Market Outlook
January 8, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are expected to open on a Flat note tracking the SGX Nifty and
BSE Sensex
(2.2)
(555)
24,852
Global markets.
Nifty
(2.2)
(173)
7,568
US markets extended the downfall seen over the past several sessions as sell-off in
Mid Cap
(2.6)
(290)
10,849
Chinese markets continued to haunt global markets. The lower Yuan fix resulted in
Small Cap
(2.9)
(341)
11,510
trading being stopped for the second time in four days.
Bankex
(2.4)
(446)
18,284
European markets followed the Asian markets and posted losses as China's Yuan
depreciation led to sell off in Chinese markets. However, the markets ended off their
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
session lows after news broke that China had suspended the circuit breakers to halt
panic and allow a full session of trading.
Dow Jones
(2.3)
(392)
16,514
Nasdaq
(3.0)
(146)
4,689
Indian markets continued the slide for fourth consecutive trading session yesterday
as China accelerated the Yuan depreciation and weakness in crude oil prices
FTSE
(2.0)
(119)
5,954
weighted on sentiments.
Nikkei
(2.3)
(424)
17,767
Hang Seng
(3.1)
(647)
20,333
News & Result Analysis
Shanghai Com
(7.0)
(237)
3,125
Bajaj Auto to launch new products; increase capacity
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
676
622
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Declines
2,230
957
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Unchanged
88
40
Refer P4 onwards
Top Picks
Volumes (` Cr)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
BSE
3,594
(`)
(`)
(%)
NSE
18,650
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary
Buy
840
1,040
23.9
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
824
1,132
37.4
Larsen & Toubro
Construction
Buy
1,206
1,646
36.5
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
LIC Housing Finance Financials
Buy
486
592
21.8
FII
(114)
(653)
19,541
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
201
265
31.7
MFs
358
244
69,283
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Monsanto
2,420
3.1
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Alstomt&D
454
2.3
Jan 8
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
211.0
200.0
Eclerx
1,414
1.8
US
Unnemployment rate
5.0
5.0
Piind
686
1.1
Jan 9
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
1.5
1.6
Jan 11
India
Imports YoY%
(30.3)
-
Naukri
817
1.0
India
Exports YoY%
(24.4)
-
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jindalstel
84
(10.0)
Ibrealest
59
(9.4)
Vedl
81
(8.7)
Jpassociat
11
(8.3)
Cairn
129
(8.0)
As on January 7, 2015
Market Outlook
January 8, 2016
Bajaj Auto to launch new products; increase capacity
Bajaj Auto will launch new products across the motorcycle segments viz in the
budget (100cc), executive (110-150cc) and sports (150cc and above) segments
this calendar year. Amongst the new launches, Bajaj aims to introduce a new
budget motorcycle under an existing brand later this month. It will also launch a
new bike in the `1-2 lakh category under the Pulsar brand.
Further, it will also launch a new bike brand in the executive category this quarter.
The new executive bike will coexist with the struggling Discover brand but will be
positioned differently. As per the company, the new bike will be priced above
`45,000 and below `65,000 and will appeal to a mature customer.
Also, Bajaj has decided to increase production capacity at its Chakan plant to
accommodate the new launches while also supporting the export market, which
contributes to 45% of its total volumes. The capacity at Chakan will be doubled to
200,000 units a month from 100,000 units currently. A likely investment of more
than `100cr will be made for the expansion though the company is yet to duly
finalise the plan.
The company had indicated a market share target of 23% by end of March 2016
in the motorcycle segment. In November 2015, Bajaj's market share in the
domestic motorcycle segment stood at 18%. Bajaj will also be increasing capacity
of Avenger series to 30,000 units a month by March from the current 20,000 units
a month. Further though sales under the Discover brand whose portfolio stands
reduced to two models, 125 and 150 after a rejig, Bajaj Auto hopes that along
with the new model sales should new increase to 70,000 units a month from
20,000 units a month currently. We believe Bajaj is well poised to gain market
share given the new launches. We currently have Accumulate rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
India's exports may dip 13% to $270bn in 2015-16
MUDRA loans disbursed to borrowers: Finance Ministry
MoUs for renewable energy projects to be signed at AP Partnership Summit
Government bats for LED bulbs again, wants mass use
Corporate News
Government not to reconsider Reliance Power plea on output from coal blocks
HDFC to raise new `5,000cr fund to make long term investments in mass
housing
L&T consortium bags `2,450cr ONGC order
Market Outlook
January 8, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
14,342
840
1,040
23.9
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Ashok Leyland
25,912
91
111
21.9
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
HCL Tech
1,16,107
824
1,132
37.4
the bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
2,65,879
1,053
1,262
19.9
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,41,466
1,051
1,306
24.2
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Well positioned to benefit from such expected gradual
recovery in the overall domestic capex cycle, given its presence
Larsen & Toubro
1,12,332
1,206
1,646
36.5
across various infrastructure segments, its execution
capabilities, and its strong balance sheet.
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
LIC Housing Finance
24,511
486
592
21.8
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
3,338
371
439
18.3
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Change in business focus towards high-margin chronic &
Garware Wall Ropes
860
393
473
20.4
lifestyle segments and increasing penetration in Europe and
US
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
Jagran Prakashan
5,437
166
189
13.7
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
Navkar Corporation
2,869
201
265
31.7
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
Radico Khaitan
1,479
111
156
40.3
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,085
1,157
1,354
17.0
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Structural shift in the Lighting industry towards LED lighting will
Surya Roshni
697
159
201
26.4
drive growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 08, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
Jan 8, 2016
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
211.00
200.00
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
5.00
5.00
Jan 9, 2016
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Dec
1.50
1.60
Jan 11, 2016
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(30.26)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(24.43)
--
Jan 12, 2016
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
9.80
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
1.70
1.80
Jan 13, 2016
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(6.80)
(7.50)
Jan 14, 2016
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
(1.99)
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 14
0.50
0.50
Jan 15, 2016
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
%
Dec
(0.56)
(0.05)
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
Jan 19, 2016
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
0.10
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
6.20
6.10
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q
6.90
6.90
Jan 20, 2016
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,173.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,282.00
--
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
3.90
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
--
--
Jan 21, 2016
3:30PM
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
0.20
--
6:15PM
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
%
Jan 21
0.05
--
Jan 22, 2016
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Jan P
56.00
--
2:00PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan P
53.20
--
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Dec
4.76
--
Jan 26, 2016
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jan
96.50
--
Jan 27, 2016
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Dec
490.00
--
Jan 28, 2016
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q A
2.10
--
12:30AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Jan 27
0.50
0.50
Jan 29, 2016
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
4Q A
2.00
--
Feb 1, 2016
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
51.90
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jan
49.70
--
Feb 2, 2016
2:25PM
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jan
(14.00)
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Feb 2
5.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
%
Feb 2
6.75
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Feb 2
4.00
--
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 8, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.4
12.0
9.8
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.4
10.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.6
3.8
5.0
4.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
54.0
4.9
5.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.7
52.0
4.0
3.0
50.0
2.0
48.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
0.0
8.00
7.50
(5.0)
7.00
(10.0)
6.50
(15.0)
6.00
5.50
(20.0)
5.00
(25.0)
4.50
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 8, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
6.0
5.3
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.1
1.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(4.1)
(4.5)
(6.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.3
8.0
6.8
6.0
4.7
4.7
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.6
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(3.8)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
January 8, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
40,695
(9.4)
(9.7)
(19.6)
Russia
Micex
1,749
(2.2)
5.8
18.1
India
Nifty
7,568
(2.5)
(6.8)
(9.9)
China
Shanghai Composite
3,125
(8.5)
(0.3)
0.2
South Africa
Top 40
43,186
(4.8)
(7.4)
0.2
Mexico
Mexbol
40,662
(5.4)
(6.7)
(2.8)
Indonesia
LQ45
786
(0.1)
11.8
(12.0)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,655
(1.1)
1.6
(6.3)
Thailand
SET 50
762
(11.2)
(12.3)
(25.3)
USA
Dow Jones
16,514
(7.5)
(1.6)
(7.8)
UK
FTSE
5,954
(5.1)
(5.9)
(8.4)
Japan
Nikkei
17,767
(10.9)
0.3
(0.2)
Germany
DAX
9,980
(10.8)
1.7
3.4
France
CAC
4,404
(6.6)
(5.7)
4.3
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
January 08, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
169
-
3,286
2,097
2,415
14.4
14.4
9.5
11.0
17.8
15.4
3.5
3.1
21.1
21.3
1.6
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
417
510
17,869
13,698
15,752
17.6
17.6
32.1
38.5
13.0
10.8
2.6
2.1
21.4
21.3
1.4
1.2
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
91
111
25,912
17,995
21,544
11.4
11.6
3.4
4.7
26.8
19.4
4.7
4.3
17.7
22.2
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
2,419
2,728
70,005
23,695
27,298
21.3
20.4
134.6
151.5
18.0
16.0
5.7
4.9
31.8
30.6
2.5
2.1
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
825
943
19,203
7,867
8,881
20.0
20.3
34.4
41.0
24.0
20.1
4.6
3.9
21.1
20.9
2.6
2.2
Eicher Motors
Accumulate
17,036
19,036
46,259
15,379
16,498
15.6
16.6
473.2
574.8
36.0
29.6
13.3
9.9
36.7
33.2
2.9
2.7
Gabriel India
Accumulate
92
101
1,314
1,415
1,544
8.7
9.0
4.6
5.4
19.9
16.9
3.6
3.2
18.1
18.9
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,513
2,774
50,184
28,561
31,559
14.7
14.7
151.1
163.2
16.6
15.4
6.4
5.5
38.7
35.6
1.6
1.4
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
139
-
1,108
1,292
1,486
9.3
9.8
6.0
7.5
23.1
18.5
4.8
4.0
20.7
21.8
0.9
0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
489
-
768
1,254
1,394
11.6
11.8
35.9
41.7
13.6
11.8
1.9
1.6
13.5
13.8
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
1,194
1,449
74,134
39,031
44,440
13.8
13.9
57.9
67.6
20.6
17.7
3.3
2.9
16.1
16.6
1.6
1.3
Maruti
Neutral
4,267
-
128,884
57,865
68,104
16.4
16.7
176.3
225.5
24.2
18.9
4.7
4.0
19.4
21.2
2.0
1.6
Minda Industries
Neutral
870
-
1,380
2,567
2,965
8.0
8.3
46.1
57.8
18.9
15.1
3.2
2.6
16.7
17.3
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
268
313
35,416
39,343
45,100
8.8
9.1
10.1
12.5
26.5
21.4
8.4
6.6
35.3
34.4
1.0
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Accumulate
339
366
268
454
511
11.1
11.4
23.8
28.1
14.2
12.1
2.0
1.8
14.2
15.3
0.7
0.7
Setco Automotive
Neutral
39
-
527
594
741
12.7
13.7
1.7
3.2
23.2
12.3
2.4
2.1
10.4
16.9
1.3
1.1
Tata Motors
Buy
343
409
99,089
266,022
312,667
12.8
13.1
26.3
38.3
13.1
9.0
1.7
1.5
8.4
12.1
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
278
338
13,188
11,569
13,648
7.3
8.7
10.3
16.1
27.0
17.2
6.7
5.3
24.8
30.5
1.1
0.9
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
840
1,040
14,342
4,892
5,871
17.4
17.6
28.8
37.1
29.2
22.6
6.8
5.5
23.4
24.1
2.9
2.3
Exide Industries
Buy
139
162
11,802
6,950
7,784
14.4
14.8
6.6
7.3
21.0
19.0
2.7
2.4
12.6
12.8
1.4
1.3
Apollo Tyres
Buy
149
171
7,564
12,146
12,689
16.8
16.0
21.2
19.0
7.0
7.8
1.2
1.0
16.5
13.0
0.7
0.7
Ceat
Accumulate
1,013
1,119
4,098
6,041
6,597
14.1
13.7
99.5
111.9
10.2
9.1
2.0
1.7
19.6
18.5
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
107
-
2,420
7,446
7,669
15.2
14.0
19.6
18.4
5.4
5.8
1.4
1.1
25.2
19.5
0.7
0.6
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
952
-
1,183
552
630
14.2
14.7
44.6
54.1
21.4
17.6
5.0
4.5
23.2
25.6
2.0
1.7
Subros
Neutral
99
-
596
1,268
1,488
11.6
11.9
3.7
6.6
26.9
15.1
1.8
1.6
6.8
11.4
0.8
0.6
Indag Rubber
Neutral
206
-
542
283
329
17.0
17.2
13.0
15.4
15.9
13.4
3.5
2.9
21.8
21.6
1.6
1.4
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
45
-
441
660
839
4.7
8.2
1.0
3.9
44.6
11.4
1.4
1.2
3.2
11.3
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
1,205
-
5,019
3,277
4,006
6.0
8.9
29.2
64.3
41.3
18.7
2.3
2.1
5.7
11.7
1.6
1.3
Bharat Electronics
Accumulate
1,294
1,414
31,051
7,737
8,634
16.8
17.2
54.0
61.0
24.0
21.2
3.4
3.0
39.3
45.6
3.1
2.7
Stock Watch
January 08, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
289
353
9,571
5,363
5,963
8.0
9.1
11.0
13.8
26.3
21.0
4.0
3.5
16.2
17.9
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
126
-
909
3,615
3,181
9.5
9.4
16.7
12.4
7.5
10.2
0.7
0.7
10.0
7.0
0.7
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
154
-
37,656
33,722
35,272
10.8
11.7
10.5
14.2
14.7
10.8
1.1
1.0
7.0
9.0
1.2
1.1
Blue Star
Buy
371
439
3,338
3,548
3,977
6.3
6.9
13.7
17.2
27.1
21.6
6.8
4.4
26.1
25.4
1.0
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
185
204
11,595
13,484
14,687
4.9
6.2
4.5
7.1
41.1
26.1
2.9
2.7
7.2
10.8
1.0
0.9
Inox Wind
Buy
350
458
7,756
4,980
5,943
17.0
17.5
26.6
31.6
13.1
11.1
3.9
2.9
35.0
30.0
1.7
1.4
KEC International
Neutral
143
-
3,685
8,791
9,716
6.1
6.8
5.4
8.2
26.6
17.5
2.7
2.4
10.0
14.0
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
871
-
10,374
6,413
7,525
7.4
8.5
30.5
39.3
28.5
22.2
4.4
3.8
15.0
17.0
1.6
1.3
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,300
1,630
24,405
13,151
14,757
16.4
18.3
63.9
83.4
20.3
15.6
2.6
2.4
13.3
16.1
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Buy
198
233
30,665
11,564
12,556
19.4
20.7
8.9
10.1
22.2
19.6
2.8
2.6
12.8
13.8
2.3
2.1
HeidelbergCement
Neutral
75
-
1,697
1,772
1,926
13.3
15.4
1.0
3.0
74.9
25.0
1.9
1.8
2.6
7.9
1.5
1.3
India Cements
Buy
93
112
2,849
4,216
4,840
18.0
19.5
4.0
9.9
23.2
9.4
0.9
0.9
4.0
9.5
1.0
0.8
JK Cement
Buy
566
744
3,954
3,661
4,742
10.1
15.8
18.0
61.0
31.4
9.3
2.3
2.0
7.5
22.9
1.6
1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
325
430
3,821
2,947
3,616
16.7
19.9
11.5
27.2
28.2
11.9
2.7
2.3
9.8
20.8
1.7
1.4
Mangalam Cements
Neutral
192
-
511
1,053
1,347
10.5
13.3
8.4
26.0
22.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
4.3
12.5
0.9
0.6
Orient Cement
Buy
150
183
3,071
1,854
2,524
21.2
22.2
7.7
11.1
19.5
13.5
2.8
2.4
13.3
15.7
2.4
1.7
Ramco Cements
Neutral
390
-
9,278
4,036
4,545
20.8
21.3
15.1
18.8
25.8
20.7
3.2
2.8
12.9
14.3
2.8
2.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
10,997
-
38,309
7,150
8,742
26.7
28.6
228.0
345.5
48.2
31.8
7.1
6.0
15.7
20.3
5.1
4.1
UltraTech Cement
Buy
2,666
3,282
73,169
25,021
30,023
19.1
21.6
89.0
132.0
30.0
20.2
3.5
3.0
12.2
15.9
3.0
2.5
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
90
-
2,946
7,360
8,825
34.0
35.9
7.0
9.0
12.8
10.0
0.4
0.4
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.6
KNR Constructions
Buy
549
673
1,543
937
1,470
14.3
14.0
33.5
38.6
16.4
14.2
2.5
2.1
15.4
15.4
1.7
1.1
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,206
1,646
112,332
65,065
77,009
11.5
11.7
61.5
65.6
19.6
18.4
2.0
1.8
13.4
14.0
1.9
1.6
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
153
-
7,411
629
684
51.0
52.2
6.4
5.9
24.0
26.0
3.2
2.9
15.9
12.7
11.4
10.3
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
209
285
867
2,313
2,797
12.2
14.6
19.0
20.0
11.0
10.5
1.2
1.1
11.3
10.6
1.1
1.0
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
73
-
4,036
7,892
8,842
8.8
9.1
3.0
5.3
24.2
13.7
1.2
1.1
5.0
8.5
0.8
0.6
PNC Infratech
Accumulate
524
558
2,689
1,873
2,288
13.2
13.5
24.0
32.0
21.8
16.4
2.1
1.9
12.1
12.3
1.5
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
311
-
1,540
5,955
6,829
10.3
10.5
16.0
31.0
19.5
10.0
1.0
0.9
5.3
9.9
0.8
0.7
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
660
-
971
1,539
1,801
12.8
12.7
59.0
72.1
11.2
9.2
1.7
1.4
18.6
16.8
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
322
-
5,531
3,481
4,219
10.7
10.8
8.0
12.0
40.3
26.9
3.8
3.3
10.3
13.5
1.9
1.5
Stock Watch
January 08, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Construction
NBCC
Accumulate
992
1,089
11,898
7,382
9,506
7.7
8.6
39.8
54.4
24.9
18.2
6.0
4.7
26.7
29.1
1.4
1.0
MEP Infra
Neutral
44
-
717
1,956
1,876
28.1
30.5
1.3
3.0
33.9
14.7
7.1
4.8
21.2
32.8
1.8
1.8
SIPL
Neutral
93
-
3,281
675
1,042
62.4
64.7
-
-
3.5
4.0
-
-
16.5
11.1
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
64
-
3,868
8,569
9,392
2.8
2.9
16.3
27.5
4.0
2.3
0.4
0.3
7.6
11.9
-
-
Axis Bank
Buy
409
630
97,381
26,473
31,527
3.5
3.6
35.7
43.5
11.5
9.4
2.2
1.9
17.9
18.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
140
-
32,143
18,485
21,025
1.9
2.0
13.5
21.1
10.4
6.6
0.8
0.7
7.3
10.6
-
-
Bank of India
Neutral
109
-
8,628
15,972
17,271
1.9
2.0
15.3
33.4
7.1
3.3
0.3
0.3
3.6
7.6
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
219
-
11,889
15,441
16,945
2.0
2.1
46.6
70.4
4.7
3.1
0.4
0.4
8.0
11.2
-
-
Dena Bank
Neutral
39
-
2,542
3,440
3,840
2.1
2.3
7.3
10.0
5.4
3.9
0.4
0.3
6.1
7.9
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
53
-
9,025
3,477
3,999
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.2
10.5
8.4
1.1
1.0
10.6
11.9
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,180
-
186,258
10,358
11,852
3.3
3.3
41.1
47.0
28.7
25.1
5.5
5.0
24.7
24.9
-
-
HDFC Bank
Buy
1,053
1,262
265,879
38,309
47,302
4.3
4.3
49.3
61.1
21.4
17.3
3.7
3.2
18.5
19.7
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
247
354
143,561
34,279
39,262
3.3
3.3
21.0
24.4
11.8
10.1
2.0
1.7
14.4
14.7
-
-
IDBI Bank
Neutral
78
-
12,479
9,625
10,455
1.8
1.8
8.5
14.2
9.1
5.5
0.6
0.5
5.9
9.3
-
-
Indian Bank
Neutral
108
-
5,180
6,160
6,858
2.5
2.5
24.5
29.8
4.4
3.6
0.4
0.3
7.7
8.6
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
486
592
24,511
3,101
3,745
2.5
2.5
33.0
40.2
14.7
12.1
2.8
2.3
19.7
20.5
-
-
Oriental Bank
Neutral
127
-
3,810
7,643
8,373
2.4
2.4
37.2
45.4
3.4
2.8
0.3
0.3
8.2
9.4
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
105
-
20,628
23,638
26,557
2.8
2.8
17.9
27.2
5.9
3.9
0.6
0.5
8.5
12.0
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
20
-
2,640
1,965
2,185
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.3
7.9
5.9
0.8
0.7
9.5
11.7
-
-
St Bk of India
Buy
210
283
162,669
82,520
93,299
2.7
2.8
20.0
24.5
10.5
8.6
1.1
1.0
11.5
12.8
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
136
-
9,346
12,646
14,129
2.3
2.4
31.0
39.1
4.4
3.5
0.5
0.4
9.8
11.4
-
-
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
33
-
2,848
3,536
3,827
1.9
1.9
5.5
6.7
6.0
5.0
0.5
0.4
7.8
8.8
-
-
Yes Bank
Buy
678
921
28,436
7,190
9,011
3.2
3.3
58.2
69.7
11.7
9.7
2.1
1.8
19.2
19.6
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
872
-
83,599
16,553
19,160
16.0
16.2
17.7
21.5
49.3
40.5
13.1
11.8
29.4
31.2
4.9
4.2
Britannia
Neutral
2,940
-
35,267
8,065
9,395
9.6
10.2
47.2
65.5
62.3
44.9
20.7
19.6
38.3
41.2
4.2
3.6
Colgate
Neutral
915
-
24,881
4,836
5,490
19.5
19.7
48.5
53.2
18.9
17.2
13.8
12.0
99.8
97.5
5.0
4.4
Dabur India
Neutral
266
-
46,828
9,370
10,265
17.1
17.2
7.3
8.1
36.3
32.9
11.0
8.9
33.7
30.6
4.9
4.5
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,511
-
27,383
4,919
5,742
17.2
17.4
168.3
191.2
38.7
34.1
11.0
9.3
28.8
28.9
5.1
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,265
-
43,071
10,168
12,886
16.1
16.1
32.1
38.4
39.4
32.9
8.0
7.4
19.7
21.0
4.3
3.4
Stock Watch
January 08, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FMCG
HUL
Neutral
820
-
177,373
34,940
38,957
17.5
17.7
20.8
24.7
39.4
33.2
43.8
35.0
110.5
114.2
4.9
4.4
ITC
Buy
310
382
248,816
41,068
45,068
37.8
37.4
13.9
15.9
22.3
19.5
7.5
6.6
34.1
33.8
5.7
5.1
Marico
Neutral
223
-
28,745
6,551
7,766
15.7
16.0
10.4
12.5
21.5
17.8
6.2
5.2
33.2
32.4
4.3
3.6
Nestle*
Buy
5,645
6,646
54,423
11,291
12,847
22.2
22.3
158.9
184.6
35.5
30.6
18.6
16.7
55.0
57.3
4.7
4.1
Tata Global
Neutral
140
-
8,839
8,635
9,072
9.8
9.9
6.5
7.6
21.6
18.4
2.1
2.1
6.8
7.4
1.0
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
824
1,132
116,107
42,038
47,503
23.2
23.5
55.8
62.9
14.8
13.1
3.4
2.6
23.0
19.8
2.4
1.9
Infosys
Buy
1,051
1,306
241,466
60,250
66,999
27.0
28.0
56.4
63.7
18.6
16.5
3.8
3.3
20.4
19.8
3.3
2.8
TCS
Buy
2,370
3,165
467,001
111,274
126,852
28.4
28.7
125.4
143.9
18.9
16.5
7.5
6.9
39.9
42.2
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
511
646
49,449
25,566
28,890
16.0
17.0
26.3
31.9
19.5
16.0
3.5
3.0
17.9
18.6
1.7
1.4
Wipro
Buy
550
719
135,823
50,808
58,713
23.7
23.8
37.3
42.3
14.7
13.0
2.8
2.5
19.0
17.9
2.2
1.8
Media
D B Corp
Accumulate
323
356
5,933
2,241
2,495
27.8
27.9
21.8
25.6
14.8
12.6
3.9
3.4
26.7
28.5
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
86
-
2,000
2,495
2,603
11.2
11.2
7.3
8.6
11.8
10.0
0.9
0.8
7.4
8.1
0.3
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
166
189
5,437
2,170
2,355
27.2
26.2
8.9
9.9
18.7
16.8
3.9
3.4
20.9
20.5
2.4
2.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
410
-
16,146
2,779
3,196
70.2
70.5
22.8
27.3
18.0
15.0
4.4
4.0
26.7
28.3
5.6
4.8
Hindustan Media
Neutral
291
-
2,137
920
1,031
20.0
20.0
19.2
20.9
15.2
14.0
2.5
2.1
16.4
15.3
1.9
1.6
Ventures
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Buy
327
380
206,261
76,167
84,130
19.9
22.3
22.4
25.8
14.6
12.6
5.3
5.1
35.5
41.0
2.0
1.8
Hind. Zinc
Buy
139
175
58,732
14,641
14,026
50.4
50.4
17.7
16.0
7.9
8.7
1.2
1.1
16.2
13.2
1.6
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
77
-
15,838
104,356
111,186
8.7
9.5
6.7
11.1
11.4
6.9
0.4
0.4
3.5
5.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,026
-
24,812
42,308
45,147
16.4
20.7
(10.3)
49.5
20.7
1.1
1.1
(1.0)
5.6
1.6
1.5
NMDC
Neutral
88
-
34,929
8,237
10,893
46.6
44.5
10.0
11.7
8.9
7.6
1.0
0.9
12.5
13.0
4.0
3.1
SAIL
Neutral
47
-
19,226
45,915
53,954
7.2
10.5
1.5
4.4
30.9
10.6
0.5
0.4
2.3
4.1
1.1
0.9
Vedanta
Neutral
81
-
24,058
71,445
81,910
26.2
26.3
12.9
19.2
6.3
4.2
0.4
0.4
7.2
8.9
0.8
0.6
Tata Steel
Neutral
250
-
24,290
126,760
137,307
8.9
11.3
6.4
23.1
39.3
10.8
0.8
0.8
2.0
7.1
0.8
0.7
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
129
-
24,167
11,323
12,490
49.4
51.0
20.7
20.7
6.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
6.4
6.1
1.2
0.6
GAIL
Neutral
370
-
46,959
64,856
70,933
9.1
9.6
24.0
28.9
15.5
12.8
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.6
0.9
0.8
ONGC
Neutral
227
-
193,953
154,564
167,321
36.8
37.4
28.6
32.5
7.9
7.0
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.5
1.5
1.4
Petronet LNG
Neutral
263
-
19,721
29,691
31,188
5.8
6.2
12.8
13.4
20.6
19.6
3.1
2.7
15.8
14.8
0.7
0.7
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
442
-
107,206
359,607
402,760
5.9
6.1
42.5
48.7
10.4
9.1
1.4
1.2
14.1
14.4
0.4
0.4
Reliance Industries
Accumulate
1,012
1,150
327,662
304,775
344,392
12.6
13.4
91.3
102.6
11.1
9.9
1.3
1.1
11.8
12.0
1.0
0.8
Stock Watch
January 08, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
663
-
12,497
2,658
3,112
24.1
20.2
24.6
23.9
27.0
27.7
9.7
7.4
42.5
30.2
4.7
3.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
842
-
49,190
14,923
17,162
22.0
23.0
35.7
42.8
23.6
19.7
6.9
5.2
34.0
30.2
3.7
3.1
Aventis*
Neutral
4,239
-
9,762
2,082
2,371
17.4
20.8
118.2
151.5
35.9
28.0
5.2
4.2
19.9
25.5
4.4
3.6
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
307
352
31,408
10,224
11,840
21.0
22.0
14.6
17.6
21.0
17.4
5.8
4.5
30.8
29.0
3.1
2.6
Cipla
Neutral
639
-
51,339
14,211
16,611
20.6
19.0
27.0
28.9
23.7
22.1
4.0
3.4
18.4
16.8
3.6
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Buy
2,991
3,933
50,999
16,838
19,575
25.0
23.1
167.5
178.8
17.9
16.7
3.8
3.1
23.1
20.4
3.0
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
325
-
2,623
1,733
1,906
21.5
21.5
17.0
19.9
19.1
16.3
1.9
1.7
10.5
11.2
2.0
1.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,232
-
27,372
2,870
3,158
20.0
22.1
59.5
68.3
54.3
47.3
16.0
16.5
28.5
34.3
9.0
8.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
309
-
2,843
1,033
1,199
15.9
18.2
9.4
13.6
32.8
22.7
4.9
4.1
15.7
19.7
2.8
2.5
Ipca labs
Buy
692
900
8,730
3,363
3,909
12.9
18.6
13.4
28.0
51.6
24.7
3.7
3.2
7.4
14.0
2.9
2.5
Lupin
Neutral
1,718
-
77,409
13,092
16,561
25.0
27.0
50.4
68.3
34.1
25.2
7.0
5.6
22.8
24.7
5.6
4.3
Sun Pharma
Buy
784
950
188,678
28,163
32,610
25.8
30.7
17.4
26.9
45.1
29.1
4.3
3.7
13.0
16.6
6.2
5.1
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
66
-
17,945
35,923
37,402
22.6
22.8
4.1
5.2
16.4
12.9
1.3
1.2
7.5
9.3
1.4
1.3
NTPC
Accumulate
138
157
113,664
87,064
98,846
23.5
23.5
11.7
13.2
11.8
10.4
1.3
1.2
11.4
12.1
2.3
2.1
Power Grid
Buy
138
170
72,222
20,702
23,361
86.7
86.4
12.1
13.2
11.4
10.5
1.7
1.5
15.6
15.1
8.4
7.8
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
321
-
128,496
101,748
109,191
32.1
31.7
12.0
12.5
26.8
25.7
1.8
1.7
6.9
6.7
1.9
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
133
-
48,029
34,282
36,941
32.0
31.5
5.9
6.2
22.6
21.5
2.1
1.9
9.9
9.3
2.0
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
5,682
-
12,074
2,715
3,153
14.5
14.1
134.3
152.2
42.3
37.3
10.6
8.7
27.4
25.6
4.2
3.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
199
290
2,013
4,719
5,287
5.2
5.8
8.6
12.7
23.3
15.8
2.7
2.3
11.4
14.8
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
253
-
3,874
2,520
2,883
12.2
12.0
12.7
14.2
20.0
17.8
2.7
2.4
13.6
13.5
1.3
1.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
546
622
1,258
1,888
1,680
12.1
11.9
62.2
56.6
8.8
9.6
2.1
1.8
25.9
19.7
0.4
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
1,266
-
3,442
1,779
2,081
7.8
8.8
21.8
33.4
58.1
37.9
9.4
7.6
17.4
22.1
2.0
1.7
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
305
-
5,526
1,620
1,847
11.5
11.5
7.3
8.5
41.9
36.0
5.4
5.0
13.3
14.4
3.3
2.8
MRF
Buy
39,052
45,575
16,563
20,316
14,488
21.4
21.1
5,488.0
3,798.0
7.1
10.3
2.4
2.0
41.1
21.2
0.8
1.0
Page Industries
Neutral
13,308
-
14,844
1,929
2,450
19.8
20.1
229.9
299.0
57.9
44.5
25.5
17.8
52.1
47.1
7.7
6.1
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
498
-
5,977
1,767
2,152
12.3
12.5
19.3
25.1
25.9
19.9
6.3
4.9
27.7
27.8
3.4
2.8
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,157
1,354
1,085
1,636
1,815
11.5
11.5
89.9
104.1
12.9
11.1
2.1
1.8
17.9
17.8
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
717
-
1,261
1,271
1,440
8.6
9.2
32.0
41.1
22.4
17.5
2.3
2.1
10.7
12.4
1.0
0.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,739
3,240
2,098
2,101
2,338
15.7
15.0
248.6
270.0
11.0
10.2
4.8
3.5
43.6
34.0
1.0
0.9
Stock Watch
January 08, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
FY16E
FY17E
zOthers
HSIL
Neutral
293
-
2,120
2,123
2,384
16.1
16.5
15.0
18.9
19.5
15.5
1.5
1.4
8.0
9.4
1.3
1.2
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
241
-
3,480
2,471
2,826
8.8
10.4
9.1
13.3
26.4
18.1
2.5
2.3
9.7
13.4
1.1
0.9
Ltd
M M Forgings
Accumulate
536
614
646
511
615
21.7
21.6
43.1
55.8
12.4
9.6
2.3
1.9
19.9
21.2
1.5
1.1
Banco Products (India) Neutral
139
-
997
1,208
1,353
11.0
12.3
10.8
14.5
12.9
9.6
1.5
1.3
11.9
14.5
0.8
0.7
Competent Automobiles Neutral
153
-
94
1,040
1,137
3.2
3.1
25.7
28.0
5.9
5.5
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.3
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,376
-
2,053
1,910
2,083
10.5
10.3
63.3
69.2
21.7
19.9
3.6
3.0
17.6
16.5
1.1
1.0
Visaka Industries
Buy
121
144
192
1,086
1,197
9.9
10.3
21.5
28.8
5.6
4.2
0.5
0.5
9.6
11.6
0.4
0.3
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
291
-
2,216
2,830
3,350
8.8
9.0
14.4
18.3
20.3
15.9
3.1
2.7
15.4
17.1
0.9
0.8
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
77
85
835
1,369
1,533
13.7
14.9
3.3
6.1
23.1
12.7
1.5
1.4
6.6
11.4
1.0
0.8
Surya Roshni
Buy
159
201
697
2,992
3,223
8.1
8.4
14.7
18.3
10.8
8.7
1.0
0.9
9.7
11.0
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
175
-
698
286
366
18.3
17.7
7.7
9.4
22.7
18.7
4.8
4.2
20.2
21.1
2.3
1.8
Radico Khaitan
Buy
111
156
1,479
1,565
1,687
12.2
13.0
5.7
7.1
19.5
15.7
1.6
1.5
8.3
9.6
1.4
1.3
Garware Wall Ropes
Buy
393
473
860
862
974
11.2
11.2
24.9
29.6
15.8
13.3
2.4
2.1
15.1
15.4
1.0
0.8
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
381
-
2,153
206
308
44.0
43.6
9.0
12.9
42.3
29.5
5.8
5.2
13.7
17.8
10.4
6.9
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
227
-
336
340
371
8.3
8.9
10.8
13.2
21.1
17.2
3.4
2.9
16.0
17.1
1.0
0.9
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
153
-
613
222
287
20.5
20.5
5.6
7.6
27.1
20.2
5.1
4.2
18.9
20.8
2.8
2.2
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,251
-
45,064
17,022
21,122
20.7
14.5
63.9
53.7
19.6
23.3
29.3
24.0
149.9
103.2
2.7
2.1
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
270
-
5,559
2,692
2,964
17.0
18.6
-
4.7
-
57.0
3.3
3.1
0.2
5.5
2.5
2.3
Ltd
Navneet Education
Accumulate
91
97
2,165
998
1,062
24.1
24.0
5.8
6.1
15.8
14.9
3.5
3.1
22.0
20.6
2.3
2.1
Navkar Corporation
Buy
201
265
2,869
365
436
38.3
37.5
5.6
5.9
35.7
34.2
2.2
2.1
6.3
6.1
8.7
7.4
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 07, 2016
Market Outlook
January 08, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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