Daily Technical Report
July 03 , 2013
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (19464) / NIFTY (5858)
Yesterday, indices opened marginally lower considering
mixed global cues. Markets failed to cross the previous day’s
high and overall bias was on the negative side. As a result,
indices ended the session almost at the lowest point of the
day. Most sectors ended in the negative territory with the
Realty, PSU and Oil & Gas counters leading the decline;
whereas the Consumer Durables and Health Care counters
ended with very nominal gains. The advance to decline ratio
was marginally in favor of declining counters. (A=1132
Formation
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-Week EMA’ are placed at
19326 / 5852 and 18499/ 5598 levels, respectively.
The ’20-Day EMA’ and the ‘20-Week EMA’ are placed
at 19198/ 5797 and 19327 / 5849, respectively.
The 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the
fall from 20444 / 6229 to 18467/ 5566 are placed at
19455/ 5898 and 19689 / 5976, respectively.
Source: Falcon:
The weekly chart now depicts a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ but
the monthly chart shows a 'Bearish Engulfing" Japanese
candlestick pattern.
Actionable points:
View
Neutral
Trading strategy:
Resistance Level
5905 - 5932
During yesterday’s session, indices remained under pressure
Support Levels
5822 - 5749
for most part of the day. In the process, the Nifty precisely
tested the daily ’89 EMA’ level of 5852 but closed marginally
above it. Although the daily ‘5 & 20 EMA’ are now signaling
a positive crossover, the Japanese candlestick pattern on the
daily chart is not encouraging. The pattern is a “Bearish
Harami” candlestick pattern and needs confirmation in the
form of a close below the low at 19347 / 5822 level.
Considering the SGX Nifty a gap down opening in our
markets looks like a certainty and a close below 19347 /
5822 would result in the reversal of the bullish momentum
seen in the last few sessions. In this case the markets may
move lower to test Friday’s low of 19093 / 5749. On the
other hand Monday’s high of 19599 / 5905 is the crucial
resistance for the Indices. A close beyond this level may result
in a move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
(19689 / 5976) of the fall from 20444 / 6229 to 18467/
5566.
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Daily Technical Report
July 03, 2013
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
Bank Nifty Outlook - (11614)
Yesterday, the Bank Nifty too opened on a flat note and
immediately made an attempt to cross the daily ’20 EMA’. As
expected, this level acted as a strong resistance during the
day and the Bank Nifty eventually closed in the negative
territory. Going forward, we reiterate our view that buying in
the Index is expected only if Index sustains above the high of
11753. In this scenario the Bank Nifty may rally towards the
next resistance of
11867
/
11950. On the flipside, a
sustainable move below yesterday’s low of 11590 may trigger
significant pessimism in the index. As a result, the Bank Nifty
may slide towards 11497 / 11367 levels.
Actionable points:
View
Bearish below 11590
Expected Targets
11479 - 11395
Resistance Levels
11753 - 11867
Source: Falcon:
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Daily Technical Report
July 03, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 30940000
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni
-
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
-
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
-
Technical Analyst
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