Technical Research | March 19, 2012
Daily Technical Report
Sensex (17466) / NIFTY (5318)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
On Friday, our Benchmark indices opened on a pessimistic
note and traded with extreme volatility throughout the
session to close marginally above the 5300 mark. On the
sectoral front, Oil & Gas, Power and Consumer Goods
were among the major looser, whereas FMCG ended on a
gaining side. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in
favor of declining counters. (A=1044 D=1801) (Source -
www.bseindia.com)
Formation:
• The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-
day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to
17164 / 5163 and 17607 / 5350, respectively.
• The “20-Week EMA” is placed at 17150 / 5188 level.
• The Daily momentum oscillators and “3 & 8 EMA” are
negatively poised.
• Indices have closed around the
61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the rise from 17008 to 18041 / 5171
Source: Falcon
to 5500.
Actionable points:
Trading strategy:
View
Neutral
As mentioned in the previous weekly report, volatility surged
Resistance Levels
5353 - 5387
on the back of major domestic events. Further, strong
Support Levels
5305 - 5244
selling pressure on the Budget day dragged indices
significantly lower to test 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of the rise from 17008 to 18041 / 5171 to 5500. At this
juncture, the momentum oscillators and “3 & 8 EMA” on
daily chart are negatively poised. Hence, in the coming
week, if indices sustain below Friday’s low of 17426 /
5305, then we may witness further selling pressure. In this
scenario, markets may drift lower to test 17239 - 17008 /
5244 - 5171 levels. On the upside, 18040 / 5500 level is
likely to act as resistance for the Indices. A sustainable move
beyond this level may push indices higher to test swing high
of 18524 / 5630.
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1
Technical Research | March 19, 2012
Bank Nifty Outlook - (10391)
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
On Friday, in line with our benchmark indices, Bank Nifty
too traded with extreme volatility throughout the session.
The “Bearish Engulfing” candle stick pattern mentioned in
our previous report has been confirmed as the index
closed below 10556 levels. The negative crossover in
“RSI” momentum oscillator mentioned in our previous
report is still intact. Thus, if Bank Nifty sustains below
Friday’s low of 10348 then we may drift towards 10169 -
10073 levels. On the upside 10536 - 10700 levels are
likely to act as resistance in coming trading session.
Actionable points:
View
Negative Below 10348
Expected Target
10169 - 10073
Resistance Levels
10536 - 10700
Source: Falcon
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2
Technical Research | March 19, 2012
Positive Bias:
20 Day
Positive
Expected
Stock Name
CMP
5 Day EMA
Remarks
EMA
Above
Target
View will change below
M & M
678
669
683.5
685
715
655
Negative Bias:
20 Day
Negative
Expected
Stock Name
CMP
5 Day EMA
Remarks
EMA
Below
Target
View will change above
Tata Motors
286.7
285.6
274
282.5
270
292
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3
Technical Research | March 19, 2012
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
17,144
17,305
17,588
17,749
18,032
NIFTY
5,216
5,267
5,356
5,407
5,497
BANKNIFTY
10,040
10,216
10,524
10,700
11,008
ACC
1,304
1,322
1,339
1,356
1,373
AMBUJACEM
159
164
167
171
174
AXISBANK
1,157
1,187
1,233
1,263
1,309
BAJAJ-AUTO
1,689
1,705
1,731
1,748
1,773
BHARTIARTL
322
325
330
333
338
BHEL
254
264
279
289
305
BPCL
648
656
669
677
690
CAIRN
323
334
352
364
382
CIPLA
294
298
304
308
315
COALINDIA
333
337
343
347
353
DLF
189
193
197
201
206
DRREDDY
1,646
1,663
1,686
1,703
1,726
GAIL
354
360
370
376
385
HCLTECH
483
490
498
505
513
HDFC
654
660
669
675
683
HDFCBANK
493
500
513
520
532
HEROMOTOCO
1,898
1,927
1,955
1,984
2,012
HINDALCO
135
138
141
144
148
HINDUNILVR
380
385
388
394
397
ICICIBANK
884
901
927
944
971
IDFC
138
142
147
150
155
INFY
2,809
2,837
2,875
2,903
2,941
ITC
200
208
216
225
233
JINDALSTEL
544
560
582
597
619
JPASSOCIAT
73
76
80
82
86
KOTAKBANK
515
527
547
559
579
LT
1,271
1,296
1,339
1,363
1,406
M&M
628
653
675
700
723
MARUTI
1,291
1,333
1,381
1,423
1,471
NTPC
165
169
175
179
185
ONGC
256
265
277
285
298
PNB
915
939
980
1,004
1,044
POWERGRID
104
106
109
111
114
RANBAXY
403
407
413
417
424
RCOM
89
90
93
95
97
RELIANCE
749
761
779
791
809
RELINFRA
608
620
640
652
672
RPOWER
125
128
132
135
140
SAIL
92
94
97
99
103
SBIN
2,126
2,177
2,266
2,317
2,406
SESAGOA
191
195
201
205
212
SIEMENS
731
751
783
804
836
STER
109
112
116
118
122
SUNPHARMA
501
523
558
581
615
SUZLON
26
27
29
30
31
TATAMOTORS
274
280
289
295
304
TATAPOWER
101
103
107
110
114
TATASTEEL
435
445
459
469
483
TCS
1,147
1,158
1,169
1,180
1,191
WIPRO
421
425
430
434
440
Technical Research Team
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Technical Report
RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
Technical Analyst
Mehul Kothari
Technical Analyst
Ankur Lakhotia
Technical Analyst
For any Queries, Suggestions and Feedback kindly mail to [email protected]
Research Team: 022-3952 6600
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