2QFY2016 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 18, 2015
Dishman Pharmaceuticals
NEUTRAL
CMP
`329
Performance Highlights
Target Price
-
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2016 1QFY2016
% chg qoq 2QFY2015
% chg yoy
Investment Period
-
Net sales
374
400
(6.6)
392
(4.8)
Other income
15
5
226.4
8
92.6
Stock Info
Operating profit
84
104
(19.2)
81
3.8
Interest
24
32
(26.0)
18
34.8
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Net profit/(loss)
37
38
(3.3)
33
9.4
Market Cap (` cr)
1,322
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net Debt (` cr)
845
Beta
0.9
For 2QFY2016, Dishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals (Dishman) posted
52 Week High / Low
197 / 79
lower than expected results on the sales front while a higher other income aided
Avg. Daily Volume
272,877
the net profit to come in marginally higher than expected. Sales for 2QFY2016
declined 4.8% yoy to `374cr V/s an expected `429cr and V/s `392cr in
Face Value (`)
2
2QFY2015. The CRAMS segment (`269.6cr) posted a decline of 4.1% while the
BSE Sensex
29,320
other segment (`103.9cr) posted a dip of 6.4% yoy. On the operating front, the
Nifty
8,869
GPM came in at 75.8% V/s 72.3% expected and V/s 69.7% in 2QFY2015.
Reuters Code
DISH.BO
However, in spite of the same, the OPM came in at 22.5% V/s 22.0% expected
Bloomberg Code
DISH@IN
and V/s 20.5% in 2QFY2015. The net profit consequently came in at `36.5cr V/s
`35.6cr expected and V/s `33.4cr in 2QFY2015, a yoy growth of 9.4%. The
Shareholding Pattern (%)
other income during the period came in at `15.1cr V/s `7.8cr in 2QFY2015. We
Promoters
61.4
maintain our Neutral stance on the stock.
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
8.2
Results lower than expected on the sales front: Sales for 2QFY2016 declined
FII / NRIs / OCBs
13.5
4.8% yoy to `374cr V/s an expected `429cr and V/s `392cr in 2QFY2015. The
Indian Public / Others
17.0
CRAMS segment (`269.6cr) posted a decline of 4.1% while the other segment
(`103.9cr) posted a dip of 6.4% yoy. On the operating front, the GPM came in at
75.8% V/s 72.3% expected and V/s 69.7% in 2QFY2015. However, in spite of the
Abs. (%)
3m 1yr 3yr
same, the OPM came in at 22.5% V/s 22.0% expected and V/s 20.5% in
Sensex
4.1
42.1
60.3
2QFY2015. The net profit consequently came in at `36.5cr V/s `35.6cr expected
Dishman
15.1
104.3
165.1
and V/s `33.4cr in 2QFY2015, a yoy growth of 9.4%. The other income during
the period came in at `15.1cr V/s `7.8cr in 2QFY2015.
3-year price chart
Outlook and valuation: We expect Dishman’s net sales and net profit to grow at a
450
CAGR of 10.0% and 15.9%, respectively, over FY2015-17E. At current levels,
400
350
Dishman is trading at 16.5x its FY2017E earnings. We believe the current
300
250
valuations are fair, discounting the recovery well; hence, we maintain our Neutral
200
rating on the stock.
150
100
Key financials (Consolidated)
50
0
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Net sales
y
g
v
b
y
g
v
b
y
g
v
b
y
g
v
1,373
1,575
1,733
1,906
a
u
o
e
a
u
o
e
a
u
o
e
a
u
o
M
A
N
F
M
A
N
F
M
A
N
F
M
A
N
% chg
8.3
14.7
10.0
10.0
Net profit
109.2
119.8
137.0
160.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
% chg
10.7
9.6
14.4
17.4
EPS (`)
13.5
14.8
17.0
19.9
EBITDA margin (%)
23.3
19.9
21.5
21.5
P/E (x)
24.3
22.2
19.4
16.5
RoE (%)
9.8
9.9
10.5
11.2
RoCE (%)
10.2
7.2
8.7
9.5
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
EV/Sales (x)
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6806
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.9
11.0
9.4
8.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 19, 2015
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2016 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2016
1QFY2016
% chg qoq
2QFY2015
% chg yoy 1HFY2016 1HFY2015
% chg
Net sales
374
400
(6.6)
392
(4.8)
774
754
2.6
Other income
15
5
226.4
8
92.6
20
13
51.8
Total income
389
405
(3.9)
400
(2.8)
793
767
3.4
Gross profit
283
318
(10.8)
273
3.6
601
531
13.2
Gross margins
75.8
79.4
69.7
77.7
70.4
Operating profit
84
104
(19.2)
81
3.8
188
155
21.2
OPM (%)
22.5
26.0
20.6
24.3
20.6
Interest
24
32
(26.0)
18
34.8
55
38
45.8
Dep & amortisation
26
26
0.7
24
8.9
52
55
(4.6)
PBT
49
51
(2.7)
47
4.4
100
75
32.8
Provision for taxation
13
13
(0.7)
14
(7.5)
26
19
36.6
Reported net profit
37
38
(3.3)
33
9.4
74
57
29.9
Less : Exceptional items
-
-
-
-
-
-
Minority interest
-
-
-
0
0
PAT after exceptional items
37
38
(3.3)
33
9.4
74
57
29.9
Adj. PAT
37
38
(3.3)
33
9.4
74
57
29.9
EPS (`)
4.5
4.7
4.1
9.2
7.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2016 - Actual Vs Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation
Net sales
374
429
(12.9)
Other income
15
8
92.6
Operating profit
84
90
(6.7)
Interest
24
25
(5.6)
Tax
24
15
62.4
Net profit
37
36
2.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue below expectation: Sales for 2QFY2016 declined by 4.8% yoy to `374cr
V/s an expected `429cr and V/s `392cr in 2QFY2015. The CRAMS (`269.6cr)
segment posted a decline of 4.1%, while the other segment (`103.9cr) posted a
dip of 6.4% yoy.
Carbogen Amcis (CRAMS) (`188.4cr of revenue in 2QFY2016) de-grew by 5.4%
yoy, while the Indian CRAMS (`57.0cr of revenue in 2QFY2016) de-grew by 9.4%
yoy. Other CRAMS - UK (`24.3cr of revenue in 2QFY2016) posted a growth of
26.6% yoy. Carbogen Amcis’ revenues declined as a result of minimum inventory
build-up as required by the customers before actual sales. Hence the sales for the
quarter will be realized in 3QFY2016. Dishman India focused more on high
margin orders which resulted in lower revenues. CRAMS UK revenues witnessed
healthy growth driven by strong non-GMP orders from customers.
The MM segment posted sales of `104.0cr, a yoy de-growth of 6.4%. The Vitamin
D business grew by 7.9% yoy to `53cr, while others posted a de-growth of 17.8%
yoy during the period.
November 20, 2015
2
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend
430
421
420
410
400
400
392
390
386
380
374
370
360
350
2QFY2015
3QFY2015
4QFY2015
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM above expectation: On the operating front, the GPM came in at 75.8% V/s
72.3% expected and V/s 69.7% in 2QFY2015. The OPM came in at 22.5% V/s
22.0% expected and V/s 20.5% in 2QFY2015. In terms of segments, CRAMS India
and Carbogen Amcis majorly focused on high margin orders.
The Vitamin D segment witnessed higher margins due to focus on high value
products like cholesterol and certain Vitamin D analogues. Further the segment
also benefitted from bulk purchase of raw materials at lower prices. The Others
segment witnessed healthy margins driven by profitable operations at the China
facility which recorded a 40% EBITDA margin during 2QFY2016.
Exhibit 4: OPM trend (%)
28.0
26.0
26.0
24.0
22.5
22.0
20.6
20.0
18.2
18.0
16.0
17.3
14.0
12.0
10.0
2QFY2015
3QFY2015
4QFY2015
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit marginally higher than expectation: The net profit consequently came in
at `36.5cr V/s `35.6cr expected and V/s `33.4cr in 2QFY2015, a yoy growth of
9.4%. The other income during the quarter came in at `15.1cr V/s `7.8cr in
2QFY2015.
November 20, 2015
3
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Net profit trend
50
39
40
38
37
33
30
24
20
10
0
2QFY2015
3QFY2015
4QFY2015
1QFY2016
2QFY2016
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Focus on profitability: Dishman has been incurring a capex of around
~`100cr on an annual basis over the last couple of years. With the major
capex out, the company is now focused on improving the overall profitability
of the business. The same is evident in the improvement in OPM from 16.4%
in FY2011 to 23.3% in FY2014, thereby improving the overall profitability of
the company. The RoCE of the company improved from 5.5% in FY2011 to
10.2% in FY2014. Going forward, with focus on profitability, the company has
reduced its capex plans (~`30-50cr in FY2015) and lays focus on sweating its
assets and restructuring the business, which will lead to improvement in
profitability over the medium term. We expect the ROCE to improve to 9.5% in
FY2017E from 7.7% in FY2012.
CRAMS stabilizing: CRAMS, which contributes by around 65.1% to the overall
business has stabilised over the last two years, after a lull, posting a robust
growth of 14% in FY2012-14. As of March 2015, Carbogen Amcis has a
budgeted total order book of over `673cr for FY2016 and a part of the same
is in hands. In its Oncology Hippo Unit 9, the Management expects to book
more incremental revenues, where EBITDA margins are high at 40-50%. As
regards the Vitamin-D business, the Management expects to scale it up to
`300cr with a 20% EBITDA margin.
Outlook and valuation
We expect Dishman’s net sales and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 10.0% and
15.9%, respectively, over FY2015-17E. At current levels, Dishman is trading at
16.5x its FY2017E earnings. We believe the current valuations are fair, discounting
the recovery well; hence, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
November 20, 2015
4
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Exhibit 6: One-year forward PE
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
2x
6x
10x
14x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Recommendation summary
Company
Reco
CMP Tgt. price Upside
FY2017E
FY15-17E
FY2017E
(`)
(`)
% PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
653
-
-
27.3
3.9
19.2
26.1
30.3
30.2
Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate
817
872
6.7
18.7
3.0
13.1
15.6
23.5
30.2
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
412
-
-
23.4
3.5
16.0
24.6
25.2
29.0
Cipla
Neutral
635
-
-
22.0
3.0
15.7
21.4
17.1
16.8
Dr Reddy's
Buy
3,287
3,933
19.7
18.4
2.8
11.9
17.2
19.1
20.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
329
-
-
16.5
1.7
8.1
15.9
9.5
11.7
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,145
-
-
46.0
8.0
36.3
6.6
33.7
34.3
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
306
-
-
22.5
2.4
13.4
23.0
19.7
19.7
Ipca labs
Buy
774
900
16.3
27.6
2.7
14.7
17.9
11.8
14.0
Lupin
Neutral
1,807
-
-
26.4
4.6
16.9
13.1
29.6
24.7
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,483
-
-
29.6
3.9
18.6
33.1
27.9
25.5
Sun Pharma
Buy
743
950
27.9
27.6
4.8
15.7
8.4
15.8
16.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
Background
Dishman commenced business in
1983 as a QUAT (Speciality Chemicals)
company and has since emerged to be a global leader in the segment. Since
1997, Dishman has diversified its interests towards the CRAMS segment. The
company has now established itself as a respected and preferred outsourcing
partner to various pharma majors, offering a portfolio of development, scale-up
and manufacturing services. The company caters to the customers' needs ranging
from chemical development to commercial manufacture and supply of APIs.
Dishman has large scale manufacturing facilities in India and China.
November 20, 2015
5
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
Gross sales
1,127
1,273
1,387
1,582
1,750
1,925
Less: Excise duty
6
6
14
7
17
19
Net sales
1,121
1,268
1,373
1,575
1,733
1,906
Other operating income
3
5
12
44
44
44
Total operating income
1,124
1,272
1,385
1,619
1,776
1,950
% chg
13.4
13.2
8.9
16.9
9.7
9.8
Total expenditure
900
982
1,053
1,262
1,361
1,495
Net raw materials
384
376
373
535
485
515
Other mfg costs
83
95
103
77
130
143
Personnel
294
351
412
423
533
604
Other
139
161
164
227
213
233
EBITDA
222
285
320
314
372
411
% chg
36.7
28.7
12.2
(2.1)
18.6
10.4
(% of Net Sales)
19.8
22.5
23.3
19.9
21.5
21.5
Depreciation & amortisation
77
84
109
151
163
166
EBIT
145
202
212
163
209
245
% chg
55.4
38.8
5.0
(23.0)
28.5
16.9
(% of Net Sales)
13.0
15.9
15.4
10.3
12.1
12.8
Interest & other charges
73
79
92
90
95
99
Other Income
13
15
25
42
25
25
(% of PBT)
15.2
10.8
15.8
26.5
13.7
11.7
Share in profit of associates
-
-
-
-
-
-
Recurring PBT
88
143
156
159
183
215
% chg
(4.0)
61.4
9.5
1.8
14.7
17.4
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
0.4
(2.4)
0.2
PBT (reported)
88
145
156
159
183
215
Tax
31.2
45.0
47.1
39.4
45.7
53.6
(% of PBT)
35.4
31.0
30.1
24.8
25.0
25.0
PAT (reported)
57
100
109
120
137
161
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
-
0
0
-
-
-
Less: Minority interest (MI)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Prior period items
(0)
-
-
-
-
-
PAT after MI (reported)
57
100
109
120
137
161
ADJ. PAT
57
99
109
120
137
161
% chg
(28.7)
73.1
10.7
9.6
14.4
17.4
(% of Net Sales)
5.1
7.9
8.0
7.6
7.9
8.4
Basic EPS (`)
7.1
12.2
13.5
14.8
17.0
19.9
Fully Diluted EPS (`)
7.1
12.2
13.5
14.8
17.0
19.9
% chg
(28.7)
73.1
10.7
9.6
14.4
17.4
November 20, 2015
6
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
16
16
16
16
16
16
Share application money
2
4
4
-
-
-
Reserves & surplus
914
1,026
1,161
1,222
1,347
1,497
Shareholders funds
932
1,046
1,181
1,238
1,363
1,513
Minority interest
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total loans
850
800
880
836
900
900
Other Long Term Liabilities
66
10
0
73
73
73
Long Term Provisions
41
43
64
97
97
97
Deferred tax liability
45
58
68
63
63
63
Total liabilities
1,933
1,956
2,193
2,307
2,496
2,646
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
1,264
1,686
1,946
2,019
2,049
2,099
Less: Acc. depreciation
440
524
688
813
976
1,142
Net block
824
1,162
1,258
1,206
1,073
957
Capital work-in-progress
418
97
79
142
142
142
Goodwill
209
211
247
235
235
235
Long-Term Loans and Adv.
26
25
25
38
38
38
Investments
155
123
182
188
230
253
Current Assets
626
673
760
1,000
1,208
1,529
Cash
24
21
35
36
49
254
Loans & Advances
146
241
269
299
327
360
Other
457
581
457
665
832
915
Current liabilities
326
335
361
502
430
508
Net Current Assets
301
338
399
498
778
1,021
Non CA
-
-
2
-
-
-
Total Assets
1,933
1,956
2,193
2,307
2,496
2,646
November 20, 2015
7
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016E FY2017E
Profit before tax
88
145
156
159
183
215
Depreciation
77
84
109
151
163
166
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital
27
(178)
63
(103)
(310)
(60)
Less: Other income
13
15
25
42
25
25
Direct taxes paid
(31)
(45)
(47)
(39)
(46)
(54)
Cash Flow from Operations
173
144
179
180
181
182
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(215)
(101)
(242)
(136)
(30)
(50)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
0
-
-
-
-
-
Other income
13
15
25
42
25
25
Cash Flow from Investing
(201)
(85)
(217)
(94)
(5)
(25)
Issue of Equity
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
47
(105)
92
62
64
-
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
(10)
(11)
(11)
(11)
(11)
(11)
Others
(27)
54
312
39
23
72
Cash Flow from Financing
10
(62)
393
90
76
61
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
(18)
(3)
354
176
252
218
Opening Cash balances
43
24
21
35
36
49
Closing Cash balances
24
21
35
36
49
254
November 20, 2015
8
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Key Ratio
Y/E March
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016E
FY2017E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
46.5
26.9
24.3
22.2
19.4
16.5
P/CEPS
19.9
14.4
12.2
9.8
8.9
8.1
P/BV
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
Dividend yield (%)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
EV/Sales
3.1
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
EV/EBITDA
15.7
12.0
10.9
11.0
9.4
8.0
EV / Total Assets
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic)
7.1
12.2
13.5
14.8
17.0
19.9
EPS (fully diluted)
7.1
12.2
13.5
14.8
17.0
19.9
Cash EPS
16.5
22.8
27.0
33.5
37.1
40.5
DPS
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Book Value
115.5
129.6
146.4
153.4
169.0
187.5
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin
13.0
15.9
15.4
10.3
12.1
12.8
Tax retention ratio
64.6
69.0
69.9
75.2
75.0
75.0
Asset turnover (x)
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
ROIC (Post-tax)
5.1
7.3
7.3
5.7
6.8
7.8
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
5.5
6.6
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.3
Leverage (x)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
Operating ROE
4.8
7.8
7.0
4.2
5.9
7.5
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax)
7.7
10.4
10.2
7.2
8.7
9.5
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
11.3
13.9
12.2
8.7
10.6
12.0
ROE
6.3
10.0
9.8
9.9
10.5
11.2
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
Inventory / Sales (days)
96
99
100
106
117
135
Receivables (days)
53
47
20
21
24
27
Payables (days)
48
46
34
36
34
28
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)
90
85
90
93
122
140
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
Net debt to EBITDA
3.7
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.6
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
2.0
2.6
2.3
1.8
2.2
2.5
November 20, 2015
9
Dishman Pharmaceuticals | 2QFY2016 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with
CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is
a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing
/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial
ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation /
managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst
has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity
of the company covered by Analyst.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
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document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
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While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
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Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may
have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Dishman Pharmaceuticals
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)
November 20, 2015
10
