Daily Technical Report
July 30, 2013
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (19593) / NIFTY (5832)
The first session of week began subdued note in-line with
weak global cues. Indices then resumed to their last week’s
negative trend and gradually moved lower to close almost at
the lowest point of the day. FMCG, PSU, Realty and Banking
counters remained under pressure throughout the day;
whereas the IT and Auto sectors ended marginally in the
positive territory. The Advance to Decline ratio was strongly
in favor of declining counters. (A=819 D=1427) (Source-
Formation
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ are placed at
19489/ 5880 and 18617 / 5627 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ are placed at
19757 / 5922 and 19499 / 5877, respectively.
The daily ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator’, the ‘5 & 20 EMA’
and the ‘ADX (9)’ indicator are signaling a negative
crossover.
Source: Falcon:
Actionable points:
Trading strategy:
Friday’s negative closing was followed by yet another weak
View
Neutral
session as indices lost another percent during the day. We
Support Levels
5800 - 5760
have been mentioning a support level of ’89-EMA’ placed at
Resistance Levels
5886 - 5945
5881. This level has now been breached on closing basis
and is in incremental negative for the markets. On the daily
chart, we are now observing a negative crossover in ‘5 & 20
EMA’ as well. Hence, going forward, we continue to
maintain our view that the Nifty is likely to test its 5800 -
5760 or even lower levels over the next few days. On the
flipside,
5886
-
5945 levels would act as immediate
resistance levels in coming trading session. The coming
trading session is expected to trade with immense volatility
on account of the RBI Monetary policy announcement during
the session.
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Daily Technical Report
July 30, 2013
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Weekly Chart
Bank Nifty Outlook - (10331)
Yesterday, the Bank Nifty opened on a muted note; but the
opening level remained the high for the entire session. The
open and high being the same was the first sign of weakness
for the Bank Nifty. As a result, the index continued its
downward momentum till the fag end of the session.
Considering current momentum, we reiterate that the trading
bias for the next few session is negative and the index is likely
to eventually test the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
(9924) of the rise from 7766 (low of the December 16, 2011
weekly candle) and 13415 (high of the May 24, 2013 weekly
candle). On the upside, 10661 - 10829 levels would act as
strong resistance for the Bank Nifty. The RBI will announce its
monetary policy during today’s session. In case there is no
additional negative measure announced by the RBI, some
pullback/ relief rally may be seen in banking counters.
However that is unlikely to materially affect the overall
negative chart structure.
Source: Falcon:
Actionable points:
View
Neutral
Support Level
10300
Resistance Levels
10661 - 10829
2
Daily Technical Report
July 30, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 30940000
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni
-
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
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Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
-
Technical Analyst
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