Daily Technical Report
August 19, 2013
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (18598) / NIFTY (5508)
On Friday, our benchmark indices opened lower as indicated
by the SGX Nifty. Right from the opening tick, we witnessed
immense selling pressure in the market. As a result, the Nifty
plunged by more than 4% during the session. All sectors
remained under pressure and closed in negative territory. The
decline was mainly led by Consumer Durables, Realty, Metal
and Banking stocks. The Advance to Decline ratio was strongly
in favor of declining counters. (A=711 D=1608) (Source-
Formation
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ are placed at
19384/ 5825and 18611 / 5620 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ are placed at
19240 / 5721 and 19319 / 5803, respectively.
The monthly ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator is signaling a
negative crossover.
Source: Falcon:
The weekly ‘Lower Top - Lower Bottom’ formation in Nifty
is still intact.
Actionable points:
The 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the
rise from 4531 (low of December 2011 candle) to 6230
View
Bearish below 5477
(high of May 2013 candle) are placed at 5380 and 5180,
Expected Target
5380
respectively.
Resistance Levels
5550 - 5590
Trading strategy:
We have been mentioning in our previous couple of reports
In-line with our expectation, we first witnessed a bounce
that the overall structure remains negative and we advise
towards 5720 - 5762 during the first half of the week. This
positional traders with a 5 to 7 week perspective to adopt a
week’s high of 5755 precisely coincides with the ’20 Day EMA’.
“Sell on Rise” strategy.
This technical tool is considered as a strong resistance and
during Friday’s session, we witnessed immense selling pressure
around ’20 Day EMA’. This eventually led to massive intraday
fall of more than four percent for the first time after September
22, 2011. Every attempt by the bulls to recover from the lows
got sold into and this single day fall overshadowed the entire
bounce seen during the previous four trading sessions. At
present, the monthly ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator is signaling a
negative crossover. In addition, the weekly ‘Lower Top Lower
Bottom’ is still intact and indicates further weakness in the near
term. Considering all these technical evidences, we are of the
opinion that if Nifty stays below the crucial support level of
5477 then we are likely to see a further correction towards
5380 (50% Fibonacci retracement level) and even possibility of
testing the 5180 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) level
cannot be ruled out.
1
Daily Technical Report
August 19, 2013
Bank Nifty Outlook - (9451)
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Weekly Chart
On Friday, the Bank nifty too opened with a downside gap
in-line with our benchmark index and corrected
significantly. Also the “Bullish Engulfing “candlestick
pattern mentioned in the previous report is now negated.
Going forward considering the current negative
momentum, if the Bank Nifty sustains below 9420, then
we may witness further selling pressure towards
9300/9110. On the flipside, 9580 -9832 levels would act
as immediate resistance levels for Bank Nifty. At this
juncture, the charts of individual Banking heavyweights
such as SBI, ICICI, HDFC bank and AXIS bank do not
warrant buying from a trading prospective. Traders are
advised to stay light on position and trade with strict stop
losses.
Actionable points:
Source: Falcon:
View
Bearish Below 9420
Expected targets
9300- 9110
Support Levels
9580- 9832
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Daily Technical Report
August 19, 2013
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
18,072
18,335
18,823
19,086
19,574
NIFTY
5,353
5,430
5,574
5,651
5,794
BANKNIFTY
9,116
9,284
9,587
9,755
10,059
ACC
1,128
1,143
1,167
1,182
1,206
AMBUJACEM
167
170
174
177
181
ASIANPAINT
400
410
423
432
446
AXISBANK
994
1,021
1,068
1,095
1,142
BAJAJ-AUTO
1,770
1,809
1,867
1,906
1,964
BANKBARODA
445
462
492
509
539
BHARTIARTL
322
329
338
345
355
BHEL
96
101
109
114
123
BPCL
277
284
294
301
311
CAIRN
290
296
304
309
317
CIPLA
404
410
418
423
431
COALINDIA
249
254
262
267
276
DLF
136
141
149
153
161
DRREDDY
2,112
2,139
2,177
2,204
2,242
GAIL
278
288
306
316
334
GRASIM
2,231
2,282
2,355
2,406
2,479
HCLTECH
888
904
923
939
958
HDFC
700
719
750
768
799
HDFCBANK
561
575
598
612
635
HEROMOTOCO
1,894
1,939
1,972
2,018
2,050
HINDALCO
89
91
94
97
100
HINDUNILVR
581
590
604
613
627
ICICIBANK
830
844
870
885
911
IDFC
102
104
108
110
113
INDUSINDBK
331
344
361
374
391
INFY
2,923
2,951
2,995
3,023
3,068
ITC
305
313
325
333
346
JINDALSTEL
200
207
216
223
232
JPASSOCIAT
27
28
31
32
34
KOTAKBANK
606
619
640
653
674
LT
729
743
769
783
809
LUPIN
785
801
825
841
865
M&M
803
822
847
866
891
MARUTI
1,272
1,298
1,344
1,370
1,416
NMDC
103
106
111
114
118
NTPC
134
137
141
143
147
ONGC
256
264
278
285
299
PNB
467
484
509
525
551
POWERGRID
94
96
98
100
101
RANBAXY
359
369
387
397
414
RELIANCE
787
807
837
857
887
RELINFRA
301
313
334
346
367
SBIN
1,518
1,544
1,579
1,605
1,640
SESAGOA
122
126
133
137
143
SUNPHARMA
525
534
544
553
563
TATAMOTORS
304
309
316
321
328
TATAPOWER
69
71
75
77
80
TATASTEEL
221
228
239
246
256
TCS
1,714
1,748
1,789
1,822
1,863
ULTRACEMCO
1,579
1,631
1,691
1,743
1,802
3
Daily Technical Report
August 19, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 30940000
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni
-
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
-
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
-
Technical Analyst
Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd.
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