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Tuesday’s profit booking from higher levels was followed by a cautious
start for BankNifty on the weekly expiry day. Due to lack of
momentum, the banking index traded in a very tight range throughout
the day, eventually closing in the red for the second consecutive
session, precisely at the 42700 mark.
The banking index had a lackluster weekly settlement. Despite some
tentativeness, it has managed to defend the key support zone
of 42600-42500. Considering the recent price movements, we
anticipate weakness to persist in coming days. Hence, for traders
atleast, it is not advisable to catch a falling knife at this moment. at
present, 43000-43400 should act as a strong resistance zone. On the
flipside, one should keep a close eye on 42400, followed by 42100, as
these are crucial support zones to monitor. If the index tests these
levels, we could potentially see further selling pressure, possibly
correcting further down to 41600, which coincides with the 61.8%
retracement level of the upmove between March and September.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 42400 Resistance 1 – 43000
Support 2 – 42100 Resistance 2 – 43400
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
3
591
) / Nifty (
1
8989
)
In the absence of any significant catalyst, Indian equity markets
commenced the trading session with a subdued tone. Subsequently,
prices displayed a lack of enthusiasm and gradually declined
throughout the day. Eventually, the Nifty index concluded with a cut of
0.46%, ending a tad below the 19000 mark.
From a technical perspective, there hasn't been much alteration, as
prices remained under pressure and slipped further ahead of the crucial
FOMC meeting. It appears that market participants chose to maintain
light positions due to the event's uncertainty. The upcoming session
holds great importance and is expected to influence the short-term
market direction. The price structure continues to exhibit weakness,
and in the event of negative developments, prices may descend toward
the levels of 18900 and then towards the recent low of 18840 on the
weekly expiry. Should positive developments arise, one should
remain caution, and complacent long positions on the upside should be
avoided. In such a scenario, the range between 19100 and 19200 is
likely to present a formidable barrier. Traders should closely monitor
these levels and adjust their trading strategies accordingly during the
weekly expiry. We anticipate heightened volatility, so it's prudent for
traders to steer clear of excessive risks.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 18900 Resistance 1 – 19100
Support 2 – 18800 Resistance 2 – 19200
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The Indian equity markets witnessed a weak day of
trade amidst a lack of buyers’ traction ahead of the
FOMC meeting. The Nifty50 index slipped below the
19000 mark, showcasing a sense of tentativeness in
the market.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1817 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 362 cr in Index futures with an increase in
open interest, indicating short addition.
On the derivatives front, a short formation was seen
in the key indices ahead of the FOMC meeting. On
the options front, a decent piling of OI concentration
is seen at 18900-18800 put strikes, suggesting
immediate support for Nifty. On the higher end, the
highest OI concentration is seen at 19100 CE,
suggesting immediate resistance. Long Short Ratio
slightly advanced to 15% from 12% on WoW basis.
Considering the recent data, our market seems a bit
tentative and is likely to get its moves from the global
developments. For the time being, it is advisable to
stay light on positions and avoid undue risk.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.03%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
1.31% as the market closed at 18989.15.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
71.10 points against a premium of 78.60 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 176.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 11.83 to 12.05. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 0.91
to 0.82.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are JINDALSTEL, IOC, BSOFT, SUNPHARMA
and INDUSTOWER.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IGL 38.13
MGL 37.38
HAVELLS 30.17
ITC 23.41
MPHASIS 37.32
Nifty Vs OI
18200
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
10-16 10-18 10-23 10-26 10-30 11-1
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
JINDALSTEL 29248750 15.45 585.05 -7.66
LICHSGFIN 25612000 12.03 457.35 -0.28
IGL 19787625 11.60 381.10 -0.61
ABB 1554250 10.06 4054.95 -1.25
MFSL 7522400 9.50 883.80 -3.37
ALKEM 838600 9.05 3722.60 -0.03
LT 9589800 7.99 2895.30 -1.28
LALPATHLAB 952200 7.96 2380.70 -1.13
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TORNTPHARM 17600 -6.20 1920.00 -0.42
HDFCLIFE 14132800 -5.55 620.05 0.39
TATACONSUM 8709300 -5.50 903.15 0.12
DIXON 1072200 -4.51 5181.30 1.41
MARUTI 2834000 -4.35 10227.65 -1.73
CANFINHOME 3647475 -4.13 758.70 -0.66
RAMCOCEM 2658800 -3.99 984.30 -0.83
INDHOTEL 23392000 -3.47 389.10 1.36
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.82 0.95
BANKNIFTY 0.88 0.99
RELIANCE 0.67 0.47
ICICIBANK 0.65 0.50
INFY 0.51 0.45
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
8989
.
15
FII Statistics for
November
0
1
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2764.80 3126.39 (361.59) 231499 18780.97 7.46
INDEX
OPTIONS
2005381.38 2000059.39 5321.99
3482536 301534.80 (18.46)
STOCK
FUTURES
12067.72 13275.90 (1208.18) 2530587 171936.11 1.10
STOCK
OPTIONS
15013.54 15115.75 (102.21) 157541 10853.07 15.94
Total
2035227.44
2031577.43
3650.01
6402163
503104.95
(10.15)
Turnover on
November
0
1
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
268510 20633.37
-17.37
Index Options
651664515
51320.30
-16.58
Stock Futures
833578 58545.28
-1.37
Stock Options
3229343 3917.39 5.27
Total
32,29,343 3917.39 -10.13
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
18900
332.30 63.25
36.75
18963.25
Sell
19000
269.05
Buy
18900 332.30 120.75
79.25
19020.75
Sell
19100 211.55
Buy
19000
269.05 57.50 42.50 19057.50
Sell
19100 211.55
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19100 250.50
42.80
57.20
19057.20
Sell 19000 207.70
Buy 19100 250.50
79.30
120.70
19020.70
Sell
18900 171.20
Buy
19000 207.70
36.50 63.50 18963.50
Sell 18900 171.20
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,140 2,179 2,246 2,284 2,351
ADANIPORTS 752 761 776 784 799
APOLLOHOSP 4,748 4,772 4,814 4,838 4,880
ASIANPAINT 2,879 2,907 2,958 2,986 3,037
AXISBANK 962 967 973 978 984
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,222 5,283 5,366 5,428 5,511
BAJFINANCE 7,402 7,437 7,493 7,528 7,584
BAJAJFINSV 1,558 1,565 1,573 1,580 1,588
BPCL 347 352 355 360 364
BHARTIARTL 889 901 908 920 927
BRITANNIA 4,292 4,345 4,400 4,453 4,509
CIPLA 1,177 1,189 1,199 1,211 1,221
COALINDIA 299 303 309 313 319
DIVISLAB 3,296 3,321 3,365 3,390 3,434
DRREDDY 5,255 5,301 5,360 5,406 5,466
EICHERMOT 3,251 3,266 3,291 3,307 3,331
GRASIM 1,840 1,854 1,876 1,890 1,911
HCLTECH 1,236 1,248 1,267 1,278 1,297
HDFCBANK 1,456 1,465 1,471 1,481 1,487
HDFCLIFE 613 617 620 624 627
HEROMOTOCO 3,035 3,064 3,104 3,133 3,173
HINDALCO 452 457 462 467 472
HINDUNILVR 2,451 2,461 2,478 2,489 2,505
ICICIBANK 905 910 914 918 922
INDUSINDBK 1,417 1,425 1,435 1,443 1,454
INFY 1,335 1,345 1,361 1,371 1,387
ITC 423 425 428 431 434
JSW STEEL 714 719 728 734 743
KOTAKBANK 1,708 1,716 1,726 1,734 1,744
LT 2,804 2,850 2,917 2,962 3,029
LTIMINDTREE 4,914 4,957 5,031 5,073 5,148
M&M 1,428 1,441 1,463 1,476 1,498
MARUTI 10,046 10,137 10,280 10,370 10,513
NESTLEIND 23,531 23,702 23,951 24,122 24,371
NTPC 229 231 234 236 238
ONGC 183 185 187 189 191
POWERGRID 199 200 201 202 203
RELIANCE 2,254 2,276 2,297 2,318 2,339
SBILIFE 1,303 1,320 1,349 1,365 1,394
SBIN 561 564 567 569 572
SUNPHARMA 1,061 1,088 1,110 1,138 1,160
TCS 3,277 3,304 3,338 3,365 3,398
TATACONSUM
882 893 906 917 931
TATAMOTORS 622 625 629 632 637
TATASTEEL 114 115 117 118 120
TECHM 1,110 1,117 1,128 1,135 1,146
TITAN 3,140 3,157 3,185 3,201 3,229
ULTRACEMCO 8,324 8,353 8,399 8,428 8,474
UPL 523 528 534 539 545
WIPRO 377 379 382 384 388
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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