Daily Technical Report
May 15, 2012
Sensex (16216) / NIFTY (4908)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Yesterday, we witnessed a quiet opening on the back
of mix global cues. However, inflation data
disappointed the street and markets tumbled down to
test mentioned support level of 16000 - 4850. A
minor recovery during the second half of the session
led indices to close just above 4900 mark. On the
sectoral front, Oil & Gas, Banking and Realty were
among the major losers; whereas Health Care and IT
sectors ended marginally in the positive territory. The
advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of
declining counters (A=1047 D=1657) (Source
-
Formation
Source: Falcon
The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and
20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have
now shifted to 16920 / 5100 and 16940 /
5130, respectively.
The ‘20-Week EMA’ is placed at 17100 / 5180
Actionable points:
level.
View
Neutral
Indices have now tested 16430 / 4950 level,
Resistance Level
4957 - 5050
which is the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement level
Support Levels
4850 - 4800
of the rise from
15135
/
4531 (Low on
December 23, 2011) to 18524 / 5630 (High on
February 22, 2012).
Trading strategy:
Yesterday, selling pressure dragged indices
significantly lower to test mentioned support level of
16000 / 4850. Going forward, we reiterate that
considering oversold position of momentum
oscillators on the daily chart, it is not advisable to
create fresh short position at this juncture. However,
loss of momentum or an oversold condition in the
momentum oscillators does not necessarily signal a
price reversal. Hence, only a move beyond yesterday's
high of 16390 / 4957 may provide bounce for the
markets up to 16447 - 16700 / 4976 -5050 levels.
On the downside, 16000 - 15860 / 4850 - 4800
levels are likely to act as decent support for the
markets.
1
Daily Technical Report
May 15, 2012
Bank Nifty Outlook - (9258)
Yesterday, Bank Nifty opened on a flat note and
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart
selling pressure lead the index to test the lower end of
the mentioned range of 9700 - 9200. The “Spinning
Top” candlestick pattern mentioned in our previous
report has been negated as the index managed to
give a close below 9296 level. However, in line with
the benchmark indices the momentum oscillators on
the daily chart continue to remain in an oversold
zone. The “Positive divergence” in momentum
oscillator “RSI” on the hourly chart mentioned in our
previous report is still intact. We reiterate that the
Bank Nifty is likely to trade in the mentioned range of
9200 - 9700. Within the mentioned range, 9380 -
9536 are likely to act as temporary resistance levels.
Only a close below 9200 will signal further weakness
in the index.
Source: Falcon
Actionable points:
View
Neutral
Resistance Levels
9380 - 9536
Support Levels
9200 - 9106
2
Daily Technical Report
May 15, 2012
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni
-
Head - Technicals
Sameet Chavan
-
Technical Analyst
Sacchitanand Uttekar
-
Technical Analyst
Mehul Kothari
-
Technical Analyst
Ankur Lakhotia
-
Technical Analyst
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