Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian market is expected to open in green tracking SGX Nifty & other global peers.
BSE Sensex
0.5
131
24,682
Nifty
0.5
38
7,499
U.S. markets moved up on Wednesday, with S&P 500 and Dow reaching new highs
Mid Cap
(0.4)
(42)
10,180
of 2016, after Fed kept its key interest rates unchanged and downgraded its forecast
Small Cap
(0.2)
(17)
10,239
for number of rate increases to 2 in 2016 from the earlier projected 4. Also, U.S.
inflation increased more than expected in Feb as rents and medical costs maintained
Bankex
0.9
154
17,603
their upward trend. Further, housing market continued its strength last month and
manufacturing stabilized. Rise in energy shares, as oil futures climbed up on hopes
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
of output freeze, lifted up the S&P 500.
Dow Jones
0.4
74
17,326
FTSE 100 moved upwards, helped by upward movement seen across oil giants, BP
Nasdaq
0.7
35
4,764
and Royal Dutch Shell. Movement in the Energy companies was owing to run-up in
FTSE
0.6
36
6,175
the oil prices.
Nikkei
(0.8)
(143)
16,974
Indian markets bounced back in the last hour of trade with Nifty reclaiming 7,500
Hang Seng
(0.2)
(31)
20,258
intraday mark on Wednesday, ahead of the outcome of Fed's meeting. Private sector
Shanghai Com
0.2
6
2,870
banks, FMCG and select technology stocks helped the market re-bound.
News & Result Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
M-Life wins arbitrage case relating to acquisition of property
Advances
1,150
506
OVL, IOC consortium to buy Russian oil fields for $4.2bn
Declines
1,435
1,037
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
161
79
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
2,369
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
NSE
14,528
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
FII
(27)
11,238
(22,610)
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
901
1,040
15.4
MFs
(275)
(3,364)
77,282
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
815
1,038
27.4
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
446
592
32.7
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Buy
1,065
1,414
32.8
Aloktext
5
20.0
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
168
265
58.1
Den
96
15.2
More Top Picks on Pg4
Persistent
663
8.3
Key Upcoming Events
Hathway
40
6.9
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Alstomt&D
420
6.0
Reading
Expectations
Mar 17 EUR
Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
0.7%
0.7%
Mar 17 GBP
Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
0.50%
0.50%
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Mar 17 USD
Initial Jobless Claims
259k
268k
Rajeshexpo
573
(11.7)
Mar 17 USD
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
-2.8
-1.7
Eichermot
18,703
(4.3)
6.(
Punjlloyd
22
(3.7)
Wabag
508
(3.5)
Finolexind
357
(3.3)
As on March 16, 2016
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
M-Life wins arbitrage case relating to acquisition of property
M-Lifespace (M-Life) has informed that it has won favourable arbitrage ruling with
regards to the acquisition of South Mumbai property. Since 2011, M-Life is
pursuing arbitration proceedings with Orbit Corp., Rishi Gagan Trust & others
(‘vendors”), with regards to this property acquisition.
Earlier M-Life had acquired the redevelopment rights to this property on closing
the deal which was valued at `270cr. Of the total transaction, already `100cr of
the payment has been made.
With such favourable ruling, M-Life can go ahead with the acquisition of this
13,000 sq ft. property. The company is waiting to start the re-development activity
before obligations are completed by the vendors.
Also, in another development, M-Life is planning to build 300 acres industrial park
near Ahmedabad, Gujarat. All the approvals with regard to this project are in
place. Currently this project is in advanced stages and is in the land pooling
phase. This project would be majorly manufacturing hub, with homes for medium
and junior management workers.
This would be company’s fourth industrial park project, after their flagship
Chennai SEZ project, North Chennai project (work is yet to start) and Jaipur SEZ
project.
Also, M-Life signed memorandum of understanding with Gujarat government in
2011 for another 3,000acre industrial project in Dholera and is still awaiting land
from state government. The plan is to set up integrated business city at Dholera
special investment region with investment of ~`2,000cr.
Acquisition of Mumbai re-development project and Ahmedabad Industrial park in
our view would take few more quarters to materialise. We do not expect any
material impact from these projects in the near term, except for payments with
regards to completion of the acquisition.
We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with price target of `554.
OVL, IOC consortium to buy Russian oil fields for $4.2bn
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) led consortium today signed
agreement to buy stake in 2 Russian oilfields in Siberia for an estimated $4.2bn
(over `28,253cr).
In Sep-2015, OVL had bought 15% stake in Vankor for $1.26bn. The MoU had
envisaged stake going-up in Siberian oilfield to 26% by paying an additional $925
mn.
IOC, Oil India (OIL) and a unit of Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) signed the
purchase agreement for 29.9% stake in Tass-Yuriakh oilfield from Russia's Rosneft
for $1.28bn. These 3 firms would equally split 29.9% the Rosneft’s stake in Taas-
Yuriah oilfield. The consortium also signed Heads of Agreement (HoA) with Rosneft
for taking 23.9% stake in Vankor oilfield for just over $2bn. IOC-led consortium
also signed another MoU with Rosneft for exploring taking stake in development of
Vankor cluster fields of Suzunskoye, Tagulskoye and Lodochnoye.
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
The IOC-OIL-BPCL deal for 29.9% stake in Tass-Yuriakh oilfield is concluded
agreement, consortium's Vankor deal is initial pact and sale purchase agreement
is yet to be concluded. Similarly, OVL's increase in stake in Vankor too is yet to be
concluded.
Taas-Yuriah oilfield, holds recoverable reserves of 137mn tons, currently produces
20,000 bpd (barrels per day). The output is slated to rise to 100,000 bpd in 2
years, with IOC-OIL-BPCL expected to pay another $180mn as its share of future
capex.
We currently have BUY rating on IOCL with price target of `455.
Economic and Political News
Land Bill panel granted 6th extension
I-T dept eases rules to woo offshore fund managers
Gas-based power plants forego subsidy in reverse auction
Corporate News
Blackstone emerges as strong contender to acquire Mphasis
Idea completes deployment of 4G services in 10 of the 22 license areas
CTU separation from Power Grid under cloud
VST Tillers signs MoU with Karnataka govt.
Financial Technologies exits its 13% stake in DGCX
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,397
901
1,040
15.4
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
27,335
96
111
15.6
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
Bharat Electronics
25,562
1,065
1,414
32.8
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
114,848
815
1,038
27.4
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
260,533
1,031
1,262
22.5
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
265,472
1,152
1,347
16.9
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
22,503
446
592
32.7
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
NBCC
11,497
958
1,089
13.7
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
TVS Motors
13,488
284
330
16.2
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
M
arket Cap
CM
P
T
arget
Upsid
e
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,199
356
439
23.4
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate
IL&FS Transport
2,327
71
93
31.4
cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
4,783
146
189
29.2
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty
Mahindra Lifespace
1,770
431
554
28.4
in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,391
168
265
58.1
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,291
97
156
60.7
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
919
980
1,354
38.2
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
12.0
8.3
9.9
7.8
7.6
7.7
10.0
8.0
7.5
7.3
8.0
6.3
6.7
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
4.8
6.0
4.2
4.3
3.7
5.8
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.5
6.0
2.0
5.0
4.5
-
4.0
(2.0)
(1.3)
(4.0)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
56.0
5.6
5.7
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
4.9
5.0
5.0
54.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
7.50
(5.0)
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
6.00
(15.0)
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
2.8
1.9
1.9
2.1
1.4
2.0
0.6
0.7
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(6.0)
(5.9)
(8.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
47,763
19.1
7.5
(2.9)
Russia
Micex
1,871
9.3
8.0
16.2
India
Nifty
7,499
7.4
(2.0)
(14.6)
China
Shanghai Composite
2,870
1.5
(16.7)
(12.4)
South Africa
Top 40
46,826
5.5
7.9
1.2
Mexico
Mexbol
44,751
3.6
6.8
0.9
Indonesia
LQ45
849
3.0
11.6
(10.9)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,693
2.6
1.4
(5.4)
Thailand
SET 50
883
9.8
8.9
(14.5)
USA
Dow Jones
17,326
8.5
0.4
(4.2)
UK
FTSE
6,175
6.0
5.1
(11.3)
Japan
Nikkei
16,974
5.9
(10.9)
(9.7)
Germany
DAX
9,983
8.4
(3.4)
(16.1)
France
CAC
4,463
8.5
(3.3)
(12.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
March 17, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
165
-
3,205
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
17.4
15.0
3.5
3.0
21.1
21.3
1.5
1.3
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
431
480
18,462
12,500
14,375
18.3
18.3
29.8
35.9
14.5
12.0
2.7
2.2
20.0
20.3
1.6
1.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
96
111
27,335
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
28.3
20.4
5.0
4.6
17.7
22.2
1.5
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,250
2,585
65,097
22,709
25,860
20.9
20.1
129.0
143.6
17.4
15.7
5.4
4.6
30.7
29.4
2.5
2.2
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
809
875
18,833
7,351
8,318
19.9
19.7
31.2
36.5
25.9
22.2
4.6
3.9
19.3
19.2
2.7
2.4
Eicher Motors
Neutral
18,693
-
50,774
15,556
16,747
15.5
17.3
464.8
597.5
40.2
31.3
14.7
10.8
36.2
34.3
3.4
3.1
Gabriel India
Buy
85
101
1,223
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
18.5
15.8
3.4
3.0
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,798
-
55,872
28,244
30,532
15.5
15.9
156.7
168.5
17.9
16.6
7.1
6.1
39.9
36.4
1.8
1.7
Jamna Auto Industries Buy
129
160
1,032
1,281
1,473
11.2
11.5
7.6
9.2
17.0
14.0
4.3
3.5
25.4
25.2
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
425
-
668
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
11.9
10.2
1.6
1.4
13.5
13.8
0.6
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
1,212
1,364
75,298
38,416
42,904
13.7
13.9
54.8
63.4
22.1
19.1
3.4
3.0
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Neutral
3,666
-
110,753
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
20.8
16.3
4.0
3.4
19.4
21.2
1.7
1.4
Minda Industries
Accumulate
936
1,047
1,484
2,523
2,890
8.7
9.0
55.0
65.4
17.0
14.3
3.3
2.7
19.3
18.7
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Buy
242
313
31,950
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
23.9
19.3
7.6
5.9
35.3
34.4
0.9
0.8
Rane Brake Lining
Buy
367
465
291
454
511
11.5
12.0
25.2
31.0
14.6
11.9
2.2
2.0
14.9
16.6
0.8
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
33
-
434
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
19.1
10.2
2.0
1.7
10.4
16.9
1.1
0.9
Tata Motors
Neutral
360
-
103,896
259,686
273,957
13.0
13.4
25.9
29.5
13.9
12.2
1.8
1.6
8.0
9.0
0.6
0.6
TVS Motor
Accumulate
284
330
13,488
11,263
13,122
6.9
8.5
9.2
15.0
30.9
18.9
7.0
5.6
22.7
29.6
1.2
1.0
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
901
1,040
15,397
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
31.3
24.3
7.3
5.9
23.4
24.1
3.1
2.5
Exide Industries
Buy
135
162
11,437
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
20.4
18.4
2.6
2.3
12.6
12.8
1.3
1.2
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
168
183
8,572
12,056
12,714
17.2
16.4
23.0
20.3
7.3
8.3
1.3
1.1
17.7
13.6
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Accumulate
1,079
1,119
4,363
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.8
9.6
2.1
1.8
19.6
18.5
0.9
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
79
-
1,795
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
4.0
4.3
1.0
0.8
25.2
19.5
0.6
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Accumulate
845
919
1,049
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
18.9
15.6
4.4
4.0
23.2
25.6
1.8
1.5
Subros
Neutral
84
-
506
1,293
1,527
11.8
11.9
4.2
6.7
20.1
12.6
1.5
1.4
7.7
11.5
0.7
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
168
-
441
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
13.0
10.9
2.8
2.4
21.8
21.6
1.3
1.1
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
37
-
364
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
36.8
9.4
1.2
1.0
3.2
11.3
0.7
0.6
BEML
Accumulate
1,032
1,157
4,299
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
36.2
64.3
28.5
16.1
2.0
1.8
5.7
11.7
1.4
1.1
Bharat Electronics
Buy
1,065
1,414
25,562
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.5
19.7
17.3
2.8
2.5
39.3
45.6
2.5
2.1
Stock Watch
March 17, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
247
353
8,184
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
22.5
17.9
3.5
3.0
16.2
17.9
1.5
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
102
-
736
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
6.1
8.2
0.6
0.6
10.0
7.0
0.6
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
106
-
26,030
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
10.1
7.5
0.8
0.7
7.0
9.0
0.8
0.8
Blue Star
Buy
356
439
3,199
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
26.0
20.7
6.5
4.2
26.1
25.4
0.9
0.8
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
47
-
2,933
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
10.4
6.6
0.7
0.7
7.2
10.8
0.8
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
123
-
3,010
1,655
1,755
16.6
16.8
7.4
7.8
16.7
15.8
3.3
3.2
21.1
20.6
1.8
1.7
Inox Wind
Buy
266
458
5,902
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
10.0
8.4
3.0
2.2
35.0
30.0
1.3
1.0
KEC International
Neutral
118
-
3,039
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
21.9
14.4
2.2
2.0
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.5
Thermax
Neutral
761
-
9,071
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
25.0
19.4
3.8
3.3
15.0
17.0
1.4
1.1
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,238
-
23,234
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
19.4
14.8
2.5
2.3
13.3
16.1
1.6
1.3
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
206
-
31,938
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
23.1
20.4
2.9
2.7
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.1
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
73
-
1,657
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
73.1
24.4
1.9
1.7
2.6
7.9
1.5
1.3
India Cements
Neutral
77
-
2,365
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
19.3
7.8
0.8
0.7
4.0
9.5
0.9
0.7
JK Cement
Neutral
598
-
4,182
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
7.5
28.5
79.8
21.0
2.4
2.1
7.5
22.9
1.6
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
305
-
3,591
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
26.5
11.2
2.5
2.2
9.8
20.8
1.6
1.3
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
192
-
512
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
22.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
4.3
12.5
0.8
0.6
Orient Cement
Neutral
137
-
2,803
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
17.8
12.3
2.6
2.2
13.3
15.7
2.3
1.6
Ramco Cements
Neutral
390
-
9,287
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
25.8
20.8
3.2
2.8
12.9
14.3
2.8
2.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
11,448
-
39,883
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
50.2
33.1
7.4
6.2
15.7
20.3
5.2
4.2
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
2,974
-
81,625
24,669
29,265
18.2
20.6
82.0
120.0
36.3
24.8
3.9
3.4
11.3
14.7
3.4
2.9
Construction
ITNL
Buy
71
93
2,327
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
10.1
7.9
0.3
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
499
603
1,402
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
44.2
38.6
11.3
12.9
2.3
2.0
15.4
15.4
1.6
1.1
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,183
1,310
110,180
58,870
65,708
8.3
10.3
42.0
53.0
28.2
22.3
2.0
1.8
8.8
11.2
2.1
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
159
-
7,694
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
24.9
27.0
3.3
3.0
15.9
12.7
11.8
10.7
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
132
285
548
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
7.0
6.6
0.7
0.7
11.3
10.6
1.0
0.9
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
72
-
3,980
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
23.9
13.5
1.2
1.1
5.0
8.5
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
488
558
2,503
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
20.3
15.2
2.0
1.8
12.1
12.3
1.5
1.2
Simplex Infra
Neutral
215
-
1,065
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
13.5
7.0
0.7
0.7
5.3
9.9
0.7
0.6
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
565
-
832
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
9.6
7.8
1.4
1.2
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Stock Watch
March 17, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
Sadbhav Engineering
Buy
263
289
4,505
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.2
11.7
32.0
22.5
3.1
2.7
10.3
13.5
1.5
1.2
NBCC
Buy
958
1,089
11,497
5,816
7,382
6.9
7.7
29.6
39.8
32.4
24.1
5.8
4.6
24.1
26.7
1.7
1.3
MEP Infra
Neutral
39
-
631
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
29.9
12.9
6.3
4.2
21.2
32.8
1.7
1.7
SIPL
Neutral
87
-
3,054
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.3
3.7
-
-
16.4
11.0
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
52
-
3,120
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
3.2
1.9
0.3
0.2
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
424
494
101,044
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
11.9
9.8
2.0
1.7
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
143
-
32,961
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.6
6.8
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
96
-
7,766
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
6.3
2.9
0.3
0.2
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
188
-
10,197
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
4.0
2.7
0.4
0.3
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
29
-
1,849
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
4.0
2.9
0.3
0.2
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
48
-
8,306
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
9.6
7.8
1.0
0.9
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,126
-
177,825
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
27.4
23.9
5.2
4.7
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,031
1,262
260,533
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
20.9
16.9
3.6
3.1
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
226
254
131,651
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
10.8
9.3
1.8
1.5
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
66
-
12,464
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
7.7
4.6
0.5
0.4
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
99
-
4,748
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.0
3.3
0.3
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
446
592
22,503
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
13.5
11.1
2.5
2.2
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
90
-
2,684
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
2.4
2.0
0.2
0.2
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
83
-
16,268
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
4.6
3.0
0.5
0.4
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
17
-
2,329
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
6.9
5.2
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
185
-
143,689
79,958
86,061
2.6
2.6
13.4
20.7
13.8
9.0
1.1
1.1
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
126
-
8,682
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.1
3.2
0.4
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
31
-
2,698
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
5.7
4.7
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
804
-
33,812
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
13.8
11.6
2.5
2.1
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
867
-
83,148
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.0
40.3
13.0
11.7
29.4
31.2
5.0
4.3
Britannia
Neutral
2,719
-
32,621
8,481
9,795
14.0
14.1
65.5
78.3
41.5
34.7
19.7
16.1
38.3
41.2
3.9
3.3
Colgate
Neutral
835
-
22,723
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
17.2
15.7
12.6
11.0
99.8
97.5
4.5
3.9
Dabur India
Accumulate
247
267
43,398
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
33.6
30.5
10.2
8.3
33.7
30.6
4.6
4.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Accumulate
5,727
6,118
24,084
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
34.0
30.0
9.7
8.2
28.8
28.9
4.4
3.8
Stock Watch
March 17, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,281
-
43,626
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
39.9
33.4
8.1
7.5
19.7
21.0
4.5
3.5
HUL
Neutral
844
-
182,544
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
40.6
34.2
45.1
36.1
110.5
114.2
5.1
4.5
ITC
Accumulate
322
359
258,912
36,804
38,776
37.9
37.9
12.2
12.9
26.4
25.0
7.3
6.5
27.7
25.8
6.6
6.2
Marico
Neutral
240
-
30,990
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
23.1
19.2
6.7
5.6
33.2
32.4
4.8
4.0
Nestle*
Buy
5,026
6,646
48,462
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
31.6
27.2
16.5
14.9
55.0
57.3
4.3
3.7
Tata Global
Buy
115
144
7,264
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
17.7
15.1
1.8
1.7
6.8
7.4
0.8
0.7
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
815
1,038
114,848
42,038
47,503
21.2
21.5
51.5
57.7
15.8
14.1
3.4
2.6
21.5
18.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,152
1,347
265,472
61,850
69,981
27.5
27.5
59.4
65.7
19.4
17.5
4.1
3.5
21.2
20.1
3.5
3.0
TCS
Buy
2,327
2,854
458,588
108,487
122,590
28.3
28.5
122.8
138.4
19.0
16.8
7.2
6.5
38.0
38.9
3.9
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Buy
466
530
45,085
26,524
29,177
16.2
17.0
28.8
33.6
16.2
13.9
3.1
2.7
19.3
19.1
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Buy
539
680
133,154
50,808
56,189
23.7
23.8
37.3
40.7
14.5
13.2
2.8
2.5
19.2
17.7
2.1
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
312
356
5,735
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.3
12.2
3.7
3.3
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
80
-
1,853
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
10.9
9.3
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
146
189
4,783
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
16.4
14.8
3.5
3.0
20.9
20.5
2.2
2.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
363
-
14,286
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
15.9
13.3
3.9
3.5
26.7
28.3
4.6
4.0
Hindustan Media
Neutral
253
-
1,858
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
13.2
12.1
2.2
1.9
16.4
15.3
1.6
1.4
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
296
380
186,712
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
13.2
11.5
4.8
4.6
35.5
41.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
169
-
71,323
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
9.6
10.6
1.5
1.3
16.2
13.2
2.5
2.4
Hindalco
Neutral
81
-
16,819
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
12.1
7.4
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,198
-
28,956
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
24.2
1.3
1.3
(1.0)
5.6
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
93
-
36,912
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
9.4
8.0
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.3
3.3
SAIL
Neutral
43
-
17,553
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
28.2
9.7
0.4
0.4
2.3
4.1
1.0
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
86
-
25,585
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.7
4.5
0.5
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
299
-
29,059
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
47.0
13.0
0.9
0.9
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.8
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
148
-
27,814
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
7.2
7.2
0.5
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.5
0.9
GAIL
Neutral
339
-
43,052
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
14.2
11.8
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
206
-
176,628
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.2
6.4
0.9
0.8
12.7
13.5
1.3
1.3
Petronet LNG
Neutral
248
-
18,600
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
19.4
18.5
2.9
2.6
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Buy
389
455
94,350
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
9.2
8.0
1.2
1.1
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.3
Stock Watch
March 17, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
1,022
1,150
331,059
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.2
10.0
1.3
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
622
-
11,734
3,274
3,802
26.9
19.4
35.0
28.7
17.8
21.7
7.9
5.9
55.6
31.2
3.5
3.0
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
727
856
42,513
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
20.4
17.0
6.0
4.5
34.0
30.2
3.2
2.8
Aventis*
Neutral
4,294
-
9,890
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
36.3
28.3
5.3
4.3
19.9
25.5
4.5
3.8
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
338
-
34,628
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
23.2
19.2
6.4
5.0
30.8
29.0
3.5
2.9
Cipla
Accumulate
533
605
42,792
13,979
16,447
20.2
18.6
25.7
27.5
20.7
19.4
3.4
2.9
17.6
16.1
3.1
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,155
3,933
53,811
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
18.8
17.7
4.0
3.3
23.1
20.4
3.2
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
338
-
2,727
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.9
17.0
2.0
1.8
10.5
11.2
2.2
1.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,319
-
28,111
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
55.8
48.6
16.5
16.9
28.5
34.3
9.1
8.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
274
-
2,527
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
29.2
20.2
4.3
3.7
15.7
19.7
2.6
2.2
Ipca labs
Buy
532
900
6,710
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
39.7
19.0
2.8
2.5
7.4
14.0
2.3
2.0
Lupin
Neutral
1,749
-
78,780
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
34.7
25.6
7.2
5.7
22.8
24.7
6.1
4.7
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
837
950
201,354
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
48.1
31.1
4.6
4.0
13.0
16.6
6.9
5.7
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
59
-
15,917
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
14.5
11.4
1.1
1.0
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Buy
128
146
105,130
87,271
99,297
23.5
23.5
11.8
13.3
10.9
9.6
1.2
1.1
11.5
12.2
2.2
2.0
Power Grid
Buy
139
170
72,536
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.5
10.5
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Real Estate
MLIFE
Buy
431
554
1,770
697
1,011
14.9
19.3
13.8
20.1
31.3
21.5
1.2
1.1
3.8
5.3
3.8
2.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
340
-
135,772
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
28.3
27.2
1.9
1.8
6.9
6.7
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
98
-
35,411
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
16.7
15.9
1.5
1.4
9.9
9.3
1.6
1.6
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,809
-
10,219
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
35.8
31.6
8.9
7.4
27.4
25.6
3.5
3.0
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
188
237
1,895
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
21.9
14.8
2.5
2.2
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
244
-
3,730
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
19.3
17.2
2.6
2.3
13.6
13.5
1.1
1.0
Goodyear India*
Buy
472
582
1,089
1,800
1,600
11.7
11.5
58.7
52.9
8.0
8.9
1.8
1.6
24.6
18.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,148
-
3,122
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
52.7
34.4
8.5
6.9
17.4
22.1
1.8
1.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
286
-
5,171
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
39.2
33.7
5.1
4.7
13.3
14.4
3.1
2.6
MRF
Buy
33,428
45,575
14,177
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
6.1
8.8
2.1
1.7
41.1
21.2
0.7
0.9
Page Industries
Neutral
11,146
-
12,432
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
48.5
37.3
21.4
14.9
52.1
47.1
6.6
5.2
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
379
-
4,545
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
19.7
15.1
4.8
3.7
27.7
27.8
2.7
2.2
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
980
1,354
919
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
10.9
9.4
1.8
1.6
17.9
17.8
0.7
0.7
Stock Watch
March 17, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral
544
-
957
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
17.0
13.3
1.7
1.6
10.7
12.4
0.7
0.6
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,438
3,217
1,867
2,035
2,252
15.9
15.3
248.6
268.1
9.8
9.1
4.3
3.1
43.6
33.9
0.9
0.8
HSIL
Accumulate
281
302
2,029
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
18.7
14.9
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.3
1.1
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
210
-
3,030
2,403
2,554
8.6
9.9
9.2
10.5
22.8
20.0
2.2
2.1
9.7
10.7
0.9
0.8
Ltd
M M Forgings
Buy
425
614
513
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
9.9
7.6
1.8
1.5
19.9
21.2
1.2
0.9
Banco Products (India) Neutral
99
-
705
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
9.2
6.8
1.1
0.9
11.9
14.5
0.6
0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral
128
-
79
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.0
4.6
0.7
0.7
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,108
-
1,653
1,871
2,031
10.7
10.5
63.2
69.8
17.5
15.9
2.9
2.5
17.6
16.6
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Buy
107
144
170
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
5.0
3.7
0.5
0.4
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
273
-
2,078
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
19.0
14.9
2.9
2.6
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.7
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
57
-
619
1,359
1,482
10.3
13.7
0.8
3.9
70.7
14.6
1.2
1.1
1.6
7.8
0.8
0.8
Surya Roshni
Buy
133
201
585
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
9.1
7.3
0.9
0.8
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
157
-
623
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
20.3
16.7
4.3
3.7
20.2
21.1
2.1
1.6
Radico Khaitan
Buy
97
156
1,291
1,517
1,635
12.7
13.4
5.8
7.1
16.7
13.7
1.4
1.3
8.6
9.6
1.4
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
320
473
700
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
12.9
10.8
1.9
1.7
15.1
15.4
0.8
0.6
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
362
-
2,043
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
40.2
28.0
5.5
5.0
13.7
17.8
10.0
6.6
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
182
-
270
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
16.9
13.8
2.7
2.4
16.0
17.1
0.8
0.8
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
152
-
611
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.0
20.2
5.1
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
802
-
28,895
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
12.6
14.9
18.8
15.4
149.9
103.2
1.8
1.4
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
225
-
4,636
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
47.5
2.8
2.6
0.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
82
-
1,959
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
14.3
13.5
3.2
2.8
22.0
20.6
2.0
1.9
Navkar Corporation
Buy
168
265
2,391
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
29.7
28.5
1.9
1.8
6.3
6.1
7.2
6.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 16, 2016
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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