Aug 05, 2022
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Technical & Derivatives Report
OOOOOOOO
Nifty Bank Outlook (37756)
The global screen was cheerful yesterday morning and as a result, the
banking index too opened higher in tandem with benchmark. In the
initial trade, the BANKNIFTY hastened slightly beyond the 38200 mark
and then consolidated with a small hint of profit booking. Around the
mid session, the profit booking mode turned into a sell off and in the
process, the BANKNIFTY plunged towards the 37200 mark (i.e. 1000
points from morning high) in a flash. Fortunately the selling got
arrested as we stepped into the latter half and in fact, with the help of
modest recovery, the BANKNIFTY ended the session with over six
tenths of a percent loss. In our previous commentary, we had clearly
mentioned how 38200 - 38500 is a sturdy wall for banking index and
traders should certainly take some money off the table after reaching
this zone. Yesterday's brutal sell off triggered after making a high of
38231.85. Although the magnitude at which it came, was really
surprising and even intimidating as well. For the coming session,
38000 followed by 38200 remains a strong hurdle; whereas on the
flipside, 37500 - 37200 are to be seen as key supports for the banking
index. The banking space is going to be in focus today on the back of
RBI monetary policy. Let's see how things pan out post the event.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 37500 Resistance 1 – 38000
Support 2 – 37200 Resistance 2 – 38200
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (58299) / Nifty (17382)
The Indian equity market has started the day with a decent gap up
tracking the positive global cues, wherein the benchmark index inched
towards the 17500 mark. But soon after the opening, markets lost their
sheen and slid inside the negative terrain. Generally, we term it as a
profit booking, but this time it wasn’t the normal move as we saw a
complete nosedive around the midsession, which was intimidating at
one point. Within a blink of an eye, we not only broke 17400 and 17300
but also went on to thrash the key support of 17200. Fortunately, it did
not turn out to be a nightmare, as the mighty bulls came to rescue and
defended the territory throughout the remaining part of the session.
With the intense tug of war between the bulls and the bears, the Nifty
managed to conclude the action-packed weekly expiry almost at
Wednesday’s close.
The market took a breather post six consecutive days of its up move,
but it was a bit scary at one point. Technically, the bullish structure
remains unchanged as the bulls showed their resilience and
reciprocated from lower grounds decisively. As far as levels are
concerned, 17500 is likely to be seen as a sturdy wall for the bulls, and
any persistent breakthrough could only open the gates for further
upside for the index. On the flip side, 17200 has proved its mettle in
providing vital support. Still, yesterday’s price activity was a reality
check for market participants, which is why we have been reiterating
not to get complacent at any point. The immediate support can be seen
around 17300.
The RBI monetary policy is slated in the coming session, and hence,
traders should keep a close eye on the event. Whether it turns out
to be a non-event or not, it would really be interesting to watch.
Apart from this, global development should also not be overlooked,
and hence, we may see some interesting actions going ahead.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17200 Resistance 1 – 17450
Support 2 – 17150 Resistance 2 – 17500
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The tug of war continued as we saw strong opening to
touch 17500 but all of the sudden sharp selling was
seen to drag the index below 17200. This wasn’t done
yet, luckily market recovered to conclude almost flat.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1474 crores. Simultaneously, in Index
futures, they sold worth Rs. 830 crores with an
increase in open interest, indicating short formation.
As far as derivatives segment is concerned, we saw
mixed activity in Nifty and some unwinding was
observed in banking index. Stronger hands continued
to pump in liquidity in equities but preferred addition
some shorts in index futures segment. On index
options front, we saw some fresh build-up in 17300 put
and 17500 call strike in coming weekly series. Highest
open interest concentration is now placed at 17000 put
and 17500 call strike. Considering the recent price
action, we believe index has been stuck in the range of
17100-17500 for the time being and until we remain in
this range traders can focus on individual space.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by
2.90%. and BANK Nifty futures open interest has
decreased by 4.05% as the market closed at 17382.
The Nifty Aug future closed with a premium of 7.85
point against a premium of 19.00 point in the last
trading session. The Sep series closed at a premium
of 75.10 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 18.48 to 19.25. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.28 to 1.03.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are L&TFH, ABFRL, IDEA, PIIND and
METROPOLIS.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ZYDUSLIFE 35.16
IPCALAB 34.52
GUJGASLTD 46.56
LUPIN 37.92
CIPLA 31.77
Nifty Vs OI
15600
15800
16000
16200
16400
16600
16800
17000
17200
17400
17600
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
7/18 7/20 7/22 7/26 7/28 7/1 7/4
Openinterest Nifty
OI
Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GUJGASLTD 5805000 70.55 444.45 -6.08
ALKEM 451200 31.16 3151.75 0.97
TATACONSUM 8849700 16.53 789.25 -2.92
LUPIN 10717650 13.35 659.95 5.13
IPCALAB 867100 12.76 1024.95 4.78
APOLLOTYRE 12992000 12.72 232.20 1.72
INDUSTOWER 19908000 12.29 203.30 -1.89
NAM-INDIA 2731200 11.28 299.55 -0.12
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
INDIGO 2462100 -12.73 1986.05 0.63
BOSCHLTD 173150 -12.53 17561.70 1.32
AUBANK 6460000 -12.42 636.60 4.66
BATAINDIA 2105125 -8.78 1913.85 -0.72
FSL 20051200 -7.46 105.35 2.03
PERSISTENT 562050 -7.23 3769.30 1.34
NAVINFLUOR 566550 -6.39 4320.95 1.36
GSPL 3162500 -6.37 238.40 -0.75
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.03 1.01
BANKNIFTY 0.84 1.03
RELIANCE 0.54 0.48
ICICIBANK 0.68 0.61
INFY 0.74 0.48
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Technical & Derivatives Report
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Aug Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
17,
38
2
FII Statistics for
August
0
4
, 2022
Detail Buy
Contracts
Open
Interest
Value
(in Cr.)
Sell
Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3421.67 4251.52 (829.85) 137414 12306.52 1.09
INDEX
OPTIONS
2495243.95 2494114.63 1129.32
845288 74847.75 (36.43)
STOCK
FUTURES
12647.40 11945.70 701.70
2147950 145976.03 0.76
STOCK
OPTIONS
9113.12 8949.30 163.82
105401 7283.08 9.62
Total 2520426.14
2519261.15
1164.99
3236053
240413.38
(12.38)
Turnover on
August
0
4
, 2022
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnov
er
( in Cr.
)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
560204 50373.00 53.40
Index Options
338899646 30886857.28 150.59
Stock Futures
973262 65089.63 12.26
Stock Options
3349452 231827.70 7.59
Total
3,349,452 231827.70 147.26
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
17400 346.05
57.35
42.65
17457.35
Sell
17500 288.70
Buy
17400 346.05
110.35
89.65
17510.35
Sell
17600 235.70
Buy
17500 288.70
53.00 47.00 17553.00
Sell
17600 235.70
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 17400 239.75
36.25
63.75
17363.75
Sell
17300 203.50
Buy 17400 239.75
68.65
131.35
17331.35
Sell 17200 171.10
Buy
17300 203.50
32.40 67.60 17267.60
Sell
17200 171.10
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
16700 16800 16900 17000 17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1 R2
ADANIPORTS
784
796
808
820
832
APOLLOHOSP 4,273 4,334
4,372 4,433
4,471
ASIANPAINT 3,383 3,422
3,449 3,488
3,516
AXISBANK 699 710
724
735
748
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,949 3,980
4,008
4,039 4,067
BAJFINANCE
7,122
7,219
7,302
7,399
7,482
BAJAJFINSV
14,864
15,025
15,216
15,377
15,568
BPCL 326 330
334
338
342
BHARTIARTL 673 684
691
702
709
BRITANNIA 3,698 3,737
3,764 3,803
3,830
CIPLA
1,004
1,024
1,035
1,056
1,067
COALINDIA
202
204
209
212
216
DIVISLAB
3,776
3,832
3,868 3,924 3,960
DRREDDY 4,062 4,105
4,132
4,175 4,202
EICHERMOT 3,052 3,099
3,148
3,195 3,243
GRASIM
1,540
1,560
1,581
1,600
1,621
HCLTECH
934
946
958
970
982
HDFCBANK
1,397
1,414
1,431
1,448
1,464
HDFCLIFE
525
530
535
540
545
HDFC 2,303 2,332
2,359
2,389
2,416
HEROMOTOCO
2,756
2,781
2,805 2,830
2,854
HINDALCO 410 416
424
430
439
HINDUNILVR 2,600 2,614
2,629
2,643
2,657
ICICIBANK
798
809
820
831
841
INDUSINDBK
1,027
1,038
1,056
1,067
1,085
INFY
1,564
1,582
1,593
1,611
1,622
ITC
306
308
309
311
312
JSW STEEL
643
654
664
674
684
KOTAKBANK
1,792
1,814
1,836
1,858
1,881
LT
1,750
1,765
1,790
1,805
1,830
M&M
1,229
1,246
1,255
1,272
1,281
MARUTI 8,730 8,848
8,948
9,066
9,166
NESTLEIND 19,196 19,523
19,723
20,051
20,251
NTPC 149 152
156
159
164
ONGC
133
134
136
138
139
POWERGRID
216
219
221
224
226
RELIANCE 2,492 2,532
2,575 2,615 2,658
SBILIFE
1,262
1,270
1,279
1,287
1,295
SHREECEM 20,116 20,402
20,826
21,112
21,536
SBIN 514 524
534
543
554
SUNPHARMA
887
903
911
927
936
TCS
3,270
3,312
3,350
3,393
3,431
TATACONSUM
773 781
789
798
806
TATAMOTORS
449
459
466
476
484
TATASTEEL 104 106
108
109
111
TECHM 1,018 1,037
1,055
1,074
1,091
TITAN 2,349 2,386
2,408
2,446
2,468
ULTRACEMCO
6,472
6,530
6,608
6,666
6,743
UPL
712
722
731
741
751
WIPRO 421 428
434
442
448
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*
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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