10,167 10,222 10,296 10,351 10,425
NESTLEIND 23,835 23,917 24,059 24,140 24,282
NTPC 232 233 234 235 236
ONGC 184 187 189 192 194
POWERGRID 201 203 205 206 208
RELIANCE 2,304 2,312 2,323 2,331 2,343
SBILIFE 1,311 1,320 1,335 1,344 1,359
SBIN 571 575 577 581 583
SUNPHARMA 1,125 1,133 1,139 1,147 1,154
TCS 3,317 3,334 3,361 3,378 3,405
TATACONSUM
907 910 915 918 923
TATAMOTORS 633 640 653 660 673
TATASTEEL 116 117 118 118 119
TECHM 1,108 1,121 1,128 1,141 1,148
TITAN 3,173 3,224 3,256 3,307 3,339
ULTRACEMCO 8,402 8,462 8,496 8,556 8,590
UPL 541 546 549 553 557
WIPRO 380 382 384 386 388
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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