Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open negative tracking the SGX Nifty and some of its
BSE Sensex
(1.6)
(379)
23,410
Asian peers.
Nifty
(1.7)
(125)
7,110
U.S. markets closed lower Tuesday, as hopes of an oil production cut were dashed
Mid Cap
(1.5)
(145)
9,731
and after a miss in the consumer confidence index.
Small Cap
(1.2)
(124)
9,798
Bankex
(2.8)
(461)
15,892
The European markets ended Tuesday's session in the red, after climbing to 3-week
highs in the previous session. Weakness in crude oil prices had a negative impact on
sentiment, as they again failed to sustain recent gains.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets tumbled on Tuesday, as banking stocks resumed their sell-off and
Dow Jones
(1.1)
(189)
16,432
the rupee weakened to a fresh 30-month low versus the dollar on continued foreign
Nasdaq
(1.5)
(67)
4,504
fund outflows and amid anxiety ahead of the upcoming Budget.
FTSE
(1.2)
(75)
5,962
Nikkei
(0.4)
(59)
16,052
News & Result Analysis
Maruti resumes production at two plants in Jat stir-hit Haryana
Hang Seng
(0.3)
(49)
19,415
Future Group to open 20 Big Bazaars in next three months
Shanghai Com
(0.8)
(24)
2,903
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
686
877
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Declines
1,930
661
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Unchanged
148
66
Refer Pg4 onwards
Top Picks
Volumes (` Cr)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
BSE
2,593
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
879
1,040
18.3
NSE
13,393
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
832
1,038
24.8
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
415
592
42.5
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,117
1,414
26.6
FII
(282)
(4,925)
(18,031)
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
156
265
70.4
MFs
25
2,806
78,650
More Top Picks on Pg3
Key Upcoming Events
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Neyvelilig
72
9.8
Feb 24 US
New home sales
544.0
520.0
Bfutilitie
540
6.5
Feb 25 US
Initial Jobless claims
262.0
-
Aiaeng
780
5.0
Feb 25 UK
GDP (YoY)
1.9
1.9
Trent
1,482
4.1
Feb 25 Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
0.4
0.4
Unitdspr
2,579
3.8
6.(
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Mrpl
54
(8.5)
Sreinfra
50
(4.9)
Hindpetro
644
(4.9)
Cox&Kings
157
(4.9)
Hathway
34
(4.7)
As on February 23, 2016
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Maruti resumes production at two plants in Jat stir-hit Haryana
The country's largest car maker Maruti Suzuki India has resumed production at its
two manufacturing facilities in Haryana after two days of suspension due to the Jat
reservation agitation in the state. The suspension of work at the two plants, located
at Gurgaon and Manesar in Haryana, resulted in production loss of around
10,000 units to the company.
The company has resumed production of vehicles at its facilities in Gurgaon and
Manesar starting Tuesday second half. The supply of components has started
gradually. The company had to suspend operations at its facilities from Saturday,
February 20 (second half) as supply of certain components was disrupted due to
the Jat agitation in Haryana.
Future Group to open 20 Big Bazaars in next three months
The Future Group will be adding 15 to 20 stores in the next three months to the
existing 200 stores located in 102 cities across the country. As per management,
the company will keep on adding 15 to 30 stores every year in the next five years.
And company’s goal is to be present in about 300 towns and 6,500 pin codes
across the country. Currently, the group sees a footfall of 330 million across its
stores every year; while a mere 80 million shop online.
Economic and Political News
Odisha Mining Corp eyes 10 mn tonne iron ore output in FY17
IT services revenue to grow at 8-9% in FY17: India Ratings
Gujarat focuses on social sector in FY17 Budget
Corporate News
Havells open to set up production facility in Gujarat
Titan to locally produce spectacle frames and reduce imports
PGCIL arm to set up aluminium conductor unit in Odisha
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,016
879
1,040
18.3
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,343
89
111
24.6
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
26,807
1,117
1,414
26.6
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,17,273
832
1,038
24.8
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,45,006
970
1,262
30.1
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,58,165
1,124
1,347
19.8
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
20,961
415
592
42.5
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
10,561
880
1,089
23.7
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
TVS Motors
13,317
280
330
17.7
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
2,935
326
439
34.5
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,892
150
189
26.3
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,218
156
265
70.4
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,330
100
156
56.1
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
928
990
1,354
36.8
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Feb 22, 2016 2:00PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Feb P
55.00
54.80
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb P
52.30
52.00
Feb 23, 2016 12:30PM
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q F
2.10
2.10
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Jan
5.46
5.40
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Feb
98.10
97.50
Feb 24, 2016 8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jan
544.00
520.00
Feb 25, 2016 7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Feb 20
262.00
--
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
1.90
1.90
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jan F
0.40
0.40
Feb 26, 2016 7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q S
0.70
0.50
Mar 1, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
52.90
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Feb
49.40
--
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Feb
(20.00)
--
Mar 4, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Feb
151.00
--
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Feb
4.90
--
Mar 8, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.20)
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q P
0.30
--
Mar 9, 2016
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jan
(0.40)
--
Mar 10, 2016 7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Feb
1.80
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(11.00)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Feb
(13.60)
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Mar 10
0.05
--
Mar 14, 2016 12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Feb
(0.90)
--
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jan
(1.30)
--
Mar 15, 2016
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Feb
(0.50)
--
Mar 16, 2016 6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Feb
1,099.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Feb
1,202.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Feb
(14.80)
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Feb
0.92
--
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Mar 16
0.50
0.50
Mar 17, 2016 5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Mar 17
0.50
0.50
Mar 22, 2016 3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Feb
0.30
--
Apr 5, 2016
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Apr 5
5.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Apr 5
6.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Apr 5
4.00
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.9
7.5
7.5
10.0
8.0
7.4
7.3
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
8.0
6.3
7.0
6.4
6.0
4.8
4.3
4.2
3.8
6.0
2.8
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.5
4.7
5.0
2.0
(3.2)
-
4.0
(2.0)
3.0
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.2
5.3
54.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
(5.0)
7.50
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
5.3
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.0
2.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.3
1.6
2.0
1.0
(4.5)
(4.1)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
(3.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
42,521
11.7
(8.6)
(11.9)
Russia
Micex
1,822
8.7
0.7
1.4
India
Nifty
7,110
(2.3)
(9.5)
(20.1)
China
Shanghai Composite
2,903
(0.8)
(19.0)
(6.6)
South Africa
Top 40
42,949
(0.0)
(8.5)
(8.9)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,217
5.0
(3.7)
(1.1)
Indonesia
LQ45
810
5.5
5.1
(12.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,677
3.4
1.3
(6.2)
Thailand
SET 50
849
9.5
(3.9)
(20.3)
USA
Dow Jones
16,432
3.5
(7.4)
(9.8)
UK
FTSE
5,962
1.1
(5.9)
(14.0)
Japan
Nikkei
16,052
0.2
(18.2)
(10.4)
Germany
DAX
9,417
(3.6)
(15.1)
(16.0)
France
CAC
4,238
(2.3)
(13.3)
(13.8)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
February 24, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
150
-
2,910
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
15.8
13.6
3.1
2.7
21.1
21.3
1.4
1.2
United Phosphorus
Buy
393
480
16,857
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
13.2
11.0
2.4
2.0
20.0
20.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
89
111
25,343
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.2
19.0
4.6
4.2
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,396
2,585
69,340
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
18.6
16.7
5.7
4.9
30.7
29.4
2.6
2.2
Bharat Forge
Buy
769
943
17,894
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
22.3
18.8
4.3
3.6
21.1
20.9
2.4
2.1
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
19,004
20,044
51,617
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
40.9
31.8
14.9
11.0
36.2
34.3
3.2
3.0
Gabriel India
Buy
80
101
1,144
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
17.3
14.8
3.1
2.8
18.1
18.9
0.8
0.7
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,660
2,864
53,123
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
17.0
15.8
6.8
5.8
39.9
36.4
1.7
1.6
Jamna Auto Industries Buy
128
160
1,021
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
16.8
13.9
4.3
3.5
25.4
25.2
0.9
0.7
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
413
-
648
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
11.5
9.9
1.6
1.4
13.5
13.8
0.6
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,212
1,364
75,270
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
22.1
19.1
3.4
3.0
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,493
-
105,501
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
19.8
15.5
3.9
3.3
19.4
21.2
1.6
1.3
Minda Industries
Buy
766
1,047
1,216
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
13.9
11.7
2.7
2.2
19.3
18.7
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
212
313
28,101
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
21.0
17.0
6.7
5.2
35.3
34.4
0.8
0.7
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
365
465
289
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
14.5
11.8
2.2
2.0
14.9
16.6
0.8
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
31
-
419
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
18.5
9.8
1.9
1.7
10.4
16.9
1.2
1.0
Tata Motors
Buy
318
371
91,943
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
12.3
10.8
1.6
1.4
8.0
9.0
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
280
330
13,317
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
30.5
18.7
7.0
5.5
22.7
29.6
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
879
1,040
15,016
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
30.5
23.7
7.1
5.7
23.4
24.1
3.0
2.5
Exide Industries
Buy
126
162
10,736
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
19.1
17.3
2.4
2.2
12.6
12.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
163
183
8,302
12,056
12,714
17.2
16.4
23.0
20.3
7.1
8.0
1.3
1.1
17.7
13.6
0.7
0.8
Ceat
Buy
947
1,119
3,830
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
9.5
8.5
1.9
1.6
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
80
-
1,805
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
4.1
4.3
1.0
0.9
25.2
19.5
0.6
0.5
Swaraj Engines
Accumulate
805
919
1,000
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
18.1
14.9
4.2
3.8
23.2
25.6
1.7
1.4
Subros
Neutral
81
-
488
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
19.4
12.1
1.5
1.3
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
154
-
405
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
11.9
10.0
2.6
2.2
21.8
21.6
1.1
0.9
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
37
-
366
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
37.0
9.5
1.2
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Accumulate
1,013
1,157
4,219
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
36.2
64.3
28.0
15.8
1.9
1.8
5.7
11.7
1.4
1.1
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,117
1,414
26,807
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
20.7
18.2
3.0
2.6
39.3
45.6
2.6
2.2
Stock Watch
February 24, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
230
353
7,617
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
20.9
16.7
3.2
2.8
16.2
17.9
1.4
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
95
-
685
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
5.7
7.7
0.5
0.5
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
99
-
24,109
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
9.4
6.9
0.7
0.7
7.0
9.0
0.8
0.8
Blue Star
Buy
326
439
2,935
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
23.8
19.0
6.0
3.9
26.1
25.4
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
138
-
8,659
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
30.7
19.5
2.2
2.0
7.2
10.8
0.8
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
122
-
2,976
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
16.5
15.6
3.3
3.1
21.1
20.6
1.7
1.6
Inox Wind
Buy
229
458
5,090
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
8.6
7.3
2.6
1.9
35.0
30.0
1.2
0.9
KEC International
Neutral
104
-
2,685
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
19.3
12.7
1.9
1.8
10.0
14.0
0.5
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
757
-
9,015
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
24.8
19.3
3.8
3.3
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.1
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,244
-
23,362
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
19.5
14.9
2.5
2.3
13.3
16.1
1.6
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
193
-
30,006
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
21.7
19.1
2.7
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.2
2.0
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
64
-
1,458
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
64.4
21.5
1.6
1.5
2.6
7.9
1.4
1.2
India Cements
Neutral
72
-
2,222
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
18.1
7.3
0.7
0.7
4.0
9.5
0.9
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
474
605
3,313
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
7.5
28.5
63.2
16.6
1.9
1.7
7.5
22.9
1.4
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
269
-
3,160
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
23.4
9.9
2.2
1.9
9.8
20.8
1.5
1.2
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
166
-
443
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
19.8
6.4
0.8
0.8
4.3
12.5
0.8
0.6
Orient Cement
Neutral
135
-
2,764
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
17.5
12.2
2.5
2.2
13.3
15.7
2.2
1.6
Ramco Cements
Neutral
368
-
8,766
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
24.4
19.6
3.0
2.7
12.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,466
-
36,459
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
45.9
30.3
6.8
5.7
15.7
20.3
4.9
3.9
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
2,814
3,107
77,230
24,669
29,265
18.2
20.6
82.0
120.0
34.3
23.5
3.7
3.2
11.3
14.7
3.2
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
67
-
2,193
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
9.5
7.4
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
449
603
1,261
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
44.2
38.6
10.2
11.6
2.0
1.8
15.4
15.4
1.4
0.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,130
1,310
105,266
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
26.9
21.3
1.9
1.7
8.8
11.2
2.0
1.8
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
156
-
7,549
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
24.4
26.5
3.2
3.0
15.9
12.7
11.7
10.5
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
131
285
544
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
6.9
6.6
0.7
0.7
11.3
10.6
0.9
0.8
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
65
-
3,619
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
21.7
12.3
1.1
1.0
5.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
494
558
2,536
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
20.6
15.5
2.0
1.8
12.1
12.3
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
226
-
1,117
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
14.1
7.3
0.8
0.7
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
560
-
824
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.5
7.8
1.4
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.5
0.5
Stock Watch
February 24, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Sadbhav Engineering
Buy
229
289
3,928
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.2
11.7
27.9
19.6
2.7
2.3
10.3
13.5
1.4
1.2
NBCC
Buy
880
1,089
10,561
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
29.7
22.1
5.3
4.2
24.1
26.7
1.6
1.2
MEP Infra
Neutral
39
-
636
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
30.1
13.0
6.3
4.3
21.2
32.8
1.7
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
82
-
2,885
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.1
3.5
-
-
15.9
10.8
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
43
-
2,603
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
2.7
1.6
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
385
494
91,674
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
10.8
8.9
1.8
1.6
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
133
-
30,622
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
9.9
6.3
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
85
-
6,885
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
5.5
2.5
0.3
0.2
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
163
-
8,845
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
3.5
2.3
0.3
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
28
-
1,781
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
3.8
2.8
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
48
-
8,271
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
9.6
7.7
1.0
0.9
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,051
-
165,956
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
25.6
22.4
4.9
4.4
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
970
1,262
245,006
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
19.7
15.9
3.4
2.9
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
192
254
111,665
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
9.2
7.9
1.5
1.3
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
56
-
10,583
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
6.5
3.9
0.4
0.4
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
83
-
3,989
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
3.4
2.8
0.3
0.2
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
415
592
20,961
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
12.6
10.3
2.4
2.0
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
81
-
2,420
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.2
1.8
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
73
-
14,275
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.1
2.7
0.4
0.3
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,268
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
6.7
5.1
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Accumulate
158
173
123,001
79,958
86,061
2.6
2.6
13.4
20.7
11.8
7.7
1.0
0.9
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
112
-
7,679
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
3.6
2.9
0.4
0.3
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,638
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.6
4.6
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Accumulate
686
767
28,818
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
11.8
9.8
2.1
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
875
-
83,882
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.5
40.7
13.1
11.8
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,801
-
33,601
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
42.8
35.8
20.2
16.6
38.3
41.2
3.9
3.3
Colgate
Neutral
823
-
22,382
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
17.0
15.5
12.4
10.8
99.8
97.5
4.5
4.0
Dabur India
Accumulate
238
267
41,885
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
32.5
29.4
9.8
8.0
33.7
30.6
4.4
4.0
GlaxoSmith Con*
Accumulate
5,629
6,118
23,673
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
33.5
29.4
9.5
8.1
28.8
28.9
4.4
3.7
Stock Watch
February 24, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,200
-
40,850
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
37.4
31.2
7.6
7.0
19.7
21.0
4.1
3.2
HUL
Neutral
837
-
181,008
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
40.2
33.9
44.7
35.8
110.5
114.2
5.0
4.4
ITC
Buy
294
359
236,566
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
24.1
22.8
6.7
5.9
27.7
25.8
6.0
5.7
Marico
Neutral
237
-
30,622
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
22.9
19.0
6.6
5.5
33.2
32.4
4.6
3.9
Nestle*
Buy
5,190
6,646
50,042
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
32.7
28.1
17.1
15.4
55.0
57.3
4.3
3.7
Tata Global
Buy
107
144
6,731
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
16.4
14.0
1.6
1.6
6.8
7.4
0.7
0.7
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
832
1,038
117,273
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
16.2
14.4
3.5
2.7
21.5
18.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,124
1,347
258,165
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
18.9
17.1
4.0
3.4
21.2
20.1
3.5
2.9
TCS
Buy
2,265
2,854
446,322
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
18.5
16.4
7.0
6.4
38.0
38.9
3.7
3.2
Tech Mahindra
Buy
428
530
41,367
26,524
29,177
16.2
17.0
28.8
33.6
14.9
12.7
2.9
2.4
19.3
19.1
1.3
1.1
Wipro
Buy
540
680
133,312
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
14.5
13.3
2.8
2.5
19.2
17.7
2.1
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Buy
306
356
5,622
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.1
12.0
3.7
3.2
26.7
28.5
2.4
2.2
HT Media
Neutral
80
-
1,850
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.2
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.2
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
150
189
4,892
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
16.8
15.1
3.5
3.1
20.9
20.5
2.1
2.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
328
-
12,922
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
14.4
12.0
3.5
3.2
26.7
28.3
4.4
3.8
Hindustan Media
Neutral
258
-
1,891
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
13.4
12.3
2.2
1.9
16.4
15.3
1.6
1.4
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
301
380
190,217
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
13.4
11.7
4.8
4.7
35.5
41.0
1.8
1.6
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
164
175
69,253
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.3
10.2
1.4
1.3
16.2
13.2
2.3
2.2
Hindalco
Neutral
68
-
14,135
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
10.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,124
-
27,176
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
22.7
1.3
1.2
(1.0)
5.6
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
93
-
36,951
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.4
8.0
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.3
3.3
SAIL
Neutral
36
-
14,703
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
23.6
8.1
0.3
0.3
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
73
-
21,657
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
5.7
3.8
0.4
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
253
-
24,615
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
39.8
11.0
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
126
-
23,633
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.1
6.1
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.5
GAIL
Neutral
317
-
40,249
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
13.2
11.0
1.1
1.1
8.8
9.6
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Neutral
214
-
183,472
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.5
6.6
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.4
1.3
Petronet LNG
Neutral
242
-
18,161
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
18.9
18.0
2.8
2.5
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.6
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
363
455
88,062
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
8.5
7.4
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Stock Watch
February 24, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
Buy
951
1,150
307,970
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
10.4
9.3
1.2
1.1
11.8
12.0
0.9
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
618
-
11,650
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.7
21.5
7.8
5.9
55.6
31.2
3.5
3.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
655
856
38,306
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
18.4
15.3
5.4
4.1
34.0
30.2
2.9
2.5
Aventis*
Neutral
4,304
-
9,913
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.4
28.4
5.3
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.4
3.7
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
330
352
33,748
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
22.6
18.7
6.2
4.8
30.8
29.0
3.4
2.8
Cipla
Buy
523
636
41,984
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
19.4
18.1
3.3
2.8
18.4
16.8
2.9
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,078
3,933
52,490
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.4
17.2
3.9
3.2
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
295
-
2,379
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
17.3
14.8
1.7
1.6
10.5
11.2
1.9
1.6
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,217
-
27,246
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
54.1
47.1
16.0
16.4
28.5
34.3
9.0
8.2
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
251
-
2,317
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
26.8
18.5
4.0
3.4
15.7
19.7
2.3
2.0
Ipca labs
Buy
622
900
7,842
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
46.4
22.2
3.3
2.9
7.4
14.0
2.6
2.3
Lupin
Neutral
1,777
-
80,046
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
35.3
26.0
7.3
5.8
22.8
24.7
5.8
4.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
871
950
209,639
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
50.1
32.4
4.8
4.1
13.0
16.6
6.9
5.8
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
58
-
15,687
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
14.3
11.3
1.1
1.0
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
124
146
102,161
87,271
99,297
23.5
23.5
11.8
13.3
10.6
9.3
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.2
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
137
170
71,751
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.4
10.4
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
321
-
128,317
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
26.8
25.7
1.8
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
107
-
38,380
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
18.1
17.2
1.7
1.5
9.9
9.3
1.7
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,831
-
10,265
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
36.0
31.7
9.0
7.4
27.4
25.6
3.5
3.0
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
166
237
1,676
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
19.4
13.1
2.2
1.9
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.3
Finolex Cables
Neutral
237
-
3,629
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
18.7
16.7
2.6
2.3
13.6
13.5
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Buy
463
582
1,069
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
7.9
8.8
1.8
1.5
24.6
18.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,043
-
2,837
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
47.9
31.2
7.7
6.3
17.4
22.1
1.7
1.4
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
270
-
4,895
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
37.1
31.9
4.8
4.4
13.3
14.4
2.9
2.5
MRF
Buy
33,545
45,575
14,227
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
6.1
8.8
2.1
1.7
41.1
21.2
0.6
0.9
Page Industries
Neutral
10,278
-
11,464
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
44.7
34.4
19.7
13.7
52.1
47.1
6.0
4.7
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
395
-
4,743
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
20.5
15.8
5.0
3.9
27.7
27.8
2.7
2.2
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
990
1,354
928
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
11.0
9.5
1.8
1.6
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.6
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
490
-
862
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
15.3
11.9
1.6
1.4
10.7
12.4
0.6
0.6
Stock Watch
February 24, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,135
3,217
1,635
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
8.6
8.0
3.8
2.7
43.6
33.9
0.8
0.7
HSIL
Buy
233
302
1,681
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
15.5
12.3
1.2
1.1
8.0
9.4
1.1
1.0
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
207
-
2,988
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.5
19.7
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
410
614
495
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
9.5
7.4
1.7
1.4
19.9
21.2
1.2
0.9
Banco Products (India) Neutral
95
-
678
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
8.8
6.5
1.0
0.9
11.9
14.5
0.5
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
127
-
78
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
4.9
4.5
0.7
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,000
-
1,492
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
15.8
14.3
2.6
2.2
17.6
16.6
0.9
0.7
Visaka Industries
Buy
96
144
153
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
4.5
3.4
0.4
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
233
-
1,769
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
16.2
12.7
2.5
2.2
15.4
17.1
0.7
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
50
-
545
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
62.3
12.9
1.0
1.0
1.6
7.8
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
127
201
555
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
8.6
6.9
0.8
0.7
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
142
-
565
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
18.4
15.1
3.9
3.4
20.2
21.1
1.9
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
100
156
1,330
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
17.2
14.1
1.5
1.4
8.6
9.6
1.4
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
302
473
660
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
12.1
10.2
1.8
1.6
15.1
15.4
0.8
0.6
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
360
-
2,034
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.0
27.9
5.5
5.0
13.7
17.8
9.8
6.5
Linc Pen & Plastics
Accumulate
175
185
259
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
16.2
13.3
2.6
2.3
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.7
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
153
-
615
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.2
20.3
5.1
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
810
-
29,191
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
12.7
15.1
19.0
15.6
149.9
103.2
1.7
1.4
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
225
-
4,635
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
47.5
2.8
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
84
-
1,990
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.5
13.7
3.2
2.8
22.0
20.6
2.1
2.0
Navkar Corporation
Buy
156
265
2,218
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
27.6
26.5
1.7
1.6
6.3
6.1
6.9
5.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 23, 2016
Market Outlook
February 24, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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