November
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1
, 2023
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4
2846
)
The rate-sensitive index had a positive start, moving in tandem with
our benchmark. The selling pressure intensified as the day progressed,
erasing the morning gains. Unlike the previous session, there was no
sign of recovery. After some consolidation during the day, selling
pressure intensified towards the end, dragging the index below 43000.
The day concluded with a decline of over four-tenths of a percent
compared to the previous close.
Bears have undeniably maintained a strong grip on our market
recently, and any attempt of a rebound lacks follow-up buying
interest. As previously highlighted in our commentary, we anticipated
that BankNifty would encounter resistance around 43100 and 43400.
Only a sustained move beyond 44000 would give early signs of
completing the corrective phase. With yesterday's selling pressure,
particularly in the banking sector which has been the weakest link, we
would continue to exercise caution within this space. As far as support
levels are concerned, 42600-42500 is expected to provide some
cushion.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 42600 Resistance 1 – 43100
Support 2 – 42500 Resistance 2 – 43400
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
3875
) / Nifty (
1
9
080
)
Overnight the US stock markets showed significant strength, leading to
a gap-up opening in our own markets, surpassing the 19200 level.
However, this initial surge was not sustained, and prices quickly
dropped below 19100. Subsequently, prices exhibited choppy moves
within a range and eventually closed by 0.32% at 19080.
On the daily chart, the gap-up opening encountered resistance in the
critical zone between 19200 and 19250. This zone had previously
triggered a sharp selloff last week and is now proving to be a formidable
barrier. Overall, there was a lack of momentum, suggesting that traders
might be on the sidelines, awaiting the key Federal Reserve policy
announcement. Looking ahead, we anticipate encountering multiple
resistance levels, including 19200-19250 and then 19350 (represented
by the 89EMA and a significant retracement level). On the downside,
immediate support lies at 19000, followed by 18900. It appears that
further consolidation within this range is likely, and a definitive
directional move may only occur upon a breakout beyond the
mentioned levels. Until then, traders should remain attentive to these
levels and be prepared to trade on either side of the trend.
Given the recent market decline, caution is advised, and aggressive
long positions should be avoided, especially as we approach a crucial
event. Traders are encouraged to refrain from making bold overnight
bets.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19000 Resistance 1 – 19200
Support 2 – 18900 Resistance 2 – 19250
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The Indian equity markets resumed their sell-off
after two days of recovery. The benchmark index,
Nifty50 slipped from the stiff resistance towards the
pivotal zone, shedding nearly 0.32 percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 696 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 68 cr in Index futures with an increase in
open interest, indicating long addition.
On the derivatives front, there was an insignificant
change in the key indices. On the options front, a
decent piling of OI concentration is seen at 19100-
19000 put strikes, suggesting primary support for
Nifty. On the higher end, the highest OI
concentration is seen at 19200 CE, suggesting
immediate resistance. Long Short Ration slightly
advanced to 13% from 12%. Considering the recent
data, our market seems to consolidate in the near
period; hence, it is advisable to stay very selective
among stock preferences and avoid aggressive bets
on either side for the time being.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.60%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
0.17% as the market closed at 19079.60.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
78.60 points against a premium of 80 points in the last
trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 182.20 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 11.49 to 11.83. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.10
to 0.91.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are PIDILITIND, COLPAL, SBILIFE,
SUNPHARMA and SIEMENS.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
IGL 38.23
MGL 37.24
HAVELLS 30.24
ITC 23.47
MPHASIS 37.39
Nifty Vs OI
18200
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
10-13 10-17 10-20 10-25 10-27 10-31
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MCX 2409600 20.22 2330.95 2.44
GNFC 11876800 12.78 691.45 0.94
SIEMENS 2441525 12.31 3330.95 -3.01
PETRONET 32544000 11.62 199.60 -0.77
COROMANDEL 1640100 9.33 1043.00 0.52
PERSISTENT 1577225 9.27 6160.25 1.49
TVSMOTOR 7212800 9.19 1590.80 -1.06
ALKEM 769000 8.80 3721.85 0.96
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LALPATHLAB 17600 -7.58 2419.20 1.79
CIPLA 9209850 -5.96 1200.00 0.56
KOTAKBANK 25534000 -5.66 1739.40 1.21
SBIN 88164000 -3.84 565.55 0.01
DALBHARAT 2295000 -3.68 2104.20 2.61
JKCEMENT 604250 -3.59 3154.05 2.02
ONGC 29190700 -3.59 186.15 -1.51
INDIGO 6120000 -3.49 2453.80 -1.64
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.91 0.91
BANKNIFTY 0.84 0.95
RELIANCE 0.72 0.49
ICICIBANK 0.67 0.60
INFY 0.53 0.38
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Technical & Derivatives Report
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
079
.
60
FII Statistics for
October
3
1
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3833.72 3765.75 67.97
215432 17525.90 2.71
INDEX
OPTIONS
2103831.06 2095707.32 8123.74
4271080 343013.41 (2.84)
STOCK
FUTURES
14011.95 13450.25 561.70
2503027 170539.33 (0.05)
STOCK
OPTIONS
13976.31 13946.90 29.41
135886 9393.67 12.84
Total
2135653.04
2126870.22
8782.82
7125425
540472.31
(1.45)
Turnover on
October
3
1
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
319316 24972.18
-4.25
Index Options
557972267
61518.21
5.39
Stock Futures
839078 59357.40
-4.61
Stock Options
3002935 3721.40 -9.81
Total
30,02,935 3721.40 -0.82
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19000
334.25 62.75
37.25
19062.75
Sell
19100
271.50
Buy
19000 334.25 119.45
80.55
19119.45
Sell
19200 214.80
Buy
19100
271.50 56.70 43.30 19156.70
Sell
19200 214.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19200 254.55
45.10
54.90
19154.90
Sell 19100 209.45
Buy 19200 254.55
80.45
119.55
19119.55
Sell
19000 174.10
Buy
19100 209.45
35.35 64.65 19064.65
Sell 19000 174.10
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900
Call Put
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`
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,253 2,274 2,297 2,318 2,341
ADANIPORTS 778 781 786 790 795
APOLLOHOSP 4,747 4,784 4,842 4,878 4,936
ASIANPAINT 2,945 2,970 2,991 3,017 3,038
AXISBANK 966 974 986 994 1,006
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,251 5,282 5,324 5,356 5,398
BAJFINANCE 7,392 7,442 7,511 7,561 7,630
BAJAJFINSV 1,539 1,554 1,568 1,583 1,597
BPCL 340 345 349 354 359
BHARTIARTL 906 910 917 921 928
BRITANNIA 4,358 4,392 4,436 4,470 4,514
CIPLA 1,184 1,192 1,199 1,207 1,214
COALINDIA 308 311 314 317 320
DIVISLAB 3,344 3,366 3,395 3,417 3,445
DRREDDY 5,299 5,333 5,387 5,421 5,475
EICHERMOT 3,237 3,266 3,317 3,346 3,396
GRASIM 1,854 1,870 1,881 1,897 1,908
HCLTECH 1,248 1,262 1,271 1,285 1,294
HDFCBANK 1,455 1,466 1,485 1,496 1,515
HDFCLIFE 598 608 615 625 631
HEROMOTOCO 3,043 3,066 3,103 3,125 3,162
HINDALCO 448 454 459 465 471
HINDUNILVR 2,457 2,471 2,481 2,495 2,505
ICICIBANK 903 909 920 926 937
INDUSINDBK 1,423 1,432 1,446 1,455 1,469
INFY 1,353 1,361 1,371 1,379 1,389
ITC 424 426 430 432 435
JSW STEEL 722 729 734 741 746
KOTAKBANK 1,704 1,722 1,734 1,752 1,765
LT 2,886 2,907 2,930 2,951 2,973
LTIMINDTREE 4,979 5,020 5,092 5,133 5,205
M&M 1,429 1,444 1,470 1,485 1,512
MARUTI 10,232 10,312 10,401 10,481 10,570
NESTLEIND 24,021 24,128 24,229 24,336 24,437
NTPC 232 234 236 237 239
ONGC 181 184 187 189 192
POWERGRID 199 201 202 203 204
RELIANCE 2,255 2,271 2,300 2,316 2,345
SBILIFE 1,298 1,333 1,354 1,389 1,410
SBIN 560 563 566 569 572
SUNPHARMA 1,041 1,065 1,092 1,116 1,143
TCS 3,324 3,346 3,373 3,395 3,422
TATACONSUM
887 894 899 905 910
TATAMOTORS 618 623 633 638 647
TATASTEEL 117 118 119 120 121
TECHM 1,107 1,120 1,129 1,142 1,150
TITAN 3,043 3,116 3,161 3,234 3,279
ULTRACEMCO 8,307 8,365 8,408 8,466 8,509
UPL 522 531 537 547 553
WIPRO 377 379 382 384 387
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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