JSPL | Quick Take
July 05, 2018
Jindal steel & Power
BUY
CMP
`212
Target Price
`327
JSPL is part of OP Jindal Group with presence in steel, power and mining
sectors. JSPL has capacity of 10.6 MTPA crude steel and 3,400MW of power
Investment Period
12 Months
generation capacity through its subsidiary Jindal Power Limited (JPL).
Capacity expansion done; EBIDTA/Tonne likely to improve: The company has
Stock Info
increased its crude steel capacity more than double in last five years from 3.6 MTPA
Sector
Steel & Pow er
to 8.6 MTPA and currently running at ~50% utilization, However given the current
Market Cap (` cr)
20,520
market scenario of steel demand we expect utilization level to improve to 80-85% in
Beta
2.8
next 7-8 months.
52 Week High / Low
294/112
Further, Jindal Shadeed (OMAN subsidiary) with a crude steel capacity of 2MTPA
Avg. Daily Volume
630,702
has ram up significantly in last three years and running at ~ 80% utilization we
Face Value (`)
1
expect the plant to reach to further utilization level of
85-90% going ahead. On
BSE Sensex
35,574
account of this we expect a combined output of crude steel to reach to 8.5-9 MTPA
by FY19.
Nifty
10,750
Improvement in PLF and PPA going ahead: In FY18 JPL has signed a additional
Reuters Code
JNSP.BO
250MW of PPA which makes it ~30% of installed capacity and it is in further
Bloomberg Code
JNSP IN
discussions with various utilities for signing of another 300MW PPA. Management
expects to generate ~1,700 MW units by FY19 owing to GOI’s effort to improve coal
Shareholding Pattern (%)
availability with implementation of SHAKTI scheme.
Outlook & Valuation: JSPL is currently placed at an inflection point where it is
Promoters
58.7
witnessing positive changes like (a) end of capex cycle and equipped with fully
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
6.9
operational Angul plant with 5 MTPA capacity, (b) increasing demand of power
FII / NRIs / OCBs
19.2
going forward with expectation of signing new PPA at JPL, (c) monetization of few
Indian Public / Others
15.3
assets like disinvestment of Tamnar- (EUP-I) 1,000 MW power plant and planning
for IPO of OMAN plant. Considering the company’s recent developments and
favorable business environment, we believe JSPL is trading at attractive valuation to
Abs.(%)
3m 1yr
3yr
its peer, hence we recommend ACCUMULATE on the stock with Target Price of
Sensex
6.0
12.9
26.2
`327 based on asset based approach of Steel segment on EV/Tonne basis and
JSPL
(7.0)
63.0
156.0
Power segment on EV/MW basis.
3 years price performance
Exhibit 1: Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr)
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
350
300
Net Sales
17,948
20,409
27,069
35,918
44,048
250
% chg
(6)
14
33
33
23
200
EBIDTA
3,201
4,337
5,882
8,097
10,580
150
100
% chg
(7)
35
36
38
31
50
EBITDA (%)
18%
21%
22%
23%
24%
0
EPS (Rs)
(32)
(26)
(17)
1
20
P/E (x)
-
-
-
216
10
P/BV (x)
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
Source: C-line, Angel Research
RoE (%)
-
-
-
0.3
5.9
RoCE (%)
-
0.6
2.9
5.7
9.5
Kripashankar Maurya
EV/EBITDA
19.9
13.8
10.1
7.3
5.2
022 39357600, Extn: 6004
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of July 05, 2018
July 05, 2018
1
JSPL | Quick Take
Company background
JSPL is part OP Jindal Group with presence in steel, power and mining sectors.
JSPL has capacity of 10.6 MTPA crude steel and 3,400MW of power generation
capacity through its subsidiary Jindal Power Limited (JPL).
JSPL operates the largest coal-based sponge iron plant in the world and has an
installed capacity of 3 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) of steel at Raigarh in
Chhattisgarh. Moreover, it has set up a 0.6 MTPA wire rod mill and a 1 MTPA
capacity bar mill at Patratu, Jharkhand, a medium and light structural mill at
Raigarh, Chhattisgarh and a 2.5 MTPA steel melting shop and a plate mill to
produce up to 5 -meter-wide plates at Angul, Odisha. In Oman (Middle East), the
company has a 2 MTPA integrated steel plant with a 1.5 MTPA gas-based Hot
Briquetted Iron (HBI) plant.
JSPL has installed power capacity of
3,400MW through its wholly owned
subsidiary Jindal Power Limited (JPL). In FY18, JPL had Power Purchase Agreement
(PPA) of 1,350MW and it operates at 35-37% utilization.
Exhibit 1: Product mix and installed capacity
Source: Company, Angel Research
Steel Sector outlook
Global steel demand to grow at 1-3% through FY2022
In 2017, global steel demand grew at 4.8% yoy supported by robust growth from
China at 8.3% followed by US, Japan and EU at 6.4%, 3.5 and 3.1% respectively.
Going ahead, we expect steel demand to benefit from favorable global economic
momentum, especially in advanced economies, however, the risks arising from
global trade tensions still exist. Further, higher than expected GDP growth would
aid 2-2.5% growth in steel demand from US and EU. China’s demand growth is
expected to moderate to 2-3% yoy owing to the slack in the construction industry
and declining auto production. However, India is expected to outperform with
strong growth projection of ~6% yoy led by robust growth in infrastructure and
construction segments coupled with healthy automobile production.
July 05, 2018
2
JSPL | Quick Take
Exhibit 2: Global steel demand
2000
1742
1800
1660
1631
1587
1535
1546
1600
1501
1515
1414
1443
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018P
2019P
2022P
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Domestic steel demand to grow at 6-7% through FY2022
Post witnessing moderate growth period since 2012, India's steel demand is
exhibiting swift comeback with vigorous growth of 7.8% yoy in FY2018. Pent-up
demand from low base of last year (affected due to demonetization), pick up in
infra projects, robust growth in auto (automobile production was up 14%) has
provided the required thrust to the sector's growth.
Going ahead, we foresee steel demand to continue its strong stride at 6-7%
through FY2022E supported by government led initiatives, especially affordable
housing and infrastructure projects in metro, road and urban infra space (which
are more steel intensive). Government’s focus is expected to rise towards
execution of affordable housing, with 2019 being a pre-election year.
This is evident from the recent rise in houses sanctioned for construction tripling
to 4 million in March 2018 as against 1.3 million in January 2017. Additionally,
awarding of infrastructure projects is also estimated to pick-up going ahead.
Moreover, automotive production is also expected to witness a robust growth of
7-9% through FY2022.
Exhibit 3: Domestic steel consumption
140
9.00%
125
8.00%
120
7.00%
96
100
91
82
84
6.00%
77
80
74
74
5.00%
60
4.00%
3.00%
40
2.00%
20
1.00%
0
0.00%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18P FY19P
FY23P
Steel consumption
Y-o-Y growth
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
July 05, 2018
3
JSPL | Quick Take
Exhibit 4: Sector wise growth
Exhibit 5: Key sectors growth rate
120%
Past 5 year growth
Next 5 years growth
Segments
(%)
(%)
100%
14%
14%
Infrastructure
6-7%
8-10%
80%
13%
12%
Others
Building &
2-3%
4.5-5.5%
Capital & Consumer g
Construction
60%
30%
33%
Building & Constructi
Automotive Vehicles
5%
7-8%
40%
Automotive Vehicles
10%
10%
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Infrastructure
20%
30%
34%
0%
FY18
FY23P
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Improvement in utilization levels to continue its upward trajectory
After reaching lower utilization levels in FY2016 due to flooding imports,
utilization levels have revived to 78% in FY2017 with government intervention.
Even in FY2018, utilization levels steered upward to 80% led by 7.8% demand
growth and 17% export growth coupled with capacity additions commissioning
towards later part of the year.
With upcoming elections in 2019, progress of government-led projects under
affordable housing and infrastructure sector is estimated to expedite. Moreover,
automobile production, primarily cars and MHCVs, is expected to grow in the
range of 7-8%. This shall potentially result in uptick in the domestic steel demand
at 5.5-6.5% yoy. Healthy demand prospects and positive export outlook coupled
with minimal capacity additions to further improve utilization levels. Over the next
five years, with healthy demand growth at 6-7%, stable exports levels and limited
capacity additions would increase utilization levels to 86% by FY2022.
Exhibit 6: Improving Utilization level
160
88%
86%
86%
140
85%
84%
120
83%
82%
82%
82%
81%
81%
81%
100
80%
80%
80%
80
78%
78%
76%
60
74%
74%
40
72%
20
70%
0
68%
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19P FY20P FY21P FY22P FY23P
Crude steel capacity
Crude steel production
Crude steel Utilization
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
July 05, 2018
4
JSPL | Quick Take
Power Sector Outlook
Indian power sector is undergoing a significant change that has redefined the
industry’s outlook. Sustained economic growth continues to drive electricity
demand in India. The Government of India’s focus on attaining ‘Power for all’ has
accelerated capacity addition in the country. At the same time, the competitive
intensity is increasing at both the market and supply sides (fuel, logistics, finances,
and manpower). Total installed capacity of power stations in India stood at 344
Gigawatt (GW) as on April, 2018.
Power demand to grow at 6-6.5 % CAGR over FY2019-22
Power demand is expected to register a healthy growth of 6-6.5% CAGR over the
next 5 years (FY2018-22). Industrial demand is expected to grow at a moderate
pace, in-line with GDP growth and gradual pick-up in economic activity. However,
residential demand is expected to witness stronger growth on account of higher
latent demand and rapid urbanization coupled with impetus from government for
rural electrification. Electricity consumption in domestic segment is estimated to
increase at a rapid pace of around 8.5-9.0% over FY2018-22 and its share in total
electricity consumption is expected to increase to 25% in FY2021 from 23% in
FY2016
Exhibit 7: Power sector requirement
1800
1566
1600
1400
1143
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
FY17P
FY18P
FY19P
FY20P
FY21P
FY22P
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Higher PLF on the back of demand growth
Power supply deficit is expected to narrow down to zero as oversupply situation is
going to persist owing to ~29 GW of coal based capacity additions over FY2019-
23. However, retirement of ~9.5 GW of old capacities over the same period and
higher growth in demand at ~6.8% CAGR would support PLFs. The PLFs are
expected to steadily rise to 67-68% by FY2022 with higher off-take from existing
tied up capacities, thereby benefitting generators. Coal based PLFs are estimated
to remain low at about 62% till FY2020. However, from FY2020 onwards, with an
improvement in power demand and retirement of old plants coupled with
slowdown in capacity additions owing to stretched financials of developers, we
expect an improvement in coal based PLFs to about 67-68% by FY2021-22.
July 05, 2018
5
JSPL | Quick Take
Exhibit 8: Coal based utilisation to improve
Utilisation
70%
68%
68%
66%
65%
64%
62%
62%
60%
60%
60%
59%
58%
56%
54%
FY17
FY18P
FY19P
FY20P
FY21P
FY22P
Utilisation
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Limited Capacity addition with improving utilisation
Capacity addition 18-20 MT
160
88%
86%
140
85%
84%
120
83%
82%
82%
81%
81%
81%
100
80%
80%
80%
80
78%
78%
76%
60
74%
74%
40
72%
20
70%
0
68%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19P
FY20P
FY21P
FY22P
FY23P
Crude steel Capacity
Crude steel Production
Crude steel utilisation
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Limited capacity addition leads to improving utilization
Steel capacity expansion is expected to increase moderately due to fewer
additions i.e. from 133 MT in FY18 to 152 MT in FY23E, with net addition of ~18-
20 MT against 36 MT in last five years. Apart from this, India’s nearly one-fifth of
steel capacity is referred to NCLT, hence consolidation in industry is expected and
post acquisition (if any), the potential ramping up of the stressed asset (refer
Exhibit 10) by around 3-4 MTPA is estimated. We expect this scenario to create a
significant opportunity for JSPL to tap the upcoming steel demand and deliver
better performance.
July 05, 2018
6
JSPL | Quick Take
Exhibit 10: Steel player’s capacity and Utilisation
Source: CRISIL, Angel Research
Investment Argument
Capacity expansion done; EBIDTA/Tonne likely to improve:
The company has more than doubled its crude steel capacity in last five years
from 3.6 MTPA to 8.6 MTPA and is currently running at ~50% utilization. However,
given the current market scenario of steel demand, we expect utilization level to
improve to 80-85% over the next 7-8 months. Further, Jindal Shadeed (OMAN
subsidiary), with a crude steel capacity of 2MTPA, has ramped up significantly in
the last three years and is running at ~ 80% utilization. We expect the plant to
reach to further utilization level of 85-90% going ahead. On account of this, we
expect a combined output of crude steel to reach to 8.5-9 MTPA by FY19E.
Moreover, higher utilization of current capacity would lead to an improvement in
the company’s steel production and enhance operating margins. Over FY19-20E,
we expect JSPL to report EBITDA/tonne in the range of `10,500-12,000 (`12,500
EBIDTA/tonne in Q4FY18) owing to continuous demand of steel from
infrastructure, housing and auto sectors
Improvement in PLF and PPA going ahead
JPL currently has PPA arrangement of 30% of total installed capacity of 3400 MW
power plant and running at 37% utilization level. During the year JPL has signed a
250MW PPA and it is in discussions with various utilities for another 300MW PPA
and management expects to generate ~ 1,700 MW units by FY19. We expect the
plant’s utilization to improve further owing to increasing power demand and
GOI’s effort to improve coal availability with implementation of SHAKTI scheme.
July 05, 2018
7
JSPL | Quick Take
Exhibit 11: PPA arrangements
Project
Buyer
Type
From
ToQuantum MW
Tamnar II (Phase 1)
Long term Feb-14 Sep-18
400
Tamilnadu
Tamnar
Medium TermSep-17Aug-19
200
Tamnar II (Phase 1)
Long Term Jun-18May-41
200
KSEB
Tamnar II (Phase 1)
Oct-18 Sep-42
150
Tamnar II
After
60
(Phase 1)
commercial
operation of
Chhattisgarh
Long Term
Tamnar II
Unit and for
60
(Phase 2)
complete life
of plant
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Coal arrangements
Arrangements
Tamnar-I (EUPI)*Tamnar-II (EUPII)Tamnar-II-(EUP III)
Coal sourced through market
linkages with
FSA
purchase and e-auction
MGL and SECL
TNEB-400MW
CSEB-60MW
PPA
TNEB-200 MW
CSEB-60MW
KSEB-200MW
KSEB-150 MW
Source: Company, Angel Research
*Disinvestment announced
Valuation Assumption
We value the stock on Asset based approach, valuing each segment’s assets at
discount to its peer companies, while applying multiple to respective asset. We
arrive at the SOTP based target price of ` 327.
July 05, 2018
8
JSPL | Quick Take
Exhibit 13: Asset based SOTP Valuation
Segments
Capacity
Multiple (X) ` Cr.
Total `Cr.
Power- (EV/MW)*
3,400
4
13,600
Steel- (EV/Tonne)#
10.6
5,400
57,240
Consol Enterprise Value (A)
70,840
Add
CWIP (B)
3,877
Cash(C)
468
Subtotal (D )= (A)+(B)+(C)
75,185
Less
Debt FY18 (E)
42,000
Equity Value ( F)= (D)-(E)
33,185
No of share (G)^
102
Value per share INR (F)/(G)
327
CMP
212
Upside
54%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Note:
*Disinvestment announced in May 2016 by JSW Energy to acquire 1,000 MW (4X250)
Tamnar Thermal Power Plant from JSPL.
Valuing Power segment by applying multiple of `4Cr./MW at 16% discount to JSW
Energy’s EV `4.75Cr./MW.
# Valuing the steel segment by applying multiple of `5,400Cr. /MTPA at 12% discount
to JSW Steel’s EV/Tonne `6,100Cr. /MTPA.
^ Factoring issuance of warrant shares.
Exhibit 14: Peer Asset Valuation
Particular
JSW steel
Tata Steel JSW Energy Tata power
NTPC
EV/Tonne
6,103
5,393
EV/MW
4.8
5.5
4.6
Crude steel Capacity (MTPA)
18
28
Power Generation Capacity (MW)
4,437
10,757
53,651
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook & Valuation
JSPL is currently placed at an inflection point where it is witnessing positive
changes like (a) end of capex cycle and equipped with fully operational Angul
plant with 5 MTPA capacity, (b) increasing demand of power going forward with
expectation of signing new PPA at JPL, (c) monetization of few assets like
disinvestment of Tamnar- (EUP-I) 1,000 MW power plant and planning for IPO of
OMAN plant. Considering the company’s recent developments and favorable
business environment, we believe JSPL is trading at attractive valuation to its peer,
hence we recommend ACCUMULATE on the stock with Target Price of `327
based on asset based approach of Steel segment on EV/Tonne basis and Power
segment on EV/MW basis.
July 05, 2018
9
JSPL | Quick Take
Key risks
Shortage of coal
The major threat for the company is the shortage and higher coal prices going
forward, which may affect the power segment adversely.
Excess supply of steel
Resolution in NCLT phase I is a key, any material improvement in utilization of this
group company may stabilizes or reduce steel price in future. However, this plant
is already running at 60-70% utilization level.
Softening of steel prices
Any slowdown of investments in key steel consuming sector such as
infrastructure, housing and auto may trigger lower demand of steel, which could
lead to subdued steel prices.
Income Statement
Y/E March (`cr)
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E FY20E
Total operating income
18,371
21,051
27,383
35,918
44,048
% chg
(6)
15
30
31
23
Total Expenditure
15,170
16,714
21,502
27,821
33,468
Raw Material
6,076
6,535
9,378
11,709
14,536
Personnel
947
914
956
1,268
1,555
Purchase of finished goods
21
265
324
359
440
Others Expenses
8,127
8,999
10,843
14,484
16,937
EBIDTA
3,201
4,337
5,882
8,097
10,580
% chg
(51)
35
36
38
31
(% of Net Sales)
17.4
20.6
21.5
22.5
24.0
Depreciation& Amortisation
4,068
3,949
3,883
4,114
4,234
EBIT
-867
388
1,999
3,983
6,346
% chg
(123)
(145)
415
99
59
(% of Net Sales)
-5
2
7
11
14
Interest & other Charges
3,254
3,441
3,866
3,866
3,866
Other Income
157
10
3
3
3
Extraordinary Items
(236)
(372)
(577)
-
-
Recurring PBT
-3,728
-2,671
-1,287
121
2,483
% chg
(220)
(28)
(52)
(109)
1,960
Tax
-877
-503
-240
28
571
PAT (reported)
-2,850
-2,168
-1,047
93
1,912
% chg
(189)
(24)
(52)
(109)
1,960
(% of Net Sales)
-15.5
-10.3
-3.8
0.3
4.3
Basic & Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)
-32
-26
-17
1
20
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 05, 2018
10
JSPL | Quick Take
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E FY20E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
91
92
97
97
97
Reserves& Surplus
32,345
29,959
30,283
30,376
32,288
Shareholders’ Funds
32,436
30,051
30,380
30,473
32,385
Equity Share warrant
5
5
5
Minority Interest
900
647
440
338
235
Total Loans
44,132
39,958
39,198
38,824
34,362
Other Liabilities
6,911
6,430
6,074
8,412
8,744
Total Liabilities
84378
77086
76097
78052
75731
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
66,195
66,934
69,550
67,732
65,997
Capital Work-in-Progress
10,703
8,714
3,877
1,947
1,850
Investments
359
368
146
146
146
Long Term Loans & Advances
-
-
Current Assets
12,732
13,022
14,313
18,245
21,727
Inventories
3,254
3,599
4,960
6,396
7,241
Sundry Debtors
1,429
1,717
1,826
2,423
2,972
Cash & Cash Equivalent
620
477
468
254
344
Loans & Advances
7,354
6,841
6,589
8,743
10,722
Investments & Others
74
387
471
429
450
Current liabilities
8,815
13,489
13,133
17,488
20,765
Net Current Assets
3,917
-467
1,180
758
963
Other Non Current Asset
3,204
1,537
1,343
7,470
6,775
Total Assets
84378
77086
76097
78052
75731
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 05, 2018
11
JSPL | Quick Take
Cash Flow
Y/E March (`cr)
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
Profit before tax
(3,728)
(2,671)
(1,287)
121
2,483
Depreciation
4,068
3,949
3,883
4,114
4,234
Change in Working Capital
Interest / Dividend (Net)
3,254
3,441
3,866
3,866
3,866
Direct taxes paid
(877)
(503)
(240)
28
571
Others
1,617
2,582
(516)
(701)
(114)
Cash Flow from Operations
4,333
6,799
5,706
7,427
11,040
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(3,853)
(2,354)
(2,000)
(2,499)
(2,498)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
1,589
356
175
(46)
(45)
Cash Flow from Investing
(2,261)
(1,998)
(1,825)
(2,545)
(2,543)
Issue of Equity
-
-
1,200
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
-17085.5
-2875.18
-759.59
-374.85
-4462
Others
14,414
(2,181)
(4,306)
(4,516)
(3,946)
Cash Flow from Financing
(2,672)
(5,057)
(3,866)
(4,891)
(8,408)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(600)
(256)
15
(9)
89
Opening Cash balances
1,103
503
247
262
254
Closing Cash balances
503
247
263
254
343
Source: Company, Angel Research
Key Valuation
Y/E March (X)
FY2016 FY2017
FY2018
FY2019E
FY2020E
P/E (on FDEPS)
-
-
-
215.9
10.5
P/CEPS
16.5
11.3
7.1
4.8
3.3
P/BV
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
EV/Sales
3.6
2.9
2.2
1.6
1.2
EV/EBITDA
19.9
13.8
10.1
7.3
5.2
EV / Total Assets
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
-31.9
-26.2
-16.8
1.0
19.8
EPS (fully diluted)
-30.4
-25.0
-16.0
0.9
18.8
Cash EPS
12.6
18.4
29.3
43.5
63.5
DPS
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Book Value
335
310
314
315
335
Returns (%)
ROCE
-1.1
0.6
2.9
5.7
9.5
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
-1.2
0.6
2.8
5.3
8.6
ROE
-9.5
-8.5
-5.3
0.3
5.9
Turnover ratios (x)
Inventory / Sales (days)
66
64
67
65
60
Receivables (days)
29
31
25
25
25
Payables (days)
47
52
56
56
56
Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)
48
43
35
33
28
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 05, 2018
12
JSPL | Quick Take
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Company Name
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or
No
relatives
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July 05, 2018
13