Technical & Derivatives Report
December 21, 2015
Sensex (25519) / Nifty (7762)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
In our previous report, we had mentioned about the strong
support standing at the September low of 7539.50. In-line with
our expectation, the Nifty’s decline was arrested at the 7551.05
mark on Monday. Also, the ‘Two Points Positive Divergence’ in the
daily ‘RSI’ momentum oscillator played its part as the Nifty surged
nearly 300 points from the low in such a short span.
The weekly chart now depicts a bullish ‘Piercing Pattern’ along
with the positive placement of momentum oscillators. Going
forward, if the Nifty manages to sustain above the 7800 mark
then we may witness a continuation of this move towards 7970 -
8050 levels. On the flipside, 7710 - 7620 are now seen as
important support levels. We believe that the index may remain
range bound in the forthcoming week and thus, due to lack of
trade set up in the index, it’s advisable to focus on individual
stocks. We continue to recommend trading with a proper exit
strategy and avoiding undue risks.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 7710
Resistance 1 - 7800
Support 2 - 7620
Resistance 2 - 7850
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
Bank Nifty Outlook - (16594)
In-line with benchmark indices, the Bank Nifty too opened with
marginal loss on Friday and started correcting from the initial
trades. The Bears were active throughout the session and as a
result, the banking index continued to make lower lows on
Friday and eventually, ended the session with a loss of 0.88
percent. Considering current chart structure, we may see a
correction up to the 50% retracement level of the entire up
move from 16188.05 to 16771.80, which is placed at 16480
level. While on the upside, a strong resistance is placed at the
high of Thursday’s session at 16771.80 and a sustainable
move above this level will lead to a breakout on intraday
charts. Traders are advised to wait for further development to
initiate positional trade in the index.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 16480
Resistance 1 - 16772
Support 2 - 16390
Resistance 2 - 16900
1
Technical & Derivatives Report
December 21, 2015
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.09%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.67%
as market closed at 7761.95 levels.
The Nifty December future closed at a premium of 28.15
points against a premium of 12.05 points. The January
series closed at a premium of 60.55 points.
The Implied Volatility of at the money options has
increased from 12.38% to 12.57%.
The total OI of the market is Rs. 2,41,019/- cr. and the
stock futures OI is Rs. 66,707/- cr.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are UNITECH, SAIL, NHPC, HINDALCO and
RPOWER.
Views
OI Gainers
OI
PRICE
FIIs activity in equity segment was muted. While in Index
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
Futures, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs. 437
MARICO
6286800
66.99
434.90
-1.34
crores with decent rise in open interest, suggesting long
BEML
637500
10.29
1264.70
3.57
formation in last trading session.
AJANTPHARM
894000
8.71
1281.75
-1.82
In Index Options front, FIIs bought marginally of worth
AMARAJABAT
1253400
8.52
857.30
-0.20
Rs. 117 crores with good amount of fall in open interest.
SBIN
78558000
8.43
227.60
-1.77
7900-8100 call options remain active and added fresh
OI, while IV’s also increased, indicating long formation.
OI Losers
In put options, we hardly saw any strikes adding fresh
OI
PRICE
build-up; some unwinding was witness in 7400 and
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
7500 strikes. Maximum build-up in current series in seen
IDBI
39200000
-12.95
88.85
1.48
in 8000 call and 7500 put options. Seeing the above
HINDUNILVR
3801000
-6.44
860.45
-0.60
data we believe one should avoid forming any shorts in
YESBANK
14039900
-4.95
718.90
-0.42
Nifty at current levels, Nifty may breach 8000-8050
HEXAWARE
4026000
-4.82
241.50
-0.19
levels.
INFRATEL
2076100
-4.31
398.85
1.46
Historical Volatility
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP
HV
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
ULTRACEMCO
27.70
NIFTY
0.78
0.85
DISHTV
36.11
BANKNIFTY
0.84
0.86
INFY
28.11
SBIN
0.46
0.42
TITAN
31.78
RELIANCE
0.88
0.70
BAJAJ-AUTO
33.23
AXISBANK
0.43
0.51
Strategy Date
Symbol
Strategy
Status
November 30, 2015
LT
Long Put
Profit Booked on Dec 11, 2015
December 07, 2015
BANKNIFTY
Raito Bear Put Spread
Active
December 14, 2015
HINDALCO
Long Call
Active
2
Technical & Derivatives Report
December 21, 2015
FII Statistics for 18-December 2015
Turnover on 18-December 2015
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1501.69
1064.41
437.28
256522
14484.07
2.32
254701
14107.92
-20.74
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
18095.49
17978.35
117.14
1270371
73283.05
(4.42)
2919524
169249.74
-26.60
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
2948.91
3896.27
(947.36)
1061349
52274.74
1.36
STOCK
FUTURES
469598
23752.23
-7.28
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
2067.93
2084.07
(16.14)
83486
4043.15
5.66
OPTIONS
270502
13936.64
-12.50
OPTIONS
TOTAL
24614.02
25023.10
(409.08)
2671728
144085.01
(1.27)
TOTAL
3914325
221046.54
-23.75
Nifty Spot = 7761.95
Lot Size = 25
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
7800
68.60
Buy
7700
40.20
37.90
62.10
7837.90
19.60
80.40
7680.40
Sell
7900
30.70
Sell
7600
20.60
Buy
7800
68.60
Buy
7700
40.20
55.65
144.35
7855.65
29.40
170.60
7670.60
Sell
8000
12.95
Sell
7500
10.80
Buy
7900
30.70
Buy
7600
20.60
17.75
82.25
7917.75
9.80
90.20
7590.20
Sell
8000
12.95
Sell
7500
10.80
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Dec. Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
3
Technical & Derivatives Report
December 21, 2015
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ACC
1,328
1,339
1,349
1,359
1,370
ADANIPORTS
251
255
258
263
266
AMBUJACEM
192
196
199
203
207
ASIANPAINT
860
870
878
888
896
AXISBANK
425
429
435
439
445
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,435
2,452
2,478
2,495
2,521
BANKBARODA
156
157
160
162
165
BHARTIARTL
315
317
320
322
326
BHEL
164
165
167
168
170
BOSCHLTD
17,946
18,081
18,290
18,425
18,634
BPCL
888
894
905
911
922
CAIRN
127
129
130
131
133
CIPLA
635
638
644
648
653
COALINDIA
312
314
317
319
321
DRREDDY
2,946
2,960
2,984
2,998
3,023
GAIL
333
336
341
345
350
GRASIM
3,646
3,684
3,724
3,762
3,803
HCLTECH
832
839
852
859
872
HDFC
1,204
1,214
1,231
1,242
1,258
HDFCBANK
1,059
1,066
1,076
1,083
1,092
HEROMOTOCO
2,605
2,624
2,645
2,663
2,684
HINDALCO
78
79
81
81
83
HINDUNILVR
838
848
862
871
885
ICICIBANK
248
249
251
252
254
IDEA
132
134
135
136
137
INDUSINDBK
919
927
938
946
956
INFY
1,065
1,074
1,089
1,098
1,113
ITC
312
315
319
321
325
KOTAKBANK
688
695
701
708
713
LT
1,269
1,278
1,293
1,303
1,318
LUPIN
1,745
1,765
1,800
1,820
1,855
M&M
1,222
1,233
1,246
1,256
1,269
MARUTI
4,554
4,587
4,645
4,678
4,735
NTPC
133
135
136
138
139
ONGC
219
221
223
225
227
PNB
120
121
122
124
125
POWERGRID
132
133
135
137
138
RELIANCE
978
985
997
1,004
1,016
SBIN
222
224
228
231
235
VEDL
83
83
85
86
87
SUNPHARMA
774
782
795
804
817
TATAMOTORS
372
375
380
383
388
TATAPOWER
64
64
65
66
67
TATASTEEL
252
254
256
258
260
TCS
2,384
2,400
2,417
2,434
2,451
TECHM
518
521
524
527
531
ULTRACEMCO
2,751
2,783
2,839
2,871
2,927
WIPRO
547
551
554
558
561
YESBANK
706
712
720
726
734
ZEEL
409
411
414
416
419
4
Technical & Derivatives Report
December 21, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
For Technical Queries
For Derivatives Queries
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