Daily Technical Report
June 25, 2013
Exhibit 1: Nifty Hourly Chart
Sensex (18541) / NIFTY (5590)
Yesterday, markets opened nearly half a percent lower on
the back of weak global cues and subsequently continued
the negative trend as the day progressed. In the process, the
Nifty corrected nearly one and half percent to close below
the psychological level of 5600 mark. All sectors ended in
the negative territory with the Realty, Consumer Durables
and Capital Goods counters leading the decline. The
advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining
counters.
(A=650 D=1636)
(Source-
Formation
The ’20-week EMA’ and the ’89-Week EMA’ are placed
at 19230/ 5825 and 18456/ 5585 levels, respectively.
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ‘200-day SMA’ are placed at
19359/ 5866 and 19172 / 5814, respectively.
Source: Falcon:
The weekly ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillators, the ‘ADX (9)
indicator and ‘5 & 20 EMA’ are now signaling a
negative crossover.
Actionable points:
View
Neutral
Trading strategy:
Support Levels
5566 - 5540
The week started off on a pessimistic note considering
Resistance Levels
5650 - 5686
negativity across the globe. As a result, indices plunged and
closed below the important 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
level of
18636
/
5638. At this juncture, Indices are
marginally above the weekly ’89 EMA’ level of 18456 /
5585. Looking at the hourly chart, it is clearly seen that
indices are oscillating within the ‘Downward Sloping
Channel’ (please refer exhibit 1) and have now approached
the lower end of the channel. Further, the hourly ‘Stochastic’
oscillator is now signaling a positive crossover. Hence, the
possibility of a bounce back from current level cannot be
ruled out. However, this bullish case probability would be
applicable only if indices move beyond the previous hourly
swing high of 18670 / 5625. In this scenario, indices may
bounce towards 18700 - 18860 / 5650 - 5686 levels. On
the flipside, 18467 - 18380 / 5566 - 5540 may provide
decent support for our market.
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Daily Technical Report
June 25, 2013
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Hourly Chart
Bank Nifty Outlook - (11178)
The week opened on a bearish note and the Bank Nifty
continued to remain under pressure throughout the session.
Quite similar to benchmark indices, the Bank Nifty too has
been trading within the ‘Downward Sloping Trend Line’
(please refer exhibit 2). It has now precisely tested the lower
end of the channel. Considering the oversold condition of
hourly momentum oscillators, and the positive divergence in
the RSI, the possibility of a bounce back cannot be ruled out if
index sustains above 11247. In this scenario, the Bank Nifty
may test 11383 - 11420 levels. Conversely, 11134 - 11048
would act as a key support level in the coming trading
session.
Actionable points:
View
Neutral
Support Levels
11134 - 11048
Resistance Levels
11247 - 11383
Source: Falcon:
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Daily Technical Report
June 25, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 30940000
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni
-
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
-
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
-
Technical Analyst
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