Daily Technical Report
November 19, 2012
Exhibit 1: Sensex Daily Chart
Sensex (18309) / NIFTY (5574)
On Friday, our benchmark indices closed at two-month low
below the 5600 mark. Selling pressure in the final hour of
trade dragged indices to break the trading range of 5625 -
5750. Rate sensitive sectors like Realty, Banking and Auto
counters were among the major draggers which led the fall
whereas Teck and IT counters provided some support to the
markets. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor
of declining counters (A=1112 D=1738) (Source
-
Formation
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ’20-week EMA’ are placed at
18630 / 5668 and 18138 / 5505 levels, respectively.
The weekly ‘RSI - Smoothened’ is now signaling a
negative crossover.
Trading strategy:
Despite being a truncated week, our markets have shown a
Source: Falcon:
bigger trading range as compared to previous few weeks.
The week was dominated by the bears and our benchmark
indices breached almost all the intra-week support levels. At
Actionable points:
this juncture, our benchmark indices have precisely closed at
the convergence point of two channels. Hence, Friday's low
View for the day
Neutral
of 18266 / 5559 can be considered as a decent support for
Resistance Levels
5650 - 5700
our market. However, the weekly ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator
Support Levels
5559 - 5515
has now signaled a negative crossover. Hence, we are of the
opinion that a sustainable move below 18266 / 5559 level
would trigger short term pessimism in the market. As a
result, our benchmark indices may slide towards 18194 /
5515 (50% Fibonacci Retracement level of the rise from
17250 to 19138 / 5216 to 5815). This level also coincides
with the
‘20-week EMA’ and is likely to act as an
intermediate support for the market. However, a breach of
this level may drag indices further down to fill the upside gap
level of 18062 / 5448. On the flipside, in case of a rally
during the coming week, indices may face resistance around
18564 - 18751 / 5650 - 5702 levels.
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Daily Technical Report
November 19, 2012
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Hourly Chart
Bank Nifty Outlook - (11336)
On Friday, Bank Nifty opened flat in line with our
benchmark indices. However, selling pressure in the last
hour of trade led the index to close near day's low. As
expected and mentioned in our previous reports, selling
pressure intensified below the 11420 mark. At present the
index closed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of the rise from
11125 to
11719 levels. However,
considering the oversold condition of momentum
oscillators on the hourly chart it is likely that a minor
pullback or sideways consolidation may take place in
today’s session. Going forward, 11413 - 11506 levels are
likely to act as resistance and 11306 - 11252 are likely to
act as support for the day.
Actionable points:
View for the day
Neutral
Expected Targets
11413 - 11506
Source: Falcon:
Resistance Levels
11306 - 11252
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Daily Technical Report
November 19, 2012
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni
-
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
-
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
-
Technical Analyst
Mehul Kothari
-
Technical Analyst
Ankur Lakhotia
-
Technical Analyst
Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd.
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