3QFY2016 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
February 18, 2016
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma
NEUTRAL
CMP
`3,195
Performance Highlights
Target Price
-
Y/E Mar (` cr)
3QFY2016 2QFY2016
% chg (qoq) 3QFY2015
% chg (yoy)
Investment Period
-
Net Sales
729
692
5.3
646
12.8
Other income
33
40
(15.6)
17
94.3
Stock Info
Gross profit
387
390
(0.9)
360
7.6
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Operating profit
103
121
(14.9)
110
(6.6)
Market Cap (` cr)
27,061
Adj. PAT
82
101
(18.9)
55
50.1
Net Debt (` cr)
(1,631)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Beta
0.37
52 Week High / Low
3,825/2,965
For 3QFY2016, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (GSK Pharma) posted a
Avg. Daily Volume
2,435
disappointing operating performance. For the quarter, the company posted sales
Face Value (`)
10
of `729cr (V/s `730cr expected), a growth of 12.8% yoy. On the operating front,
BSE Sensex
23,382
the company posted a gross margin of 53.1% V/s 55.6% in the corresponding
period of the previous year. The OPM came in at 14.1% V/s 17.0% during the
Nifty
7,108
corresponding period of previous year, mainly owing to lower gross margin on a
Reuters Code
GLAX.BO
yoy basis. Adj. net profit came in at `82cr V/s `55cr in 3QFY2015, a yoy growth
Bloomberg Code
GLXO@IN
of 50.1%. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Results below our expectations: For 3QFY2016, the company posted a
Shareholding Pattern (%)
disappointing operating performance. For the quarter, the company posted sales
Promoters
75.0
of `729cr (V/s `730cr expected), a growth of 12.8% yoy. On the operating front,
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
10.3
the company posted a gross margin of 53.1% V/s 55.6% in the corresponding
FII / NRIs / OCBs
2.5
period of the previous year. The OPM came in at 14.1% V/s 17.0% during the
Indian Public / Others
12.2
corresponding period of previous year, mainly owing to lower gross margin on a
yoy basis. This lead the Adj. net profit came in at `82cr V/s `55cr in 3QFY2015,
a yoy growth of 50.1%.
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr
3yr
Outlook and valuation: Company has a strong balance sheet with cash of
Sensex
(9.6)
(19.7)
20.1
~`2,000cr, which could be used for future acquisitions or higher dividend
Glaxo
2.6
(1.5)
52.5
payouts. On the operational front, we expect the company’s net sales to post a
CAGR of 9.8% to `3,158cr and EPS to register a mere CAGR of 6.6% to `68.3
over FY2015-17E. We remain Neutral on the stock.
3-year price chart
4,000
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (` cr)
CY2013
FY2015*
FY2016E
FY2017E
3,500
3,000
Net sales
2,538
3,272
2,870
3,158
2,500
% chg
(3.2)
28.9
(12.3)
10.0
2,000
Net profit
464
509
504
579
1,500
% chg
(29.4)
9.8
(1.1)
14.9
EPS (`)
54.8
60.1
59.5
68.3
EBITDA (%)
19.9
17.8
20.0
22.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
P/E (x)
58.3
53.1
53.7
46.7
RoE (%)
23.2
26.7
28.5
34.3
RoCE (%)
22.4
26.7
26.8
33.7
P/BV (x)
13.6
14.8
15.8
16.3
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
9.9
7.7
8.8
8.1
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
49.7
43.2
44.1
36.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of February 17, 2016, * 15 months numbers
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2016 - Standalone performance
Y/E March (` cr)
3QFY2016 2QFY2016
% chg (qoq) 3QFY2015
% chg (yoy) 9MFY2016 9MFY2015
% chg
Net Sales
729
692
5.3
646
12.8
2,042
1,994
2.4
Other income
33
40
(15.6)
17
94.3
119
143
(16.6)
Total Income
762
731
4.2
663
14.9
2,162
2,137
1.2
Gross profit
387
390
(0.9)
360
7.6
1,119
1,038
7.8
Gross margin
53.1
56.4
55.6
54.8
52.1
Operating profit
103
121
(14.9)
110
(6.6)
327
364
(10.2)
Operating margin (%)
14.1
17.4
17.0
16.0
18.3
Interest
0
0
-
0
-
0
0
-
Depreciation & Amortisation
8
5
46.5
6
33.5
18
15
22.4
PBT & Exceptional Items
128
155
(17.2)
121
5.8
428
492
(13.1)
Less : Exceptional Items
(3)
(8)
-
(21)
-
(14)
0
Profit before tax
125
147
(15.0)
100
24.3
415
492
(15.8)
Provision for taxation
45
51
(11.7)
55
(18.5)
145
169
(14.0)
Reported PAT
80
96
(16.8)
45
76.4
269
324
(16.8)
Adj. Net profit
82
101
(18.9)
55
50.1
278
324
(14.1)
EPS (`)
9.7
11.9
6.5
32.8
38.2
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note- Full year numbers are consolidated numbers
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2016 - Actual vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation (%)
Net sales
729
730
(0.2)
Other income
33
44
(23.3)
Operating profit
103
131
(21.7)
Tax
45
67
(32.3)
Adj. net profit
82
103
(20.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue grew by 12.8%
For 3QFY2016, the company posted a disappointing operating performance.
Sales came in at `729cr (V/s `730cr expected), a growth of 12.8% yoy.
February 18, 2016
2
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
800
40.0
729
35.0
692
30.0
700
646
25.0
622
613
20.0
600
15.0
10.0
5.0
500
0.0
(5.0)
400
(10.0)
4QFY2015
5QFY2015
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
Sales
Growth (YoY)
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note- Financial year changed to March from Dec in 2015
OPM comes in lower at 14.1%
On the operating front, the gross margins for the quarter came in at 53.1% V/s
55.6% in 3QFY2015. The OPM came in at 14.1% V/s 17.0% in 3QFY2015,
mainly owing to lower GPM on a yoy basis. This is against our expectation of
18.1%.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend
25.0
19.4
20.0
17.4
17.0
16.7
15.0
14.1
10.0
4QFY2015
5QFY2015
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note- Financial year changed to March from Dec in 2015
Net profit lower than estimated
The reported net profit came in at `80cr V/s `45cr in 3QFY2015. However the
Adj. net profit came in at `82cr V/s `55cr in 3QFY2015, a yoy growth of 50.1%.
February 18, 2016
3
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Adjusted net profit trend
150
107
101
95
100
82
55
50
0
4QFY2015
5QFY2015
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
3QFY2016
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note- Financial year changed to March from Dec in 2015
February 18, 2016
4
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
Renewed focus on the Indian market; CY2013 & FY2015 muted on back of DPCO
2013: GSK Pharma is among the top ten players in the Indian pharmaceutical
market, having a market share of ~3.7%. Unlike other MNCs, the company has
been amongst the few which have taken initiatives to grow their businesses in the
Indian market with consistent launch of new products.
Over the last six years, the company has strategically decided to expand its
presence in the Specialty segment. Specialty segment’s contribution to sales has
reached 23% (as of 2013). The segment grew by 9.0% yoy in CY2013. Another
segment which is strong for the company is the area of vaccine, where GSK
Vaccines has become the leading company in the private market for vaccines in
India. The recently introduced vaccine for pneumococcal conjugate disease,
Synflorix, has become the biggest brand in the vaccine portfolio of the company in
the second year of its launch. The efforts of the company in raising awareness
about vaccines and preventable diseases continue with increasing fervor. Also, in
FY2015, GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK), London, UK, entered into three inter-
conditional agreements with Novartis AG (Novartis), Basel, Switzerland. In one
such agreement GSK agreed to acquire Novartis’s Vaccines business (excluding
influenza vaccine) and manufacturing capabilities and facilities from Novartis, and
in the second agreement, GSK agreed to sell the rights of its Marketed Oncology
Portfolio, related R&D activities and AKT Inhibitors currently in development
to Novartis. Globally, these transactions with Novartis were completed on
March 2nd, 2015.
On the other hand, its other key segments like mass markets and mass specialty,
which contribute 60% of its sales, de-grew by 12% in CY2013. This was as a result
of a number of products of the company having come under the DPCO 2013
ruling, resulting in reduction in prices of its drugs, which impacted its sales in
CY2013. Along with this, the supply constraints, mainly from local supplies during
FY2015, have been impacting its performance. However, going forward, with
company’s own facilities coming on stream in FY2017, we expect the volatility in
sales to end. Overall, for FY2015-17E, we expect the domestic formulation
business of the company to grow at a CAGR of 8.0%.
Significant capex plans ahead indicate revival in growth: Global pharmaceutical
major GSK announced an `864cr investment in India to set up a medicine
manufacturing unit. The new facility will substantially increase GSK’s
manufacturing base. The drug maker is proactively building capacity in the country
as it delivers its portfolio of products in areas such as gastroenterology and anti-
inflammatory medicines. When complete, the factory will make pharmaceutical
products for the Indian market at a rate of up to 8bn tablets and 1bn capsules a
year. The facility, expected to be operational by 2017, will include a warehouse,
site infrastructure, and utilities to support the manufacturing and packing of
medicines. It showcases GSK's latest commitment to its manufacturing network in
India where the company has invested `1,017cr over the last decade. The
development is positive and comes after a long lull in terms of investments.
February 18, 2016
5
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Outlook and valuation:
GSK Pharma has a strong balance sheet with cash of ~`2,000cr, which could be
used for future acquisitions or higher dividend payouts. The company’s parent had
announced to increase stake in it through a voluntary open offer, after which the
parent company holds 75.0% stake in its Indian subsidiary. The buy-back of shares
is a strong indicator from the Management towards the performance of its listed
Indian entity, especially as it comes after the recent `864cr investment plan
announced by the company to further its growth prospects in the Indian
pharmaceuticals market. The said investments are expected to fructify by 2017.
On the operational front, we expect the company’s net sales to post a CAGR of
9.8% to
`3,158cr and EPS to register a CAGR of
6.6% to
`68.3 over
FY2015-17E. At current levels, the stock is trading at 53.7x and 46.7x its FY2016E
and FY2017E earnings, respectively. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY2016E
FY2017E
Sales growth (%)
9.6
10.0
Growth in employee expenses (%)
10.0
10.0
Operating margin (%)
20.0
22.1
Capex (` cr)
200
200
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: One-year forward PE
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Price
18x
30x
42x
54x
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 18, 2016
6
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 8: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2017E
FY15-17E
FY2017E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
609
-
-
21.2
2.9
15.0
38.2
31.3
31.2
Aurobindo Pharma Buy
663
856
29.1
15.5
2.5
11.0
15.6
23.5
30.2
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
314
352
12.1
17.8
2.7
12.2
24.6
25.2
29.0
Cipla
Neutral
520
636
22.3
18.0
2.4
12.8
21.4
17.1
16.8
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,961
3,933
32.8
16.6
2.5
10.7
17.2
19.1
20.4
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
313
-
-
15.7
1.7
7.8
15.9
9.4
11.0
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,195
-
-
46.7
8.1
36.6
6.6
33.7
34.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
260
-
-
19.1
2.1
11.4
23.0
19.7
19.7
Ipca labs
Buy
599
900
50.3
21.4
2.2
11.7
17.9
11.8
14.0
Lupin
Neutral
1,731
-
-
25.3
4.4
16.1
13.1
29.6
24.7
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,176
-
-
27.6
3.6
17.1
33.1
27.9
25.5
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
855
950
11.2
31.8
5.6
18.3
8.4
15.8
16.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * December year ending;
February 18, 2016
7
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Company Background
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals is the sixth largest pharmaceutical player in the
Indian market with a market share of ~3.7%. The company’s product portfolio
includes both, prescription medicines and vaccines. GSK Pharma sells prescription
medicines across therapeutic areas such as anti-infectives, dermatology,
gynaecology, diabetes, oncology, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory
diseases. A large portion of the company’s revenue comes from the acute
therapeutic portfolio. However, the company is now scouting for opportunities in
high-growth therapeutic areas such as CVS, CNS, diabetes and oncology. Further,
with a strong parentage, the company plans to increase its product portfolio
through patented launches and vaccines. To fructify the same, the company plans
to enhance its manufacturing assets with its parent company investing `864cr in it;
the capacity expansion is expected to fructify in 2017.
February 18, 2016
8
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Profit & loss statement
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2011
CY2012
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
Gross sales
2,433
2,692
2,589
3,328
2,929
3,222
Less: Excise duty
55
71
51
56
59
64
Net sales
2,378
2,621
2,538
3,272
2,870
3,158
Other operating income
1
29
24
32
6
7
Total operating income
2,379
2,651
2,563
3,305
2,876
3,165
% chg
10.3
11.4
(3.3)
28.9
(13.0)
10.0
Total expenditure
1,635
1,862
2,034
2,690
2,297
2,461
Net raw materials
919
1,104
1,164
1,510
1,263
1,389
Other Mfg costs
122
94
89
115
99
107
Personnel
279
296
362
493
432
476
Other
314
369
420
572
502
489
EBITDA
743
759
504
582
574
696
% chg
(2.0)
2.1
(33.6)
15.5
(1.4)
21.3
(% of Net Sales)
31.2
29.0
19.9
17.8
20.0
22.1
Depreciation& amortisation
20
18
20
25
47
61
EBIT
723
741
484
557
527
636
% chg
(2.5)
2.6
(34.7)
15.0
(5.3)
20.6
(% of Net Sales)
30.4
28.3
19.1
17.0
18.4
20.1
Interest & other charges
0
-
-
-
-
-
Other income
182
175
177
200
200
200
(% of PBT)
Share in profit of Associates
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
905
945
685
789
733
843
% chg
3.9
4.4
(27.5)
15.1
(7.0)
14.9
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
301
101
(26)
33
-
-
PBT (reported)
605
844
711
756
733
843
Tax
176
318
230
279
229
264
(% of PBT)
29.1
37.7
32.3
36.9
31.3
31.3
PAT (reported)
429
526
482
477
504
579
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Prior period items
-
-
-
-
-
-
Exceptional items
-
PAT after MI (reported)
429
526
482
477
504
579
ADJ. PAT
587
657
464
509
504
579
% chg
1.6
12.0
(29.4)
9.8
(1.1)
14.9
(% of Net Sales)
24.7
25.1
18.3
15.6
17.5
18.3
Basic EPS (`)
69
78
55
60
59
68
Fully diluted EPS (`)
69
78
55
60
59
68
% chg
1.6
12.0
(29.4)
9.8
(1.1)
14.9
February 18, 2016
9
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2011
CY2012
CY2013E
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
85
85
85
85
85
85
Preference Capital
-
-
-
-
-
-
Reserves& surplus
1,851
1,922
1,905
1,744
1,624
1,578
Shareholders funds
1,936
2,007
1,990
1,829
1,708
1,663
Minority Interest
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total loans
5
4
4
3
6
7
Other long-term liabilities
5
5
5
5
5
5
Long-term provisions
225
236
242
273
273
273
Deferred tax liability
(62)
(87)
(92)
(83)
(83)
(83)
Total liabilities
2,108
2,165
2,148
2,026
1,909
1,864
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
274
274
323
467
667
867
Less: Acc. depreciation
217
227
247
272
319
379
Net block
57
47
76
195
348
487
Capital work-in-progress
16
44
44
44
44
44
Goodwill
42
42
42
-
-
-
Other non-current assets
36
17
14
-
-
-
Long-term loans and adv.
157
195
238
307
270
297
Investments
112
55
10
0
0
0
Current assets
2,548
2,602
2,614
2,587
2,596
2,520
Cash
2,014
2,067
2,042
1,911
1,735
1,573
Loans & advances
85
134
238
122
287
316
Other
448
401
335
554
574
632
Current liabilities
860
836
889
1,107
1,349
1,484
Net current assets
1,688
1,765
1,725
1,480
1,247
1,036
Mis. Exp. not written off
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total Assets
2,108
2,165
2,148
2,026
1,909
1,864
February 18, 2016
10
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr)
CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 FY2015 FY2016E FY2017E
Profit before tax and exceptional
605
844
711
756
733
843
Depreciation
20
18
20
25
47
61
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(205)
(25)
15
114
58
49
Direct taxes paid
188
318
230
279
229
264
Cash Flow from Operations
232
519
517
616
608
688
(Inc.)/Dec.in fixed assets
39
(28)
(49)
(144)
(200)
(200)
(Inc.)/Dec. in investments
(6)
(57)
(45)
(10)
-
-
Cash Flow from Investing
34
(85)
(93)
(154)
(200)
(200)
Issue of equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
(1)
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend paid (Incl. Tax)
(444)
(491)
(495)
(624)
(624)
(624)
Others
191
110
47
32
41
(26)
Cash Flow from Financing
(254)
(381)
(448)
(593)
(584)
(650)
Inc./(Dec.) in cash
11
52
(25)
(131)
(176)
(162)
Opening cash balances
2,003
2,014
2,067
2,042
1,911
1,735
Closing cash balances
2,014
2,067
2,042
1,911
1,735
1,573
February 18, 2016
11
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Key ratio
Y/E March
CY2011
CY2012
CY2013
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
46.1
41.2
58.3
53.1
53.7
46.7
P/CEPS
60.3
49.8
54.0
53.9
49.2
42.3
P/BV
14.0
13.5
13.6
14.8
15.8
16.3
Dividend yield (%)
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
EV/Sales
10.5
9.5
9.9
7.7
8.8
8.1
EV/EBITDA
33.7
32.9
49.7
43.2
44.1
36.6
EV / Total Assets
11.9
11.5
11.6
12.4
13.3
13.7
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
69.3
77.6
54.8
60.1
59.5
68.3
EPS (fully diluted)
69.3
77.6
54.8
60.1
59.5
68.3
Cash EPS
53.0
64.2
59.2
59.3
65.0
75.5
DPS
45.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
51.0
Book Value
228.5
236.9
234.9
215.9
201.7
196.3
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax)
36.1
34.7
22.4
26.7
26.8
33.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
-
-
-
-
-
-
RoE
30.2
33.3
23.2
26.7
28.5
34.3
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
8.0
9.7
8.6
8.4
5.1
4.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
47
43
48
40
43
38
Receivables (days)
10
14
15
11
13
12
Payables (days)
69
58
54
55
68
74
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
80
74
79
69
98
104
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
(1.0)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(0.9)
Net debt to EBITDA
(2.7)
(2.7)
(4.0)
(3.3)
(3.0)
(2.2)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
-
-
-
-
-
-
February 18, 2016
12
Glaxo | 3QFY2016 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER
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Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
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registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial
ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation /
managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst
has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity
of the company covered by Analyst.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
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latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may
have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Glaxo Pharma
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
February 18, 2016
13