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The US market closed on a strong note as the Fed held rates
unchanged, which turned sentiment in favor of the bulls. As suggested
by GIFT NIFTY, the BankNifty had a gap-up opening in line with the
benchmark index. We started the day around 43000 and, within the
first thirty minutes of trade, saw a surge towards 43300. Nevertheless,
the index failed to keep up its momentum, and profit-taking pushed it
down to 42800. After some consolidation, the index continued to
hover around the vicinity of 43000 until the end. Eventually, we
managed to conclude the day around the opening zone with gains of
0.75 percent.
Recently, the market has been firmly in the grip of bears, and the
weakness is likely to persist in the coming days until we see an upsurge
beyond Tuesday's high, which is around 43400. Though we had a
strong start yesterday, the index remained tentative around the
resistance zone of 43200-43400. Hence, it would be interesting to see
the follow-up action on Friday. Early signs of completing the corrective
phase will only appear with a sustained move beyond 44000.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
4081
) / Nifty (
1
9133
)
Following the pivotal FOMC meeting, Asian markets opened the
morning on a strong footing. Inspired by this, our domestic markets
initiated trading with an upward gap, surpassing the 19100 level at the
start. Subsequently, the benchmark index experienced a choppy
session, eventually settling close to the opening levels with a 0.76%
gain, concluding at 19133.
The initial response following the FOMC meeting has been optimistic,
with prices rebounding after two days of weakness and approaching a
critical turning point. It's worth noting that initial market movements
post such events can sometimes be hasty reactions, and the
subsequent movements are often of greater significance. In the
upcoming sessions, the recent breakdown levels around 19200 - 19250
will be a significant challenge. If prices manage to break through this
range, it would signify positive developments on the shorter-term
hourly charts, potentially paving the way for further upside. In such a
scenario, the next formidable obstacle would be at 19350, a confluence
zone marked by key moving averages (20EMA & 89EMA) and the 50%
retracement of the recent decline. Conversely, if prices remain
indecisive around the 19200 - 19250 range, we might then witness
continued consolidation, with immediate support levels at 19060 and
18970. Traders should closely monitor these levels and make informed
decisions on the last day of the trading week. Additionally, focusing on
specific stock opportunities is advisable, though caution is needed as
the follow-up market movements have not shown impressive strength.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19060 Resistance 1 – 19250
Support 2 – 18970 Resistance 2 – 19350
Until then, we will continue to exercise caution in this space.
Regarding support levels, 42600-42500 is expected to provide an
immediate cushion in case of any intraday blip.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 42600 Resistance 1 – 43400
Support 2 – 42400 Resistance 2 – 43600
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The Indian equity markets witnessed a smart
recovery after the FOMC outcome. The benchmark
index Nifty50 hopped above 19100, procuring 0.76
percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1261 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 901 cr in Index futures with an increase in
open interest, indicating short addition.
On the derivatives front, decent additions in OI were
seen in both key indices with an upsurge in prices. On
the options front, a strong piling of OI concentration
is seen at 19000-19100 put strikes, suggesting
immediate support for Nifty. On the higher end, the
highest OI concentration is seen at 19200 CE,
suggesting immediate resistance. Long Short Ratio
slightly advanced to 16% from 15%. Considering the
recent data, markets await some trigger to come out
of the consolidation phase. For the time being, one
needs to maintain caution and stay selective with
stock preferences for an outperformance.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.50%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
1.30% as the market closed at 19133.25.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
105.60 points against a premium of 71.10 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 208.95 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 12.05 to 11.08. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
0.82 to 0.89.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are RECLTD, PFC, BRITANNIA, GAIL and
DELTACORP.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IGL 38.16
MGL 37.50
HAVELLS 30.22
ITC 23.37
MPHASIS 37.33
Nifty Vs OI
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
10-17 10-20 10-25 10-27 10-31 11-2
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ALKEM 1023600 22.06 3792.25 2.08
IOC 130016250 15.10 95.06 2.74
DELTACORP 14081200 13.97 134.70 7.96
LUPIN 6556900 13.13 1169.20 3.30
LICHSGFIN 28148000 9.90 448.70 -2.06
HEROMOTOCO 3757200 8.47 3052.00 -1.19
BHEL 100222500 6.64 128.05 5.79
PFC 64294000 6.34 257.65 6.33
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IGL 17600 -10.03 389.85 2.32
BRITANNIA 2056000 -8.33 4527.30 2.99
LALPATHLAB 875700 -8.03 2463.15 2.68
MGL 2199200 -7.69 1034.70 3.05
MARUTI 2648300 -6.55 10303.65 0.83
INDUSTOWER 73708600 -5.89 190.15 5.55
GRANULES 8704000 -4.83 341.65 1.73
M&MFIN 38308000 -4.75 250.95 1.78
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.89 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.86 0.89
RELIANCE 0.62 0.49
ICICIBANK 0.65 0.50
INFY 0.48 0.47
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9133
.
2
5
FII Statistics for
November
0
2
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3950.39 4851.10 (900.71) 257148 20892.74 11.08
INDEX
OPTIONS
1649827.63 1669468.71 (19641.08) 2809703 222611.06 (19.32)
STOCK
FUTURES
14604.22 13251.98 1352.24
2539570 175078.70 0.35
STOCK
OPTIONS
15976.02 15816.14 159.88
170596 11910.01 8.29
Total
1684358.26
1703387.93
(19029.67) 5777017
430492.51
(9.76)
Turnover on
November
0
2
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
373665 29272.04
41.87
Index Options
409564865
52063.27
1.45
Stock Futures
940012 66649.64
13.84
Stock Options
3631103 4346.38 10.95
Total
36,31,103 4346.38 13.33
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19000
360.75 67.70
32.30
19067.70
Sell
19100
293.05
Buy
19000 360.75 129.65
70.35
19129.65
Sell
19200 231.10
Buy
19100
293.05 61.95 38.05 19161.95
Sell
19200 231.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19200 189.95
37.80
62.20
19162.20
Sell 19100 152.15
Buy 19200 189.95
67.85
132.15
19132.15
Sell
19000 122.10
Buy
19100 152.15
30.05 69.95 19069.05
Sell 19000 122.10
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,145 2,180 2,239 2,274 2,333
ADANIPORTS 765 770 777 781 788
APOLLOHOSP 4,779 4,833 4,864 4,918 4,949
ASIANPAINT 2,922 2,939 2,950 2,967 2,978
AXISBANK 967 975 982 990 996
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,224 5,271 5,332 5,379 5,440
BAJFINANCE 7,288 7,369 7,492 7,572 7,696
BAJAJFINSV 1,552 1,564 1,578 1,590 1,605
BPCL 355 358 360 363 365
BHARTIARTL 913 918 922 928 932
BRITANNIA 4,402 4,465 4,517 4,579 4,631
CIPLA 1,188 1,198 1,205 1,215 1,222
COALINDIA 304 307 310 312 315
DIVISLAB 3,283 3,313 3,361 3,391 3,438
DRREDDY 5,267 5,303 5,359 5,395 5,451
EICHERMOT 3,262 3,300 3,323 3,361 3,383
GRASIM 1,870 1,884 1,892 1,906 1,915
HCLTECH 1,261 1,267 1,271 1,277 1,281
HDFCBANK 1,455 1,466 1,478 1,489 1,501
HDFCLIFE 613 616 621 625 630
HEROMOTOCO 2,973 3,012 3,081 3,121 3,190
HINDALCO 459 466 471 479 484
HINDUNILVR 2,449 2,468 2,482 2,501 2,515
ICICIBANK 907 914 919 926 931
INDUSINDBK 1,419 1,440 1,460 1,481 1,501
INFY 1,355 1,362 1,369 1,377 1,384
ITC 427 429 431 433 435
JSW STEEL 722 727 731 737 740
KOTAKBANK 1,716 1,727 1,743 1,754 1,769
LT 2,885 2,902 2,920 2,936 2,954
LTIMINDTREE 4,933 4,977 5,050 5,093 5,166
M&M 1,442 1,456 1,467 1,481 1,492
MARUTI 10,139 10,221 10,283 10,365 10,427
NESTLEIND 23,635 23,873 24,012 24,250 24,388
NTPC 233 234 235 236 237
ONGC 185 185 187 187 188
POWERGRID 200 201 203 204 205
RELIANCE 2,301 2,311 2,317 2,327 2,334
SBILIFE 1,330 1,337 1,347 1,354 1,365
SBIN 564 568 572 576 580
SUNPHARMA 1,100 1,116 1,127 1,143 1,154
TCS 3,327 3,344 3,360 3,376 3,393
TATACONSUM
897 904 911 918 925
TATAMOTORS 627 632 635 640 643
TATASTEEL 113 116 117 120 121
TECHM 1,104 1,110 1,120 1,126 1,136
TITAN 3,155 3,178 3,203 3,227 3,252
ULTRACEMCO 8,337 8,398 8,436 8,496 8,534
UPL 532 536 539 544 547
WIPRO 381 382 384 385 387
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
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