
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Angel Top Picks – November 2019
FPI flows positive for the second month in a row – The Government announced cut
in corporate tax cuts on the 20
th
of Sep’19 post which FPI flows have turned
positive. FPI flows have now been positive for the second month in a row and at
INR 12,476 for the month of November. Total flows for 2019 now stands at INR
67,335 cr. as compared to outflow of INR 33,553 cr. for 2018
Q1FY20 GDP number of 5.0% probably the bottom in terms of growth rate - Rate
cuts and large transfer by the RBI, Improving monsoon situation, relief for FPI's
from additional surcharge and tax cuts announced by the Government should help
in reversing sentiments going forward. The Q1FY20 GDP growth number at 5.0%
probably marks the bottom in terms of growth rate. Hence we believe that the
worst is over and growth rates should start improving from Q2 onwards driven by
Government spending while private spending is expected to pick up from the
second half of FY20.
US-China trade war throws up opportunity for India - The trade war between US
and China has already caused global growth rates to slow. The OECD has
recently cut its GDP growth estimate for FY19 from 3.2% to 2.9% while growth rate
for 2020 have been cut to 3.0% from it's earlier forecast of 3.4%. While the US
China trade war is having an adverse impact on global growth India is relatively
immune given low share of exports to GDP as compared to some of the other
Asian countries. The US China trade war however is an opportunity for India as
some manufacturing capacities would be moving out of China in order to de-risk
their supply chain. With tax rates in India now comparable to some of the other
emerging economies we would be in a better position to capture the opportunities
thrown up by the disruption caused by the trade war.
Earnings upgrades post corporate tax cuts keeps valuations attractive - The tax cuts
would increase profitability for companies at the highest tax bracket by ~14%. Post
the tax cuts Nifty earnings are expected to be revised upwards by 8-10% led banks
and consumer companies which are paying taxes at the highest rate. Most analysts
on street are incorporating only the direct impact of tax cuts in their Nifty earnings
estimates. We believe that there would be a second round of impact on growth as
the increased profits would be used by the companies to stimulate demand
through price cuts and by investments in new capacities. This will help boost
growth over a period of time which would in turn lead to higher tax collections and
thus lower fiscal deficit in the long run.
Top pick’s overview
We recommend our top picks as it has outperformed the benchmark BSE 100
since inception. We believe that consumer (both discretionary and non
discretionary) space and private sector banks (both corporate and retail) offers
good growth opportunity going forward despite volatile market environment.
Exhibit 1: Top Picks Performance
Return Since Inception (30th Oct, 2015)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shriram Transport Finance
Real Estate/Infra/Logistics/Power
Source: Angel Research
Note: CMP as of October 31, 2019