Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Dealer’s Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(1.2)
(324)
27,608
Indian markets are expected to open negatively given the weak global cues.
Nifty
(1.4)
(122)
8,373
US markets declined sharply, reaching the lowest level in 2015 amid worries over
MID CAP
(2.0)
(231)
11,318
the global slowdown.
SMALL CAP
(2.0)
(240)
11,681
BSE HC
0.4
69
18,437
European markets tanked on back of latest US Fed commentary, steep decline in oil
BSE PSU
(2.0)
(150)
7,230
and continued concerns on growth in Greece and China.
BANKEX
(2.3)
(500)
20,957
Indian markets ended in the red led by decline in the banking and oil stocks.
AUTO
(1.8)
(353)
19,192
METAL
(2.4)
(183)
7,470
News & Result Analysis
OIL & GAS
(1.8)
(165)
9,239
Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Omeprazole & Ibandraonate
BSE IT
(2.3)
(270)
11,585
Sodium
Lupin gets USFDA nod for Fenofibrate Tablets
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Sun Pharma announces US FDA approval for XiminoTM
Dow Jones
(2.1)
(358)
16,991
Dr Reddy's recalls Rivastigmine Tartrate capsules from US
NASDAQ
(2.8)
(142)
4,877
Infosys announces Aikido enhanced service offerings
FTSE
(0.6)
(36)
6,368
Refer detailed news & result analysis on the following page
Nikkei
(0.9)
(189)
20,034
Markets Today
Hang Sang
(1.8)
(410)
22,757
The trend deciding level for the day is 27,712 / 8,411 levels. If NIFTY trades above
Straits Times
(1.0)
(31)
3,010
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up
Shanghai Com
(3.4)
(130)
3,664
to 27,860 - 28,113 / 8,463 - 8,553 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
27,712 / 8,411 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards
Indian ADR
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
27,460 - 27,312 / 8,321 - 8,270 levels.
INFY
(4.7)
(0.9)
$17.3
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
WIT
(4.2)
(0.5)
$12.0
SENSEX
27,312
27,460
27,712
27,860
28,113
IBN
(3.6)
(0.3)
$9.4
NIFTY
8,270
8,321
8,411
8,463
8,553
HDB
(2.0)
(1.2)
$60.2
Net Inflows (August 19, 2015)
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
Advances
757
302
FII
3,146
3,436
(290)
(759)
140,210
Declines
2,111
1,226
MFs
1,034
709
325
1,208
59,156
Unchanged
88
36
FII Derivatives (August 20, 2015)
Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
BSE
3,355
Index Futures
1,869
3,640
(1,771)
13,464
NSE
20,480
Stock Futures
4,501
4,158
343
52,575
Gainers / Losers
Gainer
Loser
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
DELTACORP
75
8.4
AMTEKAUTO
64
(28.4)
LUPIN
1,892
5.4
CENTRALBK
87
(17.4)
ITC
329
3.9
VIDEOIND
119
(16.9)
CRISIL
1,980
3.0
VAKRANGEE
127
(16.3)
ALOKTEXT
7
2.8
IL&FSTRANS
102
(12.5)
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Omeprazole &
Ibandraonate Sodium
Aurobindo Pharma has received final approvals from the US Food & Drug
Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Ibandronate Sodium Injection,
3mg/3mL (1mg/mL), (ANDA 205332) & Omeprazole Delayed-release Capsules
USP, 10mg, 20mg and 40mg (ANDA 203270).
Omeprazole Delayed-release Capsules are indicated for short-term treatment of
active duodenal ulcer in adults. The product has an estimated market size of
US$422mn for the twelve months ending June 2015 according to IMS. The market
for the Omeprazole Delayed-release capsules is highly competitive.
Ibandronate Sodium Injection, 3mg/3mL
(1mg/mL) is bioequivalent and
therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD) Boniva®
Injection, 3mg/3mL (1mg/mL) of Hoffmann-La Roche, Inc. Ibandronate Sodium
Injection is indicated for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.
The Ibandronate Sodium Injection is competitive with 4-5 players already in the
market and has estimated sales of ~US$20mn.
Thus, given the competitive landscape of Omeprazole Delayed-release capsules
and small size of Ibandronate Sodium Injection, we think the drugs will not
contribute significantly to sales. We are neutral on the stock.
Lupin gets USFDA nod for Fenofibrate Tablets
Lupin got approval for key anti-cholestrol drug Fenofibrate from USFDA.
Fenofibrate is mainly used to reduce cholesterol levels in patients at risk of
cardiovascular disease. Like other fibrates, it reduces low-density lipoprotein (LDL)
and very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) levels, as well as increasing high-density
lipoprotein (HDL) levels and reducing triglyceride levels. Though the drug is highly
competitive and hence unlikely to contribute significantly to the company, it’s
positive as the approval has come from Lupin's Goa plant, which underwent
US FDA audit and got a 483 with 9 observations. However, we maintain our
neutral stance on the stock.
Sun Pharma announces US FDA approval for XiminoTM
Sun Pharmaceutical today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration
(FDA) has approved its Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for XiminoTM
(Minocycline HCl) extended-release capsules 45 mg, 90 mg and 135 mg.
XiminoTM extended-release capsules are indicated for inflammatory lesions of non-
nodular moderate to severe acne vulgaris in patients 12 years of age and older.
This approval further strengthens the Company’s branded dermatology portfolio in
the US. It expects XiminoTM extended-release capsules to be available for patients
during the fourth quarter of 2015.
The US market is the largest market for the global acne products with about 50mn
suffering from acne in the country. As of January 31, 2015 is a $3.0bn market in
the US branded prescription market. The market is split between oral antibiotics
($1.7bn in sales) or lotions, creams and ointments ($1.3bn in sales).The acne
market is so fragmented that numerous companies are selling hundreds of
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
millions worth of drug treatments. Thus, the landscape is very competitive, with no
dominant leader. The most prominent brand in the US Solodyn has US sales of
US$300-400mn. Thus, the product can garner decent sales from the product.
However given the generic competition, conservatively we estimate the product can
contribute around US$50-80mn to the annual sales of the company, with net
profit around US$25-40mn. We remain neutral on the stock.
Dr Reddy's recalls Rivastigmine Tartrate capsules from US
Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) has initiated voluntary recall of Rivastigmine Tartrate
capsules of 1.5 mg strength from the USA market, following 'Failed Dissolution
Specifications'. A total of 60 bottles of 2952 units are recalled on the direction of
US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). According to a notification issued by
the agency, the batch was manufactured at DRL's Ltd, Bachupally unit and the
recall was initiated under "Class II" classification.
Rivastigmine Tartrate Capsules are indicated for the treatment of mild to moderate
dementia of the Alzheimer's type or Parkinson's disease. According to the US
health regulator, Class II recall is a situation in which the use of or exposure to a
violative product may cause temporary or medically reversible adverse health
consequences or where the probability of serious adverse health consequences is
remote. We remain neutral on the stock.
Infosys announces Aikido enhanced service offerings
Infosys announced three services to help it succeed in its strategy of focusing on
renewing existing businesses and move into new areas. The offerings, together
called AiKi-Do, will focus on Artificial Intelligence, Knowledge-based IT and Design
thinking to help the IT firm's enterprise clients.
The knowledge-based IT service (called Ki) will include developing operating
roadmaps and plans to rationalise existing IT initiatives, curation services to help
companies consolidate and transition operations and their workforce, among
other offerings.
The Design Thinking service offering (called Do) will offer strategic design
consulting and the enablement of the future workforce. Both the services will be
offered by Infosys Consulting, Sikka said.
The Artificial Intelligence services will include the Infosys Automation Platform, a
Service Automation Platform and the other platforms in Infosys Edge unit. These
services will be called Ai, the company said.
In addition, Infosys said it would offer platforms to address the Internet of Things
and application programming interface requirements of its clients. "Ai, Ki and Do
combine into Aikido, the east Asian martial arts, and just as Aikido aims to
understand the forces, and redirect these it into a fundamental strength, our Ai, Ki
and Do services will help combine the knowledge and energy in an enterprise
towards its strategic path and priorities. Currently, we have Accumulate rating on
the stock.
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Economic and Political News
FM Arun Jaitley steps up rate cut pressure on RBI
Cheap imports hurting domestic paper industry
Centre invites comments on revised bid document for BOO power projects
Corporate News
RIL raises $225 million through overseas bond issue
Dr Reddy's recalls Rivastigmine Tartrate capsules from US
Maruti cars turn dearer by `3,000-9,000
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Top Picks
Large Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Axis Bank
Financials
126,941
Buy
534
716
34.0
ICICI Bank
Financials
173,170
Buy
298
370
24.0
Inox Wind
Capital Goods
8,752
Buy
394
505
28.0
LIC Housing Fin. Financials
23,795
Buy
472
590
25.1
Power Grid
Power
71,123
Buy
136
170
25.0
TCS
IT
527,133
Buy
2,691
3,168
17.7
Tech Mahindra IT
53,817
Buy
560
646
15.4
Yes Bank
Financials
30,096
Buy
719
989
37.5
Infosys
IT
261,438 Accumulate
1,138
1,306
14.7
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Mid Cap
Market
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Cap (` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Bajaj Electricals
Others
2,597
Buy
258
341
32.4
Hindustan Media Ven. Media
1,659
Buy
226
292
29.2
JK Tyre
Auto Ancillary
2,561
Buy
113
147
30.2
MBL Infrastructures
Construction
1,057
Buy
255
360
41.2
Radico Khaitan
Others
1,255
Buy
94
112
18.8
Surya Roshni
Others
600
Buy
137
183
33.7
Garware Wall Ropes Others
726
Buy
332
390
17.5
Minda Industries
Auto Ancillary
933 Accumulate
588
652
10.8
MT Educare
Others
548
Neutral
138
-
-
Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
August 21, 2015
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Aug A
(7.10)
(6.90)
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Aug P
53.80
53.70
1:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug P
51.80
51.60
August 25, 2015
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
1.60
--
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
482.00
513.50
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Aug
90.91
93.00
August 27, 2015
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q S
2.30
3.20
August 28, 2015
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
2.60
2.60
September 1, 2015
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Aug
9.00
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
50.00
--
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
51.90
--
September 3, 2015
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Sep 3
0.05
--
September 4, 2015
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q P
0.30
--
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
215.00
--
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Aug
5.30
--
September 8, 2015
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(8.30)
--
September 9, 2015
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
1.60
--
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.50
--
September 10, 2015
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(10.28)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(10.30)
--
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Sep 10
0.50
0.50
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
6.0
5.2
4.8
5.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
3.6
4.0
3.4
7.0
2.8
2.7
6.7
6.7
6.6
2.6
2.5
7.0
6.3
6.4
3.0
2.0
0.9
6.0
0.5
1.0
5.0
4.7
-
5.0
4.5
(1.0)
4.0
(2.0)
(3.0)
3.0
(2.7)
(4.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
55.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
8.0
7.4
54.0
7.0
6.8
7.0
53.0
5.6
5.2
5.4
5.3
6.0
4.9
5.0
52.0
4.6
5.0
4.3
51.0
4.0
3.3
3.0
50.0
2.0
49.0
1.0
48.0
-
47.0
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
30.0
9.00
20.0
8.00
10.0
7.00
0.0
6.00
(10.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
5.6
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.1
2.3
2.0
1.1
0.8
(1.6)
(2.2)
(0.9)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.2
4.8
3.7
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
(1.0)
(3.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
46,649
(9.4)
(15.0)
(19.0)
Russia
Micex
1,696
3.7
2.2
17.9
India
Nifty
8,373
(1.8)
(1.0)
8.4
China
Shanghai Composite
3,664
(9.7)
(21.9)
63.6
South Africa
Top 40
44,149
(6.8)
(8.0)
(4.4)
Mexico
Mexbol
43,037
(5.2)
(4.1)
(4.9)
Indonesia
LQ45
748
(12.0)
(19.1)
(16.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,577
(9.1)
(12.1)
(15.6)
Thailand
SET 50
890
(8.5)
(11.2)
(12.9)
USA
Dow Jones
16,991
(5.2)
(7.1)
(0.3)
UK
FTSE
6,368
(5.9)
(9.2)
(6.0)
Japan
Nikkei
20,034
(4.7)
(3.1)
29.0
Germany
DAX
10,432
(10.1)
(12.1)
12.0
France
CAC
4,784
(6.3)
(7.0)
8.9
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
220
-
4,285
2,075
2,394
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
23.2
20.0
4.6
4.0
21.1
21.3
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Neutral
547
-
23,458
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
17.1
14.2
3.3
2.8
21.4
21.3
1.8
1.5
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
96
-
27,221
17,850
20,852
10.6
11.1
3.2
4.3
29.9
22.2
5.0
4.6
16.4
20.8
1.5
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,492
-
72,113
23,842
27,264
19.8
19.6
128.4
144.4
19.4
17.3
5.9
5.1
30.5
29.5
2.6
2.2
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
21,018
22,859
57,047
11,681
15,550
15.3
16.9
358.5
564.3
58.6
37.3
17.6
13.1
29.8
34.9
4.8
3.5
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,634
-
52,596
28,500
33,028
13.8
14.1
144.2
166.3
18.3
15.8
6.7
5.7
36.7
36.0
1.7
1.4
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
465
-
730
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
13.0
11.2
1.8
1.6
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,338
1,493
83,074
40,088
45,176
13.8
14.0
59.6
70.4
22.4
19.0
3.7
3.3
16.6
17.2
1.7
1.5
Maruti
Neutral
4,632
-
139,916
58,102
68,587
16.7
16.9
182.0
225.5
25.5
20.5
5.1
4.3
19.9
21.0
2.2
1.8
Minda Industries
Accumulate
588
652
933
2,567
2,965
7.3
8.0
38.8
54.3
15.2
10.8
2.2
1.8
14.4
16.8
0.5
0.4
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
340
366
269
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.3
12.1
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
221
-
591
594
741
12.7
13.7
8.4
15.8
26.3
14.0
2.7
2.4
10.4
16.9
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Buy
342
432
98,771
267,464
307,211
13.7
13.7
34.6
40.7
9.9
8.4
1.3
1.1
13.2
13.6
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Accumulate
232
255
11,013
11,839
13,985
7.0
8.0
10.8
15.9
21.5
14.6
5.5
4.3
25.5
29.7
0.9
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
1,049
-
17,910
5,101
6,224
17.8
17.6
31.1
39.2
33.7
26.8
8.4
6.6
24.8
24.8
3.5
2.8
Exide Industries
Neutral
160
-
13,613
7,363
8,247
13.7
14.5
6.6
7.7
24.3
20.8
3.1
2.8
12.6
13.3
1.6
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
195
-
9,913
12,428
13,262
16.8
16.4
21.9
21.1
8.9
9.2
1.5
1.3
17.0
14.1
0.9
0.9
Ceat
Accumulate
1,123
1,203
4,544
6,041
6,770
14.3
14.1
101.5
120.3
11.1
9.3
2.2
1.8
20.0
19.6
0.9
0.8
JK Tyres
Buy
113
147
2,561
7,446
7,942
15.2
14.7
19.6
21.0
5.8
5.4
1.5
1.2
25.2
21.7
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
950
-
1,180
593
677
14.5
14.8
51.2
60.8
18.6
15.6
4.3
3.9
23.3
24.8
1.8
1.6
Subros
Neutral
90
-
539
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
24.3
13.6
1.6
1.5
6.8
11.4
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
199
-
522
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.4
12.9
3.4
2.8
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.3
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
45
-
441
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
44.6
11.4
1.4
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,317
-
5,483
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
45.1
20.5
2.5
2.3
5.7
11.7
1.8
1.4
BGR Energy
Neutral
128
-
924
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.7
10.3
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
253
-
62,010
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
24.1
17.8
1.8
1.7
7.0
9.0
1.9
1.8
Blue Star
Accumulate
360
387
3,237
3,649
4,209
5.0
5.9
9.2
14.7
39.4
24.4
7.1
6.7
9.1
17.5
1.0
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
179
204
11,247
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
39.9
25.3
2.8
2.6
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
394
505
8,752
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
14.8
12.5
4.4
3.3
35.0
30.0
1.9
1.5
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
138
-
3,536
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
25.5
16.8
2.6
2.3
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
1,029
-
12,262
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
33.7
26.2
5.2
4.5
15.0
17.0
1.9
1.6
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
1,412
1,548
26,500
11,856
14,092
14.5
17.8
47.6
76.1
29.7
18.6
3.1
2.8
10.6
15.7
2.1
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
224
-
34,747
10,569
12,022
20.7
22.2
8.7
10.7
25.7
20.9
3.3
3.1
13.0
15.2
2.9
2.5
India Cements
Buy
83
112
2,562
4,716
5,133
15.9
16.9
3.7
7.5
22.5
11.1
0.8
0.8
3.8
7.3
0.8
0.7
JK Cement
Buy
660
767
4,612
4,056
4,748
14.5
17.0
22.6
41.1
29.2
16.1
2.6
2.3
9.3
15.3
1.6
1.3
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
354
430
4,169
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
30.8
13.0
2.9
2.5
9.8
20.8
1.8
1.5
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
250
-
667
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
29.8
9.6
1.3
1.2
4.3
12.5
1.0
0.8
Orient Cement
Accumulate
172
183
3,527
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
22.4
15.5
3.2
2.8
13.3
15.7
2.6
1.9
Ramco Cements
Neutral
356
-
8,464
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
23.5
18.9
2.9
2.6
12.9
14.3
2.6
2.2
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,065
-
38,547
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
48.5
32.0
7.1
6.0
15.7
20.3
5.1
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Accumulate
3,049
3,282
83,672
27,562
31,548
20.4
22.3
111.9
143.3
27.3
21.3
3.9
3.3
15.2
16.8
3.1
2.7
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
102
-
2,520
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
1.0
5.0
102.2
20.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
3.8
3.7
KNR Constructions
Neutral
562
-
1,564
915
1,479
14.3
13.9
20.3
37.2
27.7
15.1
2.5
2.2
9.6
15.6
1.8
1.2
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,782
2,013
165,855
68,920
82,446
10.9
11.5
57.0
73.0
31.3
24.4
2.9
2.7
13.6
15.5
2.6
2.2
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
188
-
9,101
740
843
53.1
53.6
8.0
10.0
23.5
18.8
3.7
2.9
20.4
19.4
11.9
10.0
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
255
360
1,057
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
13.4
12.8
1.4
1.3
11.3
10.6
1.2
1.0
PNC Infratech
Neutral
510
-
2,617
1,798
2,132
13.2
13.5
22.0
30.0
23.2
17.0
2.1
1.9
11.5
11.4
1.6
1.3
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
88
-
5,048
8,859
9,817
3.0
3.0
23.7
30.1
3.7
2.9
0.5
0.4
10.6
12.3
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
534
716
126,941
26,522
31,625
3.6
3.6
36.2
45.4
14.8
11.8
2.9
2.5
18.2
19.6
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
201
-
44,484
18,934
21,374
2.0
2.0
13.2
15.1
15.2
13.3
1.1
1.0
7.1
7.7
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
170
-
11,274
17,402
20,003
2.0
2.1
40.3
50.7
4.2
3.3
0.4
0.4
9.0
10.4
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
326
-
16,801
15,805
17,745
2.0
2.2
64.3
73.5
5.1
4.4
0.6
0.5
10.8
11.3
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
45
-
2,500
3,580
4,040
2.1
2.2
8.4
10.9
5.3
4.1
0.5
0.4
6.8
8.4
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
67
-
11,404
3,522
4,045
3.2
3.2
12.2
14.1
5.5
4.7
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.4
-
-
HDFC
Accumulate
1,248
1,343
196,748
11,198
13,321
3.5
3.5
45.1
53.7
27.7
23.2
5.7
5.1
27.2
28.2
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,075
1,255
270,128
38,629
47,500
4.5
4.7
52.6
66.4
20.4
16.2
3.7
3.2
19.6
21.2
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
298
370
173,170
36,037
41,647
3.5
3.6
22.9
26.7
13.0
11.2
2.2
1.9
15.7
15.9
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
67
-
10,666
9,806
11,371
1.7
1.9
10.0
16.3
6.7
4.1
0.5
0.4
6.8
10.4
-
-
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Financials
Indian Bank
Neutral
142
-
6,839
6,454
7,321
2.5
2.6
26.4
33.3
5.4
4.3
0.5
0.4
8.1
9.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
472
590
23,795
2,934
3,511
2.3
2.3
30.9
36.8
15.3
12.8
2.5
2.1
16.8
17.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
163
-
4,874
7,930
8,852
2.5
2.5
51.8
57.1
3.1
2.9
0.4
0.3
9.3
9.5
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
159
-
29,460
24,160
27,777
2.9
3.0
18.5
24.6
8.6
6.5
0.8
0.7
8.8
10.8
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
-
3,038
1,999
2,249
2.4
2.4
3.5
4.0
6.5
5.6
0.8
0.7
12.6
13.1
-
-
St Bk of India
Accumulate
270
285
204,628
86,900
100,550
3.1
3.1
22.1
27.7
12.3
9.8
1.5
1.3
12.7
14.3
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
201
-
12,792
12,995
14,782
2.4
2.4
32.3
40.9
6.2
4.9
0.7
0.6
10.7
12.3
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
38
-
3,299
3,474
3,932
1.8
1.9
5.9
7.2
6.5
5.3
0.6
0.5
8.1
9.3
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
719
989
30,096
7,006
8,825
3.1
3.3
61.4
77.1
11.7
9.3
2.2
1.8
20.1
21.3
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
883
-
84,740
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
50.0
41.1
13.3
11.9
29.4
31.2
5.0
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
3,224
-
38,680
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
68.3
49.2
22.7
21.5
38.3
41.2
4.6
4.0
Colgate
Neutral
1,997
-
27,152
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
41.2
37.5
30.2
26.3
99.8
97.5
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
297
-
52,213
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
40.5
36.7
12.2
9.9
33.7
30.6
5.5
5.0
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,211
-
26,120
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
36.9
32.5
10.5
8.9
28.8
28.9
4.9
4.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,308
-
44,532
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
40.8
34.1
8.3
7.7
19.7
21.0
4.5
3.5
HUL
Neutral
874
-
189,020
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
42.0
35.4
46.7
37.3
110.5
114.2
5.2
4.7
ITC
Buy
329
409
263,888
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
23.6
20.7
7.9
7.0
34.1
33.8
6.1
5.5
Marico
Neutral
424
-
27,365
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
40.9
33.9
11.9
9.9
33.2
32.4
4.1
3.5
Nestle*
Accumulate
6,149
6,646
59,285
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
38.7
33.3
20.2
18.2
55.0
57.3
5.1
4.4
Tata Global
Accumulate
133
152
8,381
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
20.5
17.5
2.0
2.0
6.8
7.4
0.9
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
962
1,132
135,185
42,038
47,503
23.5
23.5
56.4
62.9
17.1
15.3
4.0
3.0
23.2
19.8
2.8
2.3
Infosys
Accumulate
1,138
1,306
261,438
60,250
66,999
28.0
28.0
58.3
63.7
19.5
17.9
4.1
3.5
20.9
19.7
3.7
3.1
TCS
Buy
2,691
3,168
527,133
108,420
123,559
28.8
28.7
127.2
143.9
21.2
18.7
8.4
7.8
39.9
41.8
4.5
3.9
Tech Mahindra
Buy
560
646
53,817
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
21.3
17.5
3.8
3.3
17.9
18.6
1.9
1.6
Wipro
Buy
576
719
142,199
52,414
58,704
23.7
23.8
38.4
42.3
15.0
13.6
2.9
2.6
19.5
18.0
2.3
1.9
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
326
356
5,986
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
15.0
12.7
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
87
-
2,018
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.9
10.1
0.9
0.9
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
139
156
4,557
1,939
2,122
26.0
26.0
8.3
9.2
16.8
15.2
2.9
2.6
17.5
17.1
2.3
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
344
-
13,557
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.1
12.6
3.7
3.4
26.7
28.3
4.6
4.0
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Media
Hindustan Media
Buy
226
292
1,659
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
11.8
10.8
1.9
1.7
16.4
15.3
1.3
1.2
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
350
450
221,104
77,595
89,628
22.9
24.4
27.6
30.0
12.7
11.7
5.5
5.5
33.9
33.2
2.1
1.9
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
139
-
58,859
15,546
16,821
47.5
49.0
19.7
20.3
7.1
6.9
1.2
1.0
17.2
16.6
1.5
1.1
Hindalco
Neutral
85
-
17,552
112,328
119,817
7.7
7.9
16.3
20.1
5.2
4.2
0.4
0.4
8.0
8.5
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
961
-
23,231
48,125
53,595
18.8
21.0
46.9
97.5
20.5
9.9
1.0
0.9
4.4
9.5
1.3
1.2
NMDC
Neutral
94
-
37,249
12,544
13,330
59.5
59.7
16.3
16.5
5.8
5.7
1.0
1.0
5.1
9.9
1.7
1.7
SAIL
Neutral
56
-
23,190
56,365
63,383
6.9
8.0
7.1
8.2
7.9
6.9
0.5
0.5
7.0
7.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
99
-
29,232
81,842
88,430
30.6
32.8
20.2
25.7
4.9
3.8
0.4
0.3
7.5
8.5
0.7
0.5
Tata Steel
Neutral
242
-
23,469
136,805
149,228
11.3
11.9
26.4
36.8
9.2
6.6
0.7
0.7
6.0
8.0
0.7
0.6
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
142
-
26,698
12,617
14,513
33.7
40.0
25.5
27.7
5.6
5.1
0.4
0.4
7.4
7.7
0.8
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
321
-
40,661
75,595
85,554
8.6
8.0
31.8
36.1
10.1
8.9
1.1
1.0
10.7
11.4
0.7
0.6
ONGC
Neutral
256
-
218,935
174,773
192,517
22.7
24.8
34.6
38.2
7.4
6.7
1.1
1.0
14.2
14.9
1.4
1.2
Petronet LNG
Buy
179
210
13,440
39,007
40,785
3.8
4.2
9.2
11.0
19.6
16.3
2.2
2.0
11.6
12.7
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
919
1,050
297,537
339,083
384,014
7.8
9.5
75.7
94.5
12.2
9.7
1.2
1.2
10.7
12.2
1.2
1.1
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
717
-
13,520
2,601
3,115
21.2
20.2
20.8
23.9
34.5
30.0
11.1
8.4
37.2
31.8
5.2
4.3
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
798
-
46,627
14,435
16,600
22.6
22.6
36.1
41.2
22.1
19.4
6.6
5.0
34.5
29.3
3.6
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,089
-
9,417
2,156
2,455
15.1
16.8
109.7
133.9
37.3
30.5
5.1
4.2
18.4
22.5
4.1
3.4
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
1,938
-
39,685
10,224
11,840
20.0
21.0
71.0
85.6
27.3
22.6
7.3
5.8
30.1
28.5
4.0
3.3
Cipla
Neutral
691
-
55,523
14,051
16,515
20.4
18.7
26.6
28.4
26.0
24.3
4.4
3.7
18.2
16.5
3.9
3.3
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
4,297
-
73,258
17,903
20,842
22.7
22.8
160.5
189.5
26.8
22.7
5.4
4.5
22.2
21.7
4.0
3.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
220
308
1,775
1,716
1,888
20.2
20.2
16.3
21.6
13.5
10.2
1.3
1.1
9.7
11.7
1.2
1.0
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,597
-
30,466
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
60.5
52.7
17.8
18.3
28.5
34.3
10.1
9.2
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
348
-
3,204
1,088
1,262
18.2
18.2
13.1
15.5
26.5
22.4
5.2
4.3
21.2
21.1
3.0
2.6
Ipca labs
Neutral
847
-
10,683
3,507
4,078
17.6
18.6
25.8
32.0
32.8
26.5
4.2
3.7
13.8
14.9
3.3
2.8
Lupin
Neutral
1,892
-
85,131
14,864
17,244
26.9
26.9
62.1
71.1
30.5
26.6
7.4
5.9
27.4
24.6
5.5
4.6
Sun Pharma
Neutral
936
-
225,158
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
53.8
34.8
5.1
4.4
13.0
16.6
7.5
6.2
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
68
-
18,256
38,302
38,404
14.1
13.1
5.1
6.0
13.1
11.3
1.3
1.2
9.2
10.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
125
157
103,192
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
10.7
9.5
1.2
1.1
11.4
12.1
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
136
170
71,123
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.3
10.3
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
379
-
151,641
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
31.6
30.4
2.2
2.0
6.9
6.7
2.1
1.9
Idea Cellular
Accumulate
157
171
56,482
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
26.6
25.3
2.4
2.2
9.9
9.3
2.2
2.1
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,848
-
10,301
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
36.1
31.8
9.0
7.4
27.4
25.6
3.5
3.0
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
258
341
2,597
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
30.1
20.4
3.4
3.0
11.4
14.8
0.5
0.5
Finolex Cables
Neutral
253
-
3,868
2,728
3,036
10.8
11.0
14.4
16.8
17.6
15.1
2.7
2.3
15.2
15.3
1.2
1.0
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
610
655
1,406
1,953
1,766
12.4
12.0
67.4
59.6
9.0
10.2
2.3
1.9
27.7
20.2
0.5
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
1,357
-
3,690
1,806
2,112
9.0
9.2
28.6
29.1
47.5
46.7
11.8
9.5
28.1
22.6
2.1
1.8
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
318
-
5,752
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
43.6
37.5
5.6
5.2
13.3
14.4
3.4
2.9
MRF
Neutral
43,349
-
18,385
20,727
14,841
19.3
18.6
4,905.8
3,351.9
8.8
12.9
2.8
2.3
37.6
19.6
0.8
1.1
Page Industries
Neutral
14,597
-
16,281
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
63.5
48.8
28.0
19.5
52.1
47.1
8.5
6.6
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
536
-
6,438
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
27.9
21.4
6.8
5.3
27.7
27.8
3.7
3.0
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,085
1,221
1,017
1,653
1,873
11.7
12.2
99.3
122.1
10.9
8.9
2.0
1.7
19.5
20.2
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
820
-
1,441
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
25.6
20.0
2.6
2.3
10.7
12.4
1.1
1.0
Tree House
Neutral
414
-
1,752
259
324
56.8
56.8
17.0
21.7
24.3
19.1
2.5
2.2
10.1
11.5
6.7
5.5
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
3,029
3,210
2,319
2,127
2,388
15.2
14.9
237.7
267.5
12.7
11.3
5.4
3.9
51.7
39.8
1.2
1.0
HSIL
Buy
290
434
2,095
2,085
2,436
18.5
18.6
21.7
28.9
13.4
10.0
1.3
1.2
10.0
12.1
1.1
0.9
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
285
-
4,120
2,634
3,252
10.1
12.0
10.9
17.4
26.1
16.3
2.9
2.6
11.4
16.8
1.2
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
670
797
809
563
671
22.1
22.9
51.0
66.5
13.1
10.1
2.7
2.2
23.1
24.1
1.6
1.3
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
144
-
1,029
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
13.4
9.9
1.5
1.4
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
177
-
109
1,007
1,114
3.1
3.1
23.7
28.2
7.5
6.3
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.6
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,015
-
1,514
1,948
2,147
10.6
10.3
60.0
67.0
16.9
15.2
2.6
2.3
16.8
16.1
0.8
0.7
Visaka Industries
Neutral
171
-
272
1,158
1,272
8.6
9.5
23.7
32.7
7.2
5.2
0.7
0.7
10.1
12.5
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
300
-
2,284
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.9
16.4
3.2
2.8
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
77
87
843
1,452
1,596
14.0
14.7
4.4
6.2
17.5
12.4
1.5
1.3
8.6
11.2
0.9
0.7
Surya Roshni
Buy
137
183
600
2,992
3,223
8.3
8.5
14.7
18.3
9.3
7.5
0.9
0.8
9.8
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
138
-
548
275
355
18.3
17.3
7.4
8.8
18.6
15.6
3.8
3.3
20.2
21.1
1.9
1.4
Radico Khaitan
Buy
94
112
1,255
1,565
1,687
11.9
12.4
5.4
6.6
17.4
14.3
1.4
1.3
8.0
9.0
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
298
390
652
875
983
10.4
10.6
23.1
27.8
12.9
10.7
1.8
1.6
14.1
14.8
0.8
0.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 20, 2015
Market Outlook
August 21, 2015
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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