3QFY2017 Result Update | IT
February 1, 2017
Tech Mahindra
BUY
CMP
`452
Performance Highlights
Target Price
`600
(` cr)
3QFY17
2QFY17
% chg (QoQ)
3QFY16
% chg (YoY)
Investment Period
12 Months
Net revenue
7,558
7,167
5.4
6,701
12.8
EBITDA
1,187
1,070
10.9
1,135
4.5
Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%)
15.7
14.9
77bp
16.9
(124)bps
Sector
IT
Adj. PAT
845
645
31.0
759
11.2
Market Cap (` cr)
43,962
Source: Company, Angel Research;
Net Debt (` cr)
(6,370)
Beta
1.1
For 3QFY2017, Tech Mahindra posted results much better than expected on all
52 Week High / Low
564/405
fronts. The company posted sales of US$1,116mn (US$1,091mn expected) v/s
Avg. Daily Volume
218,321
US$1,072mn, a qoq growth of 4.1%. In Constant Currency (CC) terms, company
Face Value (`)
5
posted a 5.4% qoq growth. On EBIT front, the company posted EBIT of 12.4%
BSE Sensex
27,656
(12.1% expected) v/s 11.5% in 2QFY2016. The utilization levels improved to
83.0% v/s 82.0% in 2QFY2016. Consequently, PAT came in at `845cr (`733cr
Nifty
8,561
expected) v/s `645cr in 2QFY2016, growth of 31.0% qoq. The growth in the net
Reuters Code
TEML.BO
profit was aided by the lower taxes during the quarter, which dipped 25.1% yoy.
Bloomberg Code
TECHM@IN
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Result highlights: The company posted sales of US$1,116mn (US$1,091mn
Shareholding Pattern (%)
expected) v/s US$1,072mn, a qoq growth of 4.1%. In Constant Currency (CC)
Promoters
36.2
terms, company posted a 5.4% qoq growth. The strong sales growth was aided by
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
17.2
ROW (which contributed around 23.9% v/s 22.0% of sales in 2QFY2017), while
FII / NRIs / OCBs
35.5
USA (which contributed 46.7% v/s 48.3% of sales in 2QFY2017) and Europe
Indian Public / Others
11.1
(which contributed 29.4% v/s 29.7% of sales in 2QFY2017). On EBIT front, the
company posted EBIT of 12.4% (12.1% expected) v/s 11.5% in 2QFY2016. The
utilization levels improved to 83.0% v/s 82.0% in 2QFY2016. Consequently, PAT
Abs.(%)
3m 1yr
3yr
came in at `845cr (`733cr expected) v/s `645cr in 2QFY2016, growth of 31.0% qoq.
Sensex
(1.0)
11.2
34.8
Tech Mahindra
2.8
(9.9)
0.9
Outlook and valuation: We expect a CAGR of 10.6% and 11.5% in USD and
INR revenue respectively over FY2016-18E. The PAT is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 11.4% over FY2016-18E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock
3-year price chart
with a Target Price of `600.
800
700
Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
600
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
500
Net sales
22,621
26,494
29,673
32,937
400
300
% chg
20.1
17.1
12.0
11.0
200
Net profit
2,628
3,118
3,173
3,866
100
% chg
(10.4)
18.7
1.8
21.9
0
EBITDA margin (%)
18.4
16.3
15.5
17.0
EPS (`)
27.1
32.2
32.8
39.9
P/E (x)
16.6
14.0
13.8
11.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/BV (x)
3.6
3.0
2.7
2.3
RoE (%)
21.5
21.7
19.6
20.6
RoCE (%)
24.0
20.8
19.8
21.6
Sarabjit kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.1
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.2
9.2
8.3
6.5
[email protected]
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of January 31, 2017
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2017 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
(` cr)
3QFY17
2QFY17
% chg (qoq)
3QFY16
% chg (yoy)
9MFY17
9MFY16
% chg (yoy)
Net revenue
7,558
7,167
5.4
6,701
12.8
21,646
19,611
10.4
Cost of revenue
5,235
4,972
5.3
4,607
13.6
14,103
13,058
8.0
Gross profit
2,322
2,196
5.8
2,094
10.9
7,543
6,553
15.1
SG&A expense
1,136
1,126
0.9
959
18.4
4,258
3,433
24.0
EBITDA
1,187
1,070
10.9
1,135
4.5
3,286
3,120
5.3
Dep. and amortization
248
245
1.3
174
42.5
695
542
28.2
EBIT
939
825
13.7
962
(2.4)
2,591
2,579
0.5
Interest
35
35
1.2
24
99.3
97
63
53.7
Other income
155
139
11.9
64
59.0
540
284
90.0
PBT
1,059
930
13.9
1,002
5.7
3,034
2,800
8.4
Income taxes
214
286
(25.1)
233
12.4
747
638
17.1
PAT
845
644
31.2
769
9.8
2,287
2,162
5.8
Minority interest
0
(0)
-
10
(98.5)
-
1
PAT after minority interest
845
644
31.2
759
11.2
2,285
2,162
5.7
Profit from associates
-
-
-
-
-
Exceptional item
-
-
-
-
-
Reported PAT
845
644
31.2
759
11.2
2,285
2,162
5.7
Adj. PAT
845
645
31.0
759
11.2
2,285
2,162
5.7
Diluted EPS
8.8
6.7
31.0
7.9
11.2
23.8
22.5
5.7
Gross margin (%)
30.7
30.6
9bp
31.2
(52)bps
34.8
33.4
143bp
EBITDA margin (%)
15.7
14.9
77bp
16.9
(124)bps
15.2
15.9
(73)bp
EBIT margin (%)
12.4
11.5
90bp
14.4
(194bps
12.0
13.1
(118)bp
PAT margin (%)
11.3
9.0
233bps
11.3
0bps
10.6
11.0
(47)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2017 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimate
% Var
Net revenue
7,558
7,361
2.7
EBITDA margin (%)
15.7
15.6
10bps
PAT
845
733
15.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue growth led by ROW
In sales, the company posted sales of US$1,116mn (US$1,091mn expected) v/s
US$1,072mn, a qoq growth of 4.1%. In Constant Currency (CC) terms, company
posted a 5.4% qoq growth. In Rupee terms, the company posted sales of `7,558cr
(`7,361cr expected) v/s `7,167cr in 2QFY2017, a qoq growth of 5.4%.
The strong sales growth was aided by the ROW (which contributed around 23.9%
v/s 22.0% of sales in 2QFY2017), while USA (which contributed 46.7% v/s 48.3%
of sales in 2QFY2017) and Europe (which contributed 29.4% v/s 29.7% of sales in
2QFY2017).
Vertical wise, BFSI (contributed around 13.1% v/s 11.7% in 2QFY2017), Retail,
transport & Logistics (contributed around 7.6% of sales V/s 6.8% of sales in
2QFY2017) performed well.
February 1, 2017
2
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth
1,140
9.0%
1,116
1,120
8.0%
7.0%
1,100
1,072
6.0%
1,080
5.0%
1,060
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
1,040
1,032
1,023
3.0%
1,015
1,020
2.0%
1,000
0.8%
1.0%
0.9%
980
0.4%
0.0%
960
-1.0%
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Sales ( in US $mn)
qoq (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Growth in industry segments
Particulars
% to revenue
% growth (QoQ)
% growth (YoY)
Telecom
47.3
0.4
0.1
Manufacturing
18.4
(0.3)
18.3
TME
6.4
(7.5)
(4.9)
BFSI
13.1
18.6
47.0
RTL
7.6
16.3
22.9
Others
7.1
8.7
2.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
In terms of geographies, ROW posted a growth of 13.1% qoq, while Europe and
US posted a growth of 3.0% and 0.6% qoq respectively.
Exhibit 5: Growth trend in geographies
Particulars
% to revenue
% growth (QoQ)
% growth (YoY)
Americas
46.7
0.6
7.5
Europe
29.4
3.0
11.9
RoW
23.9
13.1
14.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 1, 2017
3
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Hiring and client metrics
During the quarter, the company reported a net addition of 4,209 employees,
taking its overall headcount to 117,095. The BPO headcount currently stands at
29,372 and was the only division to witness additions. Attrition (on LTM basis) was
at 18%.
Exhibit 6: Employee metrics
Particulars
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Software professionals
71,892
72,125
73,590
78,404
80,858
BPO professionals
28,279
27,254
27,326
27,669
29,372
Sales & support
6,966
6,053
6,300
6,813
6,865
Total employees
1,07,137
105,432
107,216
112,886
117,095
Attritions (%)
20
21
21
19
18
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Trend in utilization rate
79
78
78
78
77
77
77
77
76
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Utilization (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
The company added 19 new clients during the quarter, taking the active client
base to 837 (v/s 818 in 2QFY2017), with 5 clients added in US$10mn-20mn+
bracket and other additions mainly in the US$5mn-10mn+ bracket.
Exhibit 8: Client metrics
Particulars
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Total active clients
767
801
807
818
837
US$1mn-5mn
195
221
207
197
228
US$5mn-10mn
40
42
49
56
63
US$10mn-20mn
21
26
23
22
27
US$20mn-50mn
22
23
26
28
24
US$50mn+
13
14
14
14
14
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 1, 2017
4
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Operating margin expands
On EBIT front, the company posted EBIT of 12.4% (12.1% expected) v/s 11.5% in
2QFY2016. In 2QFY2017, the company took a one-time hit of ~USD13m
(-100bps) i.e. expenses associated with restructuring. The absence of these costs in
3QFY2017 proved to be a tailwind for EBIT margin improvement. The utilization
levels improved to 83.0% v/s 82.0% in 2QFY2016.
Exhibit 9: Margin trend (%)
40
35
35.3
30
31.3
30.6
30.7
29.5
25
20
16.9
16.7
15.7
14.9
14.9
15
14.4
10
13.6
12.0
11.5
12.4
5
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Gross margin
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Growth prospects decent: The Management is more optimistic about the
Communications vertical (excluding LCC, where a lot of portfolio rationalization
has taken place). Communication has been showing continued improvement in
both revenue growth and deal wins. We expect a CAGR of 10.6% and 11.5% in
USD and INR revenue respectively over FY2016-18E.
Deal pipeline healthy: Tech Mahindra remains confident of improving revenue
growth, citing healthy deal pipeline along with pick up in discretionary spending,
primarily in the US. The Management sounded confident of demand from BFSI,
Healthcare, Manufacturing and Retail. Tech Mahindra is following a two-pronged
strategy to expand its enterprise business i.e. providing end-to-end offerings in
leadership areas like manufacturing and following a niche offerings-led entry
strategy in areas like BFSI, where it is a challenger. Better cross-sell of services can
help grow marquee accounts post the recent acquisitions. We expect the enterprise
segment growth to be led by broader revival in the markets and deepening of
existing relationships. During 3QFY2017 the company won deals worth TCV of
US$350mn. The pipeline has been healthy and supported by a couple of large
deal wins in Telecom and BFSI.
Inorganic growth initiatives to augment well for company: The company has been
active in the M&A space, with it having acquired Satyam a few years back, to
acquiring LCC and Softgen recently. Softgen’s and LCC’s acquisition was
consolidated in 4QFY2015. LCC is one of the world’s largest independent global
providers of network engineering services to the telecommunications industry with
an estimated annual revenues of more than US$400mn (CY2014), with workforce
of over
5,700 network professionals across five continents and more than
February 1, 2017
5
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
50 countries. With this acquisition, Tech Mahindra will also be addressing a rapidly
growing market opportunity, as telecommunications companies and enterprises
accelerate their network upgrade cycle.
Outlook and valuation
Given the recent acquisitions and healthy order pipeline, the company is expected
to post a healthy US$ and INR CAGR of 10.6% and 11.5% respectively over
FY2016-18E. However, the acquisition of LCC will be margin dilutive in the near
term, leading the FY2016 EBDITA margin to drop to 16.3% from 22.2% in
FY2014. The company, given its success in turnaround of its earlier acquisition
(Satyam), believes it would be able to do the same with the recent acquisitions and
would be able to get close to achieving the 20% EBIT levels in future. Given the
favorable valuation on EV/sales front, where it trades at a significant discount to its
peers, we believe the stock should witness uptrend once the profitability returns to
its mean average. We maintain a Buy rating on the stock.
Exhibit 10: Key assumptions
FY2017E
FY2018E
Revenue growth (US$)
10.3
11.0
USD-INR rate (realized)
66.0
66.0
Revenue growth (`)
12.0
11.0
EBITDA margin (%)
15.5
17.0
Tax rate (%)
23.4
23.4
EPS growth (%)
1.8
21.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: One-year forward PE (x)
800
600
400
200
0
Price
20x
17x
14x
11x
8x
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes profits of Mahindra Satyam from FY2012
February 1, 2017
6
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt Price Upside
FY2018E FY2018E
FY2016-18E
FY2018E FY2018E
(`)
(`)
(%)
EBITDA (%)
P/E (x)
EPS CAGR (%)
EV/Sales (x)
RoE (%)
HCL Tech
Buy
809
1,000
23.6
20.5
12.6
9.6
1.8
17.9
Infosys
Buy
929
1,249
34.4
27.0
13.4
8.4
2.2
21.6
TCS
Accumulate
2,230
2,620
17.5
27.6
15.3
8.5
3.1
33.1
Tech Mahindra
Buy
452
600
32.8
17.0
11.3
11.4
1.1
20.6
Wipro
Buy
457
583
27.5
18.1
11.5
4.0
1.6
17.6
Source: Company, Angel Research.
Company Background
Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group
and British Telecom (BT) to service the latter. Later on, the company started
servicing other external clients as well (solely in the telecom industry). In June
2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam Computers
(now Mahindra Satyam) and now the latter is entirely merged with the company.
The company has recently acquired the companies - LCC and Softgen. These two
acquisitions have been consolidated in 4QFY2015. LCC is one of the world’s
largest independent global providers of network engineering services to the
telecommunications industry. LCC is estimated to have annual revenues of more
than US$400mn (CY2014), with workforce of over 5,700 network professionals
across five continents and more than 50 countries.
February 1, 2017
7
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Net sales
18,831
22,621
26,494
29,673
32,937
Cost of revenues
12,427
15,920
18,323
20,177
22,068
Gross profit
6,404
6,701
8,172
9,495
10,869
% of net sales
34.0
29.6
30.8
32.0
33.0
SG&A expenses
2,220
2,549
3,853
4,896
5,270
% of net sales
11.8
11.3
14.5
16.5
16.0
EBITDA
4,184
4,153
4,318
4,599
5,599
% of net sales
22.2
18.4
16.3
15.5
17.0
Depreciation and amortization
522
611
762
861
955
% of net sales
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
EBIT
3,662
3,541
3,556
3,739
4,644
% of net sales
19.4
15.7
13.4
12.6
14.1
Interest expense
80
30
96
96
96
Other inc., net of forex gain/(loss)
233
106
557
557
557
Profit before tax
3,815
3,618
4,017
4,199
5,105
Provision for tax
752
960
860
983
1,194
% of PBT
19.7
26.5
21.4
23.4
23.4
PAT
3,063
2,659
3,157
3,217
3,910
Exceptional item
-
-
-
-
-
Minority interest
34
31
44
44
44
Reported PAT
3,029
2,628
3,118
3,173
3,866
Adjusted PAT
2,933
2,628
3,118
3,173
3,866
Fully diluted EPS (`)
30.3
27.1
32.2
32.8
39.9
February 1, 2017
8
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Equity capital
234
480
484
484
484
Preference capital
-
-
-
-
-
Share premium
-
-
-
-
-
Profit and loss
8,947
11,768
13,882
15,696
18,204
Other reserves
2
0
0
0
-
Net worth
9,182
12,249
14,367
16,181
18,688
Secured loans
309
621
806
806
806
Unsecured loans
54
54
54
55
56
Total debt
363
675
859
860
861
Other long term liability
376
376
376
377
377
Long-term provisions
414
414
414
415
415
Minority interest
144
160
203
145
145
Amount pending investigation
1,230
895
895
895
895
Total capital employed
11,709
14,768
17,114
18,872
21,380
Gross block
5,460
7,811
8,811
9,811
10,811
Accumulated dep.
(2,866)
(3,477)
(4,239)
(5,099)
(6,055)
Net block
2,594
4,334
4,572
4,712
4,757
Capital WIP
266
266
266
267
268
Total fixed assets
2,861
4,601
4,839
4,979
5,025
Investments
36
2,103
2,103
2,103
2,103
Long term loans and adv.
914
1,306
1,502
1,727
1,986
Interest in TML benefit trust
-
-
-
-
-
Deferred tax asset, net
383
390
390
390
390
Other non-current assets
16
-
-
-
-
Inventories
10
24
11
11
11
Sundry debtors
4,349
5,206
5,987
6,896
7,980
Cash and cash equv.
4,756
2,405
5,127
6,486
8,612
Loans and advances
2,616
3,813
2,998
2,999
2,999
Current investments
-
-
-
-
-
Unbilled revenue
-
-
-
-
-
Sundry creditors
(1,549)
(1,654)
(1,903)
(2,188)
(2,516)
Other liabilities
(1,415)
(1,627)
(1,871)
(2,152)
(2,474)
Provision
(1,267)
(1,799)
(2,068)
(2,379)
(2,736)
Working capital
7,500
6,368
8,280
9,673
11,876
Total capital deployed
11,709
14,768
17,114
18,872
21,380
February 1, 2017
9
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Pre tax profit from operations
3,063
2,659
3,157
3,217
3,910
Depreciation
522
611
762
861
955
Exp. (deffered)/written off/others
-
-
-
-
-
Pre tax cash from operations
3,585
3,270
3,919
4,077
4,865
Other income/prior period ad
233
106
557
557
557
Net cash from operations
3,818
3,376
4,475
4,634
5,422
Tax
(752)
(960)
(860)
(983)
(1,194)
Cash profits
3,066
2,417
3,615
3,651
4,227
(Inc)/dec in
Sundry Debtors
(980)
(857)
(781)
(909)
(1,085)
Inventories
1
(15)
13
-
-
Loans and advances
(1,324)
(1,197)
815
(1)
-
Sundry creditors
692
105
248
285
328
Others
(623)
212
244
281
323
Net trade working capital
(2,233)
(1,752)
540
(344)
(434)
Cashflow from operating activities
832
665
4,155
3,307
3,794
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets
(369)
(1,740)
(238)
(140)
(46)
(Inc)/dec in investments
-
(2,067)
-
-
-
(Inc)/dec in other non current assets
104
16
-
-
-
Cashflow from investing activities
(265)
(3,791)
(238)
(140)
(46)
Inc/(dec) in debt
490
(311)
(185)
(1)
(1)
Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue
-
-
-
-
-
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium
(2)
1
-
-
0
Inc/(dec) in minority interest
(9)
(16)
(43)
59
-
Dividends
(231)
(679)
(1,359)
(1,359)
(1,278)
Others
479
1,781
392
(507)
(343)
Cashflow from financing activities
726
775
(1,195)
(1,808)
(1,622)
Cash generated/(utilised)
1,294
(2,351)
2,722
1,359
2,126
Cash at start of the year
3,463
4,756
2,405
5,127
6,486
Cash at end of the year
4,756
2,405
5,127
6,486
8,612
February 1, 2017
10
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017E
FY2018E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
14.9
16.6
14.0
13.8
11.3
P/CEPS
12.3
13.5
11.3
10.8
9.1
P/BVPS
4.8
3.6
3.0
2.7
2.3
Dividend yield (%)
1.1
1.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
EV/Sales
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.1
EV/EBITDA
9.5
10.2
9.2
8.3
6.5
EV/Total assets
13.8
9.2
8.2
7.7
7.2
Per share data (`)
EPS
30.3
27.1
32.2
32.8
39.9
Cash EPS
36.7
33.5
40.1
41.7
49.8
Dividend
5.0
5.0
12.0
6.0
7.0
Book value
94.9
126.6
148.4
167.2
193.1
Dupont analysis
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT)
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT)
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales)
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets)
6.6
4.9
5.5
6.0
6.6
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity)
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
Operating ROE (%)
33.0
21.5
21.7
19.6
20.7
Return ratios (%)
RoCE (pre-tax)
31.3
24.0
20.8
19.8
21.7
Angel RoIC
54.8
29.3
30.3
30.8
37.2
RoE
31.9
21.5
21.7
19.6
20.7
Turnover ratios( x)
Asset turnover (fixed assets)
6.6
4.9
5.5
6.0
6.6
Receivables days
78
92
89
90
93
Payable days
26
29
28
28
29
February 1, 2017
11
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2017 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Tech Mahindra
1. Financial interest of research analyst or Angel or his Associate or his relative
No
2. Ownership of 1% or more of the stock by research analyst or Angel or associates or relatives
No
3. Served as an officer, director or employee of the company covered under Research
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered under Research
No
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
February 1, 2017
12